Market Absorbed Brexit Shock But Don’t Get Fooled By The Upward Correction

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Dear Traders,

Markets stabilized for a second consecutive trading day with the euro rising above 1.11 and the pound touching a high at 1.3534 after the 1.3280-level has proved to be a short-term support. Market participants have got over the Brexit shock from last Friday since a worst-case scenario for the EU and a contagion effect seem relatively unlikely. The focus is therefore gradually shifting back to monetary policy. Economists predict that the Bank of England will cut interest rates before the end of the year, while they see only little chances of a rate increase by the Federal Reserve this year. This fact could limit dollar gains in the short-term, whereas the pound sterling remains under pressure. The price direction will mainly hinge on risk appetite for each currency, although any new hawkish hints from Fed policymakers would provide a boost to the U.S. dollar.

Bank of England Governor Carney is scheduled to speak at 15:00 UTC today and any dovish comments could drive the pound lower. The U.K. GDP is due for release at 8:30 UTC but given the recent uncertainty this report is not expected to have a significant impact on the pound.

GBP/USD

We see the pound formatting a short-term upward channel after its sharp selloff. Once it breaks below that channel, falling back below 1.3370, we expect a higher likelihood of renewed downswings towards 1.3290, 1.3220 and 1.31.

However, above 1.3480 the pound could head towards the upper bound of the trend channel, which is currently around the 1.36-level.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot30.6.16

 

The euro tested the 1.1130-resistance level, from where it first reversed. As stated in previous analysis we only expect further upward momentum after a significant break above 1.1135/40. However, if the euro breaks below 1.1080, we may see a decline towards 1.1035, 1.0990 and 1.0890.

From the Eurozone we have the German Unemployment report due for release at 7:55 UTC, followed by Eurozone Consumer Prices due at 9:00 UTC. If these reports are in line with expectations the impact on the euro will be limited.

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U.S. Dollar Slightly Strengthened After Turkey Airport Attacks

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Dear Traders,

After Tuesday’s recovery the euro and British pound dropped back to their lower levels where the rallies had started out yesterday. The rapid decline is due to an airport terror attack in Istanbul late Tuesday. Three suicide bombers killed at least 36 people at the entrance to the main international airport in Istanbul. Investigations indicated the Islamic State (IS) was behind the terror attack. The attack came at a time when Turkey is struggling with the biggest slump in tourism as a result of the ongoing terrorist threat in the country.

Overall, there is a considerable degree of uncertainty in the market which negatively influences investments as well as the economic environment. European leaders pressed the U.K. to lay out a Brexit plan as quick as possible in order to avoid further uncertainty. However, it may take some time as the U.K. will only start the EU withdrawal process once a new government has been installed. This could happen as early as September.

From a technical perspective not much has changed. The euro traded consolidated between 1.11 and 1.1035. While we are still looking for breakouts either above 1.1135 or below 1.10 the trading range has narrowed which is why traders should keep an eye on prices above 1.1085 for bullish and, vice versa, for prices below 1.1035 for bearish engagements.

The cable peaked at 1.3419 before trending lower again. Our focus shifts to a renewed break below 1.3270 before anticipating lower targets at 1.3220 and 1.3150. On the topside, the 1.3370-level is seen as a current resistance.

Apart from the EU-U.K. summit, German Consumer Prices scheduled for release at 12:00 UTC and the U.S. PCE index due at 12:30 UTC could have a minor impact on the currencies.

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Pound Takes Breather While The Euro Stabilizes Around 1.1050

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Dear Traders,

While the British pound extended its record selloff in the aftermath of last week’s vote, the euro traded sideways Monday, straining the nerves of breakout-traders as price movements were limited to either side. The euro gained some ground above the 1.0970-level, but this does not necessarily mean that bearish momentum has already been exhausted. If the euro breaks again below 1.10 we see chances of a renewed downslide towards 1.0950 and 1.09. On the other hand, if the euro climbs above 1.1085 a next crucial resistance level is seen at 1.1133. The euro would need to break that level significantly in order to invigorate fresh bullish momentum.

Chart_EUR_USD_4 Hours_snapshot28.6.16

The pound sterling tagged a fresh low at 1.3120 from where it started a relief rally. The focus will now shift to the 1.3475-resistance and in case sterling is able to take this hurdle, we could see a rally towards 1.37 and 1.3780. However, if GBP remains below 1.3360 we favor a bearish stance with a next lower target at 1.3050.

From the U.S. we have revisions to first-quarter GDP scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC followed by Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC. Theses reports may have an impact on the greenback but for the time being, economic reports are likely to be of secondary importance as compared with talks about the guidance on how the U.K. will be extricated from the EU bloc. Prime Minister David Cameron will meet EU leaders for dinner today.

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Brexit! Will The Euro Crash?

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Dear Traders,

What can we say about the market today? Awesome, sad, impressive or the reaction was foreseeable? One thing is certain, however: Traders were able to get a substantial slice of the pie. From our point of view, the nighttime trading went very well. We achieved a reasonable profit with each of our entries in both currency pairs and we are therefore more than satisfied with our performance. Incidentally, our biggest single gain last night was a 420-pip profit, which was recorded by our short-entry in the GBP/USD.

The pound sterling crashed as the U.K. voted to quit the European Union. The first reaction has led to a massive sell-off in the pound. The euro moved in tandem with pound while the euro’s trading range was confined to 500 pips (5 percent), whereas the pound’s range extended to 1700! pips (17 percent). The pound’s downward move is the biggest drop of all time as Britain’s future is highly uncertain after the vote to exit the EU. The next steps are unclear, EU leaders and finance ministers could confer as soon as this weekend. The future path of the EU and U.K. is clearly subject to downside risk, this is the only (sad) certainty at the moment.

EUR/USD downside risks: If the euro breaks below 1.0890, a next support could be around 1.0820. Below 1.0780 the euro could tumble towards 1.0710 and 1.0560.

The storm in the Forex market is not yet over and traders should be cautious. If you already gained a good weekly profit then stop trading for this week. If you don’t mind getting your fingers burnt, then go ahead.

We say goodbye to this fateful week and wish you a wonderful weekend.

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Brexit Or Bremain? A Fateful Day

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Dear Traders,

This is a crucial day for the U.K. with Britain’s vote on membership of the European Union. The island nation will determine its future with or without the EU and the market is eagerly awaiting the decision. The voting booths are set to open at 7 a.m. London time, while first projections are likely to be announced during the evening hours.

The final outcome is anything but certain. Recent polls showed the ‘Remain’ camp being in the lead with 48 percent ‘Remain’ and 42 percent ‘Leave’.  The pound strengthened beyond 1.48 based on the assumption of a victory for the “Remain” campaign. But beware: Sterling is moving in tandem with bookmakers’ odds, while the chances of ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ are equal. The sentiment can therefore change very quickly at any time.

“Bremain” scenario: Traders should bear in mind that, even in the case of a pro-EU victory, unlimited upside swings won’t be a foregone conclusion. In other words, gains in the British pound could be limited as the focus will shift to the U.K. economy and the prospects of interest hikes in the aftermath of the vote. Since the Federal Reserve will be the first central bank to raise interest rates, the attention will switch to the U.S. dollar and the prospects of further Fed tightening. This fact may discourage investors to buy the pound unlimitedly.

“Brexit” scenario: In the event of an exit from the European Union, the pound will be vulnerable to huge losses as the consequences are incalculable. The market is currently pricing out a Brexit scenario which is why the market’s reaction on unexpected surprises could be excessive.

GBP/USD

Looking on the big picture, we see chances of an imminent trend reversal. Once the pound is able to climb above 1.4850, it could head for the next major resistance zone which we expect to be at 1.52-1.5350. Above 1.55 it could be tempting to anticipate a test of 1.60 but this would be the most optimistic forecast. However, in case of any negative headlines, the focus will be on the 1.40-support level. If sterling breaks below that level, it could easily fall towards 1.3840, 1.3550 or even lower.

Chart_GBP_USD_Weekly_snapshot23.6.16

EUR/USD

Upcoming breakout? The euro traded with a tailwind, heading for a renewed test of 1.1350. In the light of the highly anticipated result of the U.K. vote traders should prepare for volatile swings in this pair. Above 1.1365 we see a higher likelihood of further bullish momentum, driving the euro towards 1.14 and 1.1440. Above 1.1470 it may head for 1.1520 and 1.1615. Bear in mind, that like the British pound, upswings might be limited as the focus will shift back to Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations in the aftermath of the vote. Extended upswings might be subject to a possible short squeeze which could be short-lived.

