Trump’s Promises Are Not Enough To Lift The USD

Dear Traders,

There is still nothing new to report at this time. No trend, no breakout and consequently no sustained profit. It is thus difficult for day traders to benefit from directionless market swings.

When will a breakout finally come? This is the key question amongst traders and the answer could lie in President Trump’s speech to the joint-session of Congress today. His speech could be a catalyst as long as he provides enough details about his purported stimulus plan. During a speech on Monday, Trump promised that “we’re going to start spending on infrastructure, big”, without giving any details but promises alone are not enough to put an end to the dollar’s lethargy. With no reassuring details the greenback could suffer further pullbacks. Either way, we will prepare for higher volatility during his speech and hope for some larger market moves.

Trump’s speech is set for today at 21:00 ET (Wednesday morning 2:00 a.m. UTC).

The euro rose against the greenback but gains were limited to a high of 1.0630. EUR/USD bulls shall now wait for a break above 1.0620 and 1.0660 whereas bears may profit from a downside break of 1.0520. If Trump delivers details on his spending plans, we could see the euro free-falling against the dollar.

The British pound initially dropped against the dollar on reports that PM Theresa May’s team is preparing for Scotland to potentially call for an independence referendum. However, the impact was short-lived and the pound ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the dollar. We still wait for a break below the important support at 1.2380 in order to sell sterling towards 1.2250. On the upside, the 1.2550/70 level remains a crucial resistance for sterling bulls.

Before Trump’s address to Congress, we will watch important economic data such as the U.S. GDP figures, due at 13:30 UTC, followed by Consumer Confidence at 15:00 UTC.

We wish you good trades!

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USD Continues Weakness, Next Price Levels To Watch Out For

Dear Traders,

Thursday’s best performer was the British pound which broke upward through the 1.25-resistance. The next barrier will now be at 1.2582 and the pound must overcome this hurdle in order to boost bullish momentum towards 1.2680 and 1.2770. The recent rise can be attributed to the declining demand for U.S. dollars rather than sterling strength. For dollar bulls to regain attention, the pound will need to fall back below 1.2415. As long as the GBP/USD remains trading above that level, we shift our focus to a break of 1.2582/1.26.

The EUR/USD trended upwards but the upward movement was limited to a daily high of 1.0595. With no major market movers scheduled for release today, the euro might extend its gains towards 1.0620 on a weakening dollar. Euro bears shall however focus on a renewed break below 1.0540.

U.S. New Home Sales due at 15:00 UTC will be of secondary importance.

We wish you good trades and a wonderful weekend!

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Market Ignored FOMC Minutes, U.S. Dollar Strength Is Still Awaited

Dear Traders,

Following the FOMC minutes, nothing has actually happened in the market and it appears that market participants have completely ignored the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the upcoming meeting. The minutes showed that Fed officials see a hike ‘fairly soon’, confirming the hawkish bias while nothing in that report directly suggested that a March hike is off the table. The market however, has interpreted the minutes to be less hawkish as Fed policy makers expressed confidence they can take their time raising interest rates as there is little risk of an overshooting of inflation.

In summary, yesterday was none of our favorite trading days as we have hoped for larger market movements and more profitable swings.

The euro bounced off the 1.0490-support and recovered some losses after the U.S. dollar failed to gain strength from the minutes. We now expect the EUR/USD to trade within a range of 1.0615 and 1.0450.

The technical picture in the GBP/USD remained virtually unchanged with the pound continuing to trade sideways. The risk is however tilted to the downside and if the pound drops back below 1.2425 we see a higher possibility of upcoming bearish momentum towards 1.2385 and 1.2350. On the upside, we will wait for a significant break above 1.25 in order to shift the focus towards higher price levels.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today and thus the price action could hinge on the appetite for USD. Given the fact that the Fed is currently the only central bank that is on track to raise rates, we generally expect further strength in greenback.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Euro And Cable: Sideways Trend As Major Market Movers Lack

Dear Traders,

With U.S. markets shut on Monday, we had a pretty quiet market and low market volatility. Thus, any larger market movements were lacking and both of our major currency pairs fluctuated in narrow sideways trading ranges.

During Asia-Pacific trading hours the euro finally dropped below 1.06 and is now within its support area between 1.0580 and 1.0560. Given the recent bearish momentum the euro may extend its losses towards 1.0550 but in short-term time frames the single currency is in an oversold territory which is why we could see some pullbacks today. Current resistances are seen at 1.06 and 1.0635 from where sellers may jump back in.

German and Eurozone PMI reports are scheduled for release at 8:30 and 9:00 UTC but these reports are not expected to have a significant impact on the euro.

The British pound was unable to break through the 1.2480-barrier and finally gave up its modest gain, sliding back towards 1.2430. If the pound falls below 1.2425, we may see further losses towards 1.24 and possibly even 1.2350. Sterling bulls should however wait for prices above 1.2480 in order to buy sterling towards 1.2550.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the U.K. Parliament at 10:00 UTC and his comments could have an impact on the pound’s price action.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Dollar Weakness Continues

Dear Traders,

The greenback continued to weaken against the euro and British pound. While the euro was Thursday’s best performer, rising towards 1.0680 and providing euro bulls a good profit, there was less consistency in the performance of the pound sterling. The pound traded sideways after peaking at 1.2524 and buyers had to be content with a modest profit. U.K. Retail Sales are due for release at 9:30 UTC but this report is not expected to have a significant impact on the pound.

Apart from the second-tier U.K. Retail Sales report, there are no major economic reports scheduled for release today and thus, the price action might be oriented towards resistance- and support levels. Let’s have a look at the current important price levels:

  Resistances Supports
EUR/USD 1.0705

1.0750

1.0775

1.0630

1.06

1.0550

 

  Resistances Supports
GBP/USD 1.2550

1.26

1.2675

1.2440

1.2410

1.2330

We wish you a relaxing weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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There Is No Reasonable Explanation For The Dollar’s reversal

Dear Traders,

It seemed as if dollar bulls just sought an excuse for taking profits on dollar positions after the U.S. dollar rose to new highs on evidence of firming inflation. Whereas for the U.S. all signs are pointing to higher inflation and thus, higