The market environment is difficult for traders since global growth concerns and uncertainties about diverging monetary policies cloud the overall outlook. This uncertainty leads to risk-aversion,which can be seen in volatile but unsteady market swings. Both of our major pairs were lacking a clear direction yesterday and ended the trading day unchanged against the U.S. dollar. This meant that traders had to struggle with fake-outs and still have to be patient and wait for better market conditions.
Let’s have a look at the technical side:
The euro was the worst performing currency recently and failed to provide profitable chances. On a monthly basis we see that the pair peaked at a high of 1.1460, but most of the period, it remained trading sideways between 1.1330 and 1.11. Those who are looking for long-term entries, should focus on the area above 1.1460/65 for buy orders and on the area below 1.10 for sell orders. For short-term investments, we still consider the 1.1280 level as an opportunity to buy the euro towards 1.1320/50. Short-entries, however, could be interesting below 1.1190 and below 1.1080. Remember that there is a key support at 1.1020.
Today traders should watch the German Unemployment numbers, due for release at 7:55 GMT and the Eurozone CPI report, scheduled for release at 9:00 GMT.
The British pound weakened eight consecutive trading days but found a slight support around 1.5130. The trend is our friend and we should bear in mind, that GBP may be vulnerable to further losses, but there could be a lower support area at around 1.5110 – 1.5090. If sterling declines significantly below 1.5130, we will focus on the 1.51-level, which could prompt the currency for a recovery. However, above 1.5210, chances are that sterling bulls drive the cable towards 1.5250 and 1.5285.
U.K. Gross Domestic Product is scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT today.
The most important piece of economic U.S. data will be the release of ADP’s employment change report (12:15 GMT). Market participants pay close attention to this report as it is considered to be a leading indicator for nonfarm payrolls.
Furthermore, FOMC members Yellen and Bullard are scheduled to speak on Community Banking today at 19:00 GMT.
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