Below 1.1280 next lower targets could be at 1.1220 and 1.1160. Below 1.1150 the euro could drop towards 1.10 and even as low as 1.0830.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot23.6.16

It all depends on the results of the Bexit vote and we prepare for large movements to either side. We recommend traders to trade cautiously during the day as wild swings may wipe out open trades, making trading highly risky.

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Brexit oder EU-Verbleib? Ein Schicksalstag für das Vereinigte Königreich

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Liebe Trader,

dies ist ein entscheidender Tag für das Vereinigte Königreich, denn der Inselstaat entscheidet heute über seine Mitgliedschaft in der Europäischen Union und somit über die Zukunft mit oder ohne die EU. Der Markt erwartet mit Spannung die Entscheidung. Die Wahllokale eröffnen heute um 7:00 Uhr Ortszeit, wobei die ersten Hochrechnungen wohl erst in den Abendstunden bekannt gegeben werden.

Das finale Ergebnis ist indes alles andere als sicher. Die letzten Umfragen zeigten das ‚Verbleib‘ Lager in Führung mit 48 Prozent für die EU-Befürworter im Gegensatz zu 42 Prozent für die EU-Gegner. Das Pfund erweiterte seine Gewinne jenseits der 1.48-Marke aufgrund der Annahme die Verbleib Kampagne könnte letztendlich siegen. Jedoch ist Vorsicht geboten: Sterling bewegt sich synchron mit den Quoten der Buchmacher, während die Gewinnchancen für beide Seiten weiterhin gleich sind. Das Sentiment kann sich somit zu jeder Zeit sehr schnell verändern.

„Bremain“ Szenario (EU Verbleib): Trader sollten hierbei berücksichtigen, dass, selbst im Falle eines Sieges der EU Befürworter, unbegrenzte Aufwärtsbewegungen keine ausgemachte Sache sind. Mit anderen Worten, könnten Gewinne im Britischen Pfund und Euro begrenzt bleiben, da der Fokus sich sofort nach der Wahl wieder der U.K. Wirtschaft und den Aussichten auf weitere Zinserhöhungen seitens der Federal Reserve richten wird. Da die Fed die erste Zentralbank sein wird, welche die Zinsen weiter anhebt, wird die Aufmerksamkeit dann wieder dem U.S. Dollar gewidmet. Diese Tatsache könnte Investoren davon abhalten massenhaft Käufe im Pfund und Euro zu tätigen.

„Brexit“ Szenario (EU Austritt): Im Falle eines Austritts aus der EU könnten die Währungen für massive Verluste anfällig sein, denn die Konsequenzen sind unkalkulierbar. Der Markt preist momentan einen möglichen Brexit aus, ein Grund dafür warum die Reaktion, im Falle von unerwarteten Überraschungen, überschießend sein könnte.

GBP/USD

Werfen wir einen Blick auf das Gesamtbild, so besteht die Möglichkeit einer bevorstehenden Trendumkehr. Kann das Pfund die 1.4850-Marke überwinden, so könnte es danach weiter bergauf gehen in Richtung der nächsten wichtigen Widerstandszone bei 1.52-1.5350. Oberhalb von 1.55 könnte es verlockend sein, einen Test von 1.60 zu antizipieren, jedoch wäre dies die optimistischste Vorhersage. Im umgekehrten Fall von negativen Schlagzeilen, richtet sich der Fokus wieder auf die 1.40-Unterstützung. Falls Sterling unterhalb jenes Levels ausbricht, so könnte es danach zügig bergab gehen gen 1.3840, 1.3550 oder sogar tiefer.

Chart_GBP_USD_Weekly_snapshot23.6.16

EUR/USD

Bevorstehender Ausbruch? Der Euro handelte mit Rückenwind in Richtung eines erneuten Tests von 1.1350. Aufgrund der hohen Erwartungen im Vorfeld des Ergebnisses der U.K. Wahl sollten sich Trader auf volatile Schwingungen in diesem Paar einstellen. Oberhalb von 1.1365 sehen wir Chancen auf weitere bullische Dynamik, welche den Euro bis 1.14 und 1.1440 steigen lassen könnte. Oberhalb von 1.1470 könnte es sogar bis 1.1520 und 1.1615 gehen. Berücksichtigt werden sollte, dass genauso wie im Britischen Pfund, Aufwärtsbewegungen womöglich begrenzt sein könnten. Der Fokus wird sich im Nachhinein wieder den Zinserwartungen widmen. Ausgiebige Aufwärtsbewegungen könnten eher eine Folge von einem kurzfristigen sogenannten „Short-Squeeze“ sein, welcher von kurzer Dauer sein könnte.

