Decreased speculation on Fed Rate Hike

Dear Traders,

Chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike have fallen to 30 percent on the back of weaker U.S. data and China’s  slowdown, essentially complicating the Fed’s decision tomorrow. The latest U.S. reports missed expectations and fueled speculation that the central bank could delay the first rate hike.

The euro bounced off its current support area at 1.1255 and is currently heading for a reconquest of the 1.13-mark. The British Pound declined on weak U.K. inflation data, indicating that an early 2016 BoE rate increase is less likely.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on today’s U.K. labor market data, scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT.

Technically, chances are that GBP could experience a small relief rally towards 1.5440.

GBP/USD

The next resistance zone will be at 1.54. If wee see a sustained break above this level, next bullish targets could be at 1.5440 and 1.5470. With a break below 1.5330, on the other hand, we expect bearish momentum to increase.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot16.9.15

Focus on Consumer Prices

Consumer Price Indices from the Eurozone and the U.S. are scheduled for release today. Traders should pay attention to these reports, as any surprises could trigger volatile moves.

9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI

12:30 USA CPI

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Will today’s economic data trigger big moves?

Dear Traders,

Market participants are very cautious ahead of the Fed decision on Thursday. Price fluctuations have been muted as a result. Nonetheless short-traders were able to gain a small profit by yesterday’s decline in the EUR and GBP.

Today, we will pay closer attention to important economic data such as U.K. Consumer Prices, the German ZEW survey and U.S. Retail Sales. Each report could have a more or less significant impact on the currency pairs, but since the market is dominated by uncertainty and risk-aversion, the reaction to these reports could result in unsteady and choppy swings.

EUR/USD

Technically we see the next major resistance zone at around 1.14. Euro traders might look for an upside move until 1.14/ 1.1420. However, with a significant break below 1.1250, we expect the euro to depreciate towards 1.1180 and 1.11.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot15.9.15

 

Important economic data:

8:30 UK CPI

9:00 EUR German ZEW Survey

12:30 USA Advance Retail Sales

(timezone: GMT)

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Relief Rally ahead of next week’s Fed decision

Dear Traders,

The Bank of England’s minutes sounded, against all odds, less dovish even though only 1 MPC member voted to raise rates. The pound advanced as a result and broke easily above the 1.54-mark. BoE policymakers said global developments haven’t shaken their conviction that the time for a rate increase is approaching. However, the BoE is likely to wait for the Fed to do the first step and see how the market reacts.

Sterling bulls had several profitable chances to gain profits. Today, traders should keep an eye on the BoE Inflation expectations, scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT. GBP marked a current resistance at 1.5475 and bulls could be looking for prices above that level in order to drive GBP for a test of 1.55.

Euro traders had to be patient and must unfortunately record further losses before the euro finally showed some upward momentum towards $ 1.13. Given the uncertainty going into next week’s Federal Reserve decision, volatility should be on the rise, leading to a possible relief rally towards 1.14 in the EUR/USD.

Important economic data for today:

12:30 USA PPI reports

14:00 USA Michigan Confidence 

Have a beautiful weekend!

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Euro is losing strength – GBP at lofty height

Dear Traders,

After the euro’s brief rebound against the greenback, the common currency failed to extend its gains. We believe that the upside potential in the EUR/USD could be limited ahead of the highly anticipated FOMC meeting next week. A current resistance is seen at 1.1215 and euro bulls would need to clear that hurdle significantly in order to revive fresh bullish momentum towards 1.1270. However, we generally favor a bearish bias on the euro and expect the downward pressure to increase in the near term.

The British Pound experienced a significant recovery against the U.S. dollar. Ahead of tomorrow’s BoE monetary policy announcement, investors might be risk-averse, dampening the demand for sterling. As long as GBP remains below its next resistance at 1.5435, we expect the currency to be vulnerable to bearish corrections.

U.K. Industrial Production and Trade Balance are scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT. Apart from that, there are no major economic reports due for release today.

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Upside breakouts

Dear Traders,

With no market-moving data and U.S. markets being closed for the Labor Day yesterday, trading has been very tranquilly. While the euro continued to trade consolidated between 1.1175 and 1.1120 , the British Pound gained some ground above 1.52 and climbed towards the 1.53-mark. Early this morning sterling has surged significant above 1.53, facing a next hurdle at 1.5360.

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product reports are scheduled for release today at 9:00 GMT. If numbers deviate from expectations, we may see further volatile swings in the EUR/USD.

Relief Rally in the EUR/USD

Technically, prices formatted an ascending triangle early this morning, which favored upcoming bullish momentum with a break of 1.1180. It has already proved correct when the euro jumped above 1.12 in the early trading hours. We see a next resistance at around 1.1236.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Further Dollar strength ahead?

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Draghi delivered – All eyes on U.S. Payrolls now

Dear Traders,

As expected, ECB president Mario Draghi talked down the euro by emphasizing that asset purchases can be adjusted in terms of size and duration if needed. He signaled that European Central Bank officials might expand stimulus if economy weakens further and inflation does not return to the ECB’s goal of 2 percent. The central bank cut its outlook for inflation and growth for each year through 2017. Draghi indicated that inflation rates may drop below zero before accelerating in 2016 and 2017. Until then, “there aren’t special limits to the possibilities that the ECB has in gearing up monetary policy,” he said.

In other words, traders got what they were looking for: A dovish Draghi, who sends the euro on a downhill ride.

Today, the market’s attention is focused on the August Non-Farm Payrolls report. Market participants are looking for a confirmation whether the U.S. economy is strong enough for a September liftoff amid recent turmoil in global markets. The odds for a Federal Reserve rate-hike at the September meeting are currently at 30 percent.

A weaker U.S. job report, however, may disappoint dollar bulls and lead to a short squeeze in the euro and GBP.

Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings are scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT.

We wish you successful trades and a beautiful weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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What will Draghi do?

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