U.S. Dollar Whipsawed On FOMC

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Dear Traders,

Yesterday was none of our favorite trading days with the U.S. dollar showing a whipsaw performance after the FOMC statement failed to provide clear signals on potential tightening in June. One man’s joy is another man’s sorrow: The market’s response to the central bank’s statement has probably been the most positive scenario for the Fed, as policy makers want to avoid overreactions in the price development. For traders, however, it was rather a struggle against choppy swings and fake-outs. We therefore suffered losses instead of benefiting from the volatile fluctuations.

The statement came in somewhat more hawkish, showing that policy makers are less concerned about global risks but it did not provide any hints for a rate hike in June. The greenback whipsawed in response on the unconvincing statement. With still more than six weeks to go before the next Fed meeting in June the focus in the near-term will be on inflation and labor market data from the U.S.

Today, we have the German Unemployment report scheduled for release at 7:55 UTC, followed by the German Consumer Price at 12:00 UTC. If data disappoint the euro could weaken.

Furthermore, the U.S. first-quarter GDP report is due for release at 12:30 UTC and in case of any surprises, the USD may react strongly.

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Despite Low Volatility Bulls Still Gain The Upper Hand

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Dear Traders,

Despite worse-than-expected German business-confidence data the euro has held up well against the U.S. dollar Monday. Although prices fluctuated within a confined band of only 40 pips, the euro showed resilience against the greenback ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting. With the euro remaining firmly above 1.1240, we expect another test of the 1.13-barrier, which may result in an upswing towards 1.1335 and 1.1355. However, while we do not expect a shift in sentiment a test of these lower resistances might be likely before the Fed statement.

The British pound tested the 1.45-mark but was unable to sustainably maintain the high price level. Whether we will see an extended upside move remains to be seen and should also hinge on the performance of the U.S. dollar. Above 1.4520 the pound could extend its gains towards 1.4560 and 1.4590. However, below 1.4480 it could fall back towards 1.4450 and 1.4410.

Traders should keep an eye on important economic data from the U.S. such as Durable Goods Orders, scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence due at 14:00 UTC.

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Fed To Pave The Way For Renewed Dollar Strength?

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you to a new trading week which promises to be an interesting one with the Federal Reserve meeting and plenty of economic news scheduled for release throughout the entire week. While the economic calendar includes plenty of important news, such as first-quarter GDP numbers from the U.S., U.K. and the Eurozone, the main focus will be on the FOMC statement and the Fed’s plan to raise interest rates twice this year. The Fed is not expected to change monetary policy this month but market participants are eager to learn whether policy makers changed their outlook for rate increases in 2016 or maintain their hawkish policy stance.

Accordingly, the U.S. dollar will be back in focus this week and should determine the direction in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Apart from the FOMC meeting, traders will be watching Gross Domestic Product reports and German Unemployment numbers, scheduled for release on Thursday and Friday. The euro dropped as low as 1.1220 on Friday, confirming our presumption of renewed bearish momentum although euro bears have been fooled by the final upswing towards 1.14 before a reversal occurred. The euro would now need to break below 1.1190 in order to revive fresh bearish momentum towards 1.1150 and 1.1080. We expect the 1.1150 and 1.1080/70-levels to lend a crucial support to the EUR/USD before the focus shifts to a break of 1.1050 and 1.10. On the upside, possible resistance levels are currently seen at 1.13, 1.1335 and 1.1360.

GBP/USD

The most important piece of U.K. data will be GDP numbers due for release on Wednesday. Taking a look at the daily chart we see sterling trading within an uptrend channel approaching important resistance levels. The next crucial resistance level is at 1.45, from where sterling will have the opportunity to start a decline. If the pair is able to break above 1.4515, next resistances are seen at 1.4560 and 1.46. As we generally maintain a bearish stance in this pair, we are looking for resistance levels which could cap on gains in the British pound. A current support-zone is seen at 1.43 – 1.4285.

Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot25.4.16

This week starts off with the German IFO Index, due at 8:00 UTC today, a report which could have a short-term effect on the euro. Furthermore U.S. New Home Sales are scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC.

We wish everyone many profitable trades and a nice week.

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Euro And Cable Benefited From Weakening U.S. Dollar

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Dear Traders,

The euro and British pound benefited from the weakening U.S. dollar, which fell sharply after U.S. Housing data slumped more than projected in March. Moreover, the euro is currently supported by speculation European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is unlikely to announce further monetary easing at the ECB meeting tomorrow. While the central bank’s easing measures start to take effect, the danger for the ECB is the currency strength of the euro, undermining the economic improvements. Draghi could therefore try to talk down the currency but since the central bank rhetoric has somewhat ceased to have effect, the euro could even extend its recent uptrend instead of being vulnerable to losses.

Ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting we expect the euro to range-trade between 1.1410/30 and 1.1335. Above 1.1430, upside extensions are possible until 1.15, whereas below 1.1330, the euro may fall back towards 1.1250/20.

GBP/USD

The British pound climbed above 1.44 but found a current resistance around the 1.4420-level. The U.K. Labor Market report is scheduled for release today at 8:30 UTC and should have an impact on the pound. If data surprise to the upside, sterling could extend its gains towards 1.4450 and 1.4490. However, traders should bear in mind that the currency pair trades near crucial resistance levels and reversals are becoming more likely.

Looking at the 4-hour chart we see an overall downtrend and a current consolidation phase. Prices recently fluctuated within 1.4450 and 1.4050. If GBP is able to break significantly above 1.4430/50, we could see a test of 1.45. However, if the pair refrains from trading above 1.44, we favor the downtrend and focus on lower targets at 1.4310, 1.4260 and 1.42.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot20.4.16

From the U.S. we have Existing Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories scheduled for release at 14:00 and 14:30 UTC.

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Bullish Bias As Risk-Appetite Increases

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Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s best performer was the British pound, which rallied towards 1.43 as investors shrugged off oil’s losses and Chancellor Osborne’s warning of “permanent” damage should U.K. vote to leave the European Union. While we continue to favor a bearish stance in the GBP/USD, extensions of the recent upward movement might be possible until 1.4380 and 1.4430. Once the pair breaks above 1.4330 a next crucial resistance zone could be at 1.4370-95, from where reversals are becoming more likely. On the bottom side, we expect the 1.4250-level to lend a short-term support to the currency pair. However, if GBP falls back below 1.4225, a lower target could be at 1.4160.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will give evidence to the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee today at 14:30 GMT. This event is likely to be this week’s fundamental highlight for the pound sterling and could affect the currency accordingly. If he favors a pro-EU stance, it should be supportive for the pound.

The euro did not show much movement Monday and traded within a narrow 60-pips trading range. None of our entries was triggered but euro traders hope for major movements today before the German and Eurozone ZEW Surveys are scheduled for release. In case of a major improvement, the euro could head for a test of 1.1350. Here we see a crucial resistance level, which could cap on gains in the EUR/USD. The common currency would need to break significantly above 1.1365 in order to revive bullish strength towards 1.14. On the downside, we will focus on a break below 1.13 in order to sell the euro towards lower targets at 1.1275 and 1.1250.

Important events and economic reports:

9:00 EUR ZEW Surveys

12:30 USA Housing Starts and Building Permits

14:30 UK Carney’s Testimony

(Time zone GMT)

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Subdued Market Activity

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Dear Traders,

There was only little consistency in the performance of the U.S. dollar Thursday. U.S. Consumer prices were below expectations and as long as inflation fails to pick up, there is no call for rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Rather, the Fed may tend to be even more restrained in maintaining a hawkish stance, at least until inflation accelerates.

The recent price fluctuations in both major pairs left much do be desired for day-traders and the speculative interest was relatively muted. For now, we must wait until the risk appetite of investors increases in order to profit accordingly from new opportunities in the market.

The only interesting economic data releases could be U.S. Industrial Production, due at 13:15 GMT and University of Michigan Confidence at 14:00 GMT. Whether these reports will affect the USD remains to be seen.

EUR/USD: The euro traded between 1.1295 and 1.1230. If the pair falls back below 1.1235 we expect next crucial price levels to be at 1.1195 and 1.1170. However, if the euro climbs above 1.13 a next resistance is seen at 1.1330/50.

GBP/USD: The cable currently formatted a narrow trading range between 1.4170 and 1.4130. Above 1.4170, sterling must significantly break through 1.42 in order to regain bullish strength. Below 1.4130, the focus remains on the 1.41-mark but once this level is breached to the downside, GBP could slide towards 1.4050 and 1.40.

We wish you profitable trades and a wonderful weekend.

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U.S. Data To Help The Greenback Regain Strength?

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Dear Traders,

The British pound extended its gains towards 1.4350 after CPI data came in stronger than expected, reaching the highest level since December 2014. Nonetheless, the pound was not able to maintain the high price level and finally ended the day unchanged against the U.S. dollar. Our focus now shifts to the next support level at 1.4225. In case of a break below 1.4225, lower targets are seen at 1.4207, 1.4195 and 1.4170. The market’s attention is focused on U.S. Retail Sales, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT and as the figure is a significant market mover and expected to show a rise in March, market participants might be inclined to be bullish on USD ahead of the report.

The euro peaked at a yearly high of 1.1465 before prices quickly reversed direction and dropped back to below 1.14. The attention is now directed to the lower band of the euro’s current trading range. A break below 1.1335 could boost bearish momentum and send the euro towards 1.13 and 1.1285. Below 1.1280 we expect the euro to decline toward the 1.12-level. However, in case of renewed upward momentum, we will pay attention to current resistance levels at 1.14 and 1.1430 but bullish movements exceeding these levels could be limited until 1.1470.