Unterhalb von 1.1280 wären tiefere Ziele bei 1.1220 und 1.1160 möglich. Unterhalb von 1.1150 könnte der Euro bis 1.10 und sogar bis zu einem Tief von 1.0830 absacken.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot23.6.16

Es hängt alles von dem Ergebnis des Referendums ab und wir werden uns auf große Bewegungen zu jeglicher Seite einstellen. Wir raten Tradern zur Vorsicht im Vorfeld der Hochrechnungen, denn wilde Schwingungen können offene Trades leicht ausradieren, was das Trading heute hoch-riskant macht.

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(wann wird ein Trade nachgezogen, wann wird nicht mehr eingestiegen, wann wird über Nacht laufen gelassen, wann wird Risiko raus genommen, wann wird mehr riskiert usw.) So müssen Sie nicht die ganze Zeit den Chart beobachten.

  • Profitieren Sie durch unsere Erfahrung, wir geben all unser Wissen an Kunden weiter um das bestmögliche Ergebnis zu erzielen.
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Brexit Debate Enters Hot Phase

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Dear Traders,

The British pound extended its gains towards 1.48 while the euro went into a tailspin Tuesday. Sterling benefited from reduced chances of a so-called Brexit, even if Thursday’s U.K. referendum is not a foregone conclusion. We expect the pound to be highly volatile on the last day before the vote and we will not elaborate on the technical picture today as anything is possible.

The euro dropped towards 1.1235 after it rejected the 1.1350 level. In short-term timeframes we expect the 1.1310-level to act as a resistance for the euro, whereas a lower bound could be currently found at 1.1222/1.12. Above 1.1360 the euro could climb towards 1.1395 and 1.1435. Below 1.1220 we will favor a bearish stance, targeting lower levels at 1.1185 and 1.1135.

Fed chair Yellen adopted a cautious approach to the outlook and the appropriate pace of interest rate hikes in yesterday’s testimony before lawmakers in Washington. She highlighted concerns about longer-term problems in the U.S. economy, adding to signs that the Fed may go for only one hike this year. Yellen is due to address lawmakers for a second day today at 14:00 UTC, while at the same time U.S. Existing Home Sales are scheduled for release.

The Brexit debate is entering the hot phase and traders should prepare for higher volatility ahead of tomorrow’s vote. Whatever the outcome may be, we wait to be surprised and try to get the best out of the market’s movements.

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Brexit Polls Show Neck-And-Neck Race, Will GBP Maintain Its High Price Level?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The British pound is exposed to extremely volatile trading conditions in the run-up to the U.K. referendum. Separate polls are showing leads for both sides, creating uncertainty among speculators. The most recent survey showed ‘Leave’ at 44 percent and 42 percent for ‘Remain’, while a different poll saw ‘Remain’ at 53 percent and ‘Leave’ at 46 percent. The British pound rose to a high of 1.4721 on increased risk appetite but, as noted in yesterday’s analysis, it still fluctuates within its range with the annual high at 1.4816. An upside break above 1.4730 may drive the pound towards its May high at 1.4770, while a downside break below 1.4580 could lead to a downswing towards 1.4520 and 1.4470.

U.K. Public Finances are due for release at 8:30 UTC, but Brexit headlines will continue to dominate the price action in the pound.

The euro was slightly tilted to the downside but for the time being, the 1.13-support proved to be intact. Hence, short traders’ efforts didn’t pay off as the downswing was limited. On the upper side, we will now focus on a renewed break above 1.1360 in order to buy euros towards 1.14 and 1.1440. Below 1.1280, we expect bearish momentum to increase, driving the euro towards 1.1230 and 1.12 in a next step.

Fed Chair Yellen is scheduled to testify before lawmakers in a semiannual report today at 14:00 UTC. Yellen is unlikely to provide new insights into the timing of future interest rates but she may stress the risks of a potential Brexit which would harm the U.S. economy. The U.S. dollar might be vulnerable to some losses if she sounds less hawkish.

From the Eurozone, we have the German ZEW Survey scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC, a report that could have a short-term impact on the euro. However, price fluctuation in the EUR/USD will be dominated by the level of risk-appetite for euros and dollars, while economic data will take a backseat with only two days before the Brexit vote.

Before Yellen’s testimony, ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Brussels at 13:00 UTC.

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Fasten Your Seatbelt For The Most Important (Volatile) Week Of The Year

/in /by

Dear Traders,

This week is the most important week of the year with Thursday’s U.K. referendum paving the way for new trends in the market. The British pound jumped to a high of 1.4624 on eased concerns about the Brexit vote. The euro benefited from that optimistic tone and rose towards 1.14 on increased risk appetite.

The first poll taken after the murder of UK lawmaker Jo Cox showed the ‘Remain’ camp is gaining ground. The tragic death of pro-EU supporter Cox shifted some support back to ‘Remain’ and helped the pound and euro to recover from their lows. However, traders should be careful ahead of Thursday’s vote as volatility is likely to remain extremely high and large fluctuations in both directions are possible.

Ahead of the U.K. vote, Fed chair Janet Yellen testifies before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday but no one expects her to reveal anything new about the guidance of future rate hikes. Policymakers are likely to wait for the outcome of the U.K. vote before setting the right course.

Traders should prepare for a volatile week in the Forex market and should bear in mind that anything can happen. We are curious to see how the market reacts and wish all traders many profitable trades.

EUR/USD

The euro rallied towards the upper bound of its recent downtrend channel. Once this barrier is significantly breached to the upside, the next important price level will be the crucial resistance zone at 1.14-1.1450. In search of attractive buying opportunities, the 1.1465- level may serve as a profitable long-entry. Above that level, the euro may head for a test of 1.15. Above 1.1530 it could even rally towards 1.1750. For the time being, we see a current support around the 1.13-level. Below 1.1230 the euro could drop back to 1.1130.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot20.6.16

GBP/USD

Looking at larger time frames, the pound sterling is still trading within its range between 1.4750 and 1.40. We expect high-volatile swings ahead of Thursday’s referendum but as long as the currency pair remains confined to that range, there is no new trend. Let’s wait and see.

Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot20.6.16

 

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Suspension Of Brexit Campaigns Lift Both British Pound And Euro

/in /by

Dear Traders,

While both of our major currency pairs were yesterday still on a downswing the decline came to an abrupt end after the terrible attack on U.K. lawmaker Jo Cox has led to a suspension of all Brexit campaigns. U.K. Labour Party lawmaker Jo Cox was shot dead on Thursday, silencing the Brexit debate. Her death came as a shock to the world as she was a passionate supporter of the EU membership. As a result, both sides suspended their campaigns and put their activities on hold. The suspension of campaigning has therefore lifted the pound and in a countermove, the euro. Nonetheless, the risks continue to exist.

What should traders expect now? 

As the upswing was only triggered due to suspension of campaigns and eased Brexit concerns, it might be short-lived. Consequently, we do not expect the upward move to be sustained amidst all uncertainties surrounding the June 23 referendum. The bias therefore remains bearish as a potential Bexit is not off the table while the reduced bets on U.K. leaving EU are just a snapshot.

What targets to look at?

EUR/USD: The euro rallied towards 1.13 but traders should not get fooled by the latest upswing. As long as the euro remains below 1.1305 there is no reason to believe that the market sentiment has changed. If the euro breaks above 1.1305 we see a next target at 1.1365 but we expect gains to be limited until that level. However, if the euro falls back below 1.1220 the focus shifts to the 1.1185-level. Below that level we expect the euro to drop towards 1.1130 and 1.11.

GBP/USD: The cable reversed from a high at 1.4295 and is pointing downwards. The focus will be on the 1.42-level and on a renewed downside break of that support level. Once it has been significantly breached to the downside, we expect sterling to decline towards 1.4125/05. Below 1.4090 we see chances of an extended downward move until 1.3990. On the other hand, however, in case of an upside break above 1.4315, the pound could rally towards 1.44 and 1.4440 on increased volatility.

U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits are scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC but the price action will be determined by the Brexit debate. Furthermore, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 15:00 UTC.

Have a wonderful weekend and enjoy life.

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