The U.S. Retail Sales report will be the most important piece of economic data today and Industrial Production figures from the Eurozone (9:00 GMT) and the Fed’s Beige Book (18:00 GMT) could thus take a backseat.

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British Pound Advanced On Risk Appetite While The Euro Trades Motionless

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Dear Traders,

The best performer was the British pound which climbed towards 1.43 and provided sterling bulls a good profit. As already assumed in yesterday’s analysis the odds seemed to be in favour of an upswing although there were no fundamental drivers supporting the bullish bias. Speculations about higher inflation could have been a possible reason for the pound’s recent price rice. Inflation accelerated to 0.4 percent annually in March from 0.3 percent in February, forecasts show. U.K. Consumer Price Indices are scheduled for release today at 8:30 GMT and if data are in line with expectations, sterling could begin to give up its gains as a slight uptick has already priced in. Traders should bear in mind that the outlook for the pound remains fragile as long as uncertainty dominates the currency ahead of the EU referendum in June. However, given the recent upward movement the cable may also extend its gains towards 1.4325 and 1.4365, provided GBP is able to break through the 1.43-barrier. On the bottom side we expect the 1.4175-level to lend a short-term support for the currency pair.

All quiet in the EUR/USD. This has been the motto for euro traders as the euro’s sideways movement provides nothing but losses. The current resistance at 1.1450 proved to be intact while the 1.1372 prevented prices from falling. Amidst the sideways trend, breakout traders searched in vain for any profitable trading chances and struggled with false breakouts. However, we know that a sideways trend with fluctuations confined to a narrow band usually does not last very long. We are therefore looking for upcoming breakouts of that narrow trading range.

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Risk-Aversion Leads To Sideways Trends

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Dear Traders,

There is not much news to report on the currency market. The performance of both major currency pairs showed only little consistency Thursday, although we saw a slight shift towards the U.S. dollar. However, any attempts to sell both euro and cable have not been paid off. The unsteady fluctuations can be attributed to risk-averse investors who stayed at the sideline as market-moving data is lacking.

The gathering of  the four Federal Reserve chiefs Janet Yellen, Ben S. Bernanke, Alan Greenspan and Paul Volcker did not deliver any new insights into the Fed’s guidance. Yellen said “We are coming close to our assigned congressional goal of maximum employment”, even though she still sees some slack remaining in the U.S. labor market.

With no market-moving news we expect both currency pairs to trade sideways within the frequently discussed price levels. The only piece of economic data scheduled for release today will be U.K. Industrial and Manufacturing Production numbers (8:30 GMT). If data comes in weaker than forecast, the pound could drop below its current support at 1.4045. The focus will then shift to the 1.40-barrier and in case of a break below 1.3985 GBP could make a move towards 1.3920. Any pullbacks, however, could be limited until 1.4110 and 1.4150.

Have a nice weekend.

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Will Draghi Liberate The Euro From Its Narrow Trading Range?

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Dear Traders,

We can call the latest FOMC minutes a non-event for traders as the minutes revealed nothing fundamentally new. Several Federal Reserve policy makers argued against an April interest rate hike while some favored it. Although the minutes reflect inconsistency in terms of the timing of rate hikes, the Fed’s fundamental stance remains more hawkish than dovish. All Fed officials agreed on the relative health of the U.S. economy amidst persistent global risks. Nonetheless, several officials advocated a cautious approach as they worried that slowing global growth could hurt U.S. exports and reduce corporate investments.

While market participants see no chance of an April hike the odds increase slightly for a June hike but first top 50 percent for a rate increase in December. The market has a difficulty in pricing in rate hikes for 2016 but if future U.S. data show that the economy continues to improve, the dollar will begin to rally.

The British pound confirmed its bearish bias and showed that there is still room for a further decline ahead of the upcoming U.K. referendum in June. The currency pair tested the 1.40-support but was able to recover most of its losses towards the end of the day. For any bullish engagements the 1.4175-level should be of primary interest as a break above that level could send the pound towards 1.4230. However the trend is down and if GBP falls back below 1.4080, we could see another dip lower.

The euro is still captured between 1.1430 and 1.13 and every attempt to break significantly above 1.14 has resulted in a reversal. Once the 1.1440-level has been breached to the upside we might see an attempt to test the 1.1480/1.15 level. However, if the pair remains below 1.14 we will favor a bearish stance and focus again on a break below 1.1335 and further 1.13. A break below 1.1285 could drive the euro as low as 1.1240/20.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot7.4.16

The most important risk event for the euro will be the speech by ECB President Mario Draghi in a meeting at the Council of State in Lisbon, Portugal. The speech is scheduled for around 14:00 GMT. The risk for the euro is to the downside as Draghi might take the opportunity to put pressure on the common currency.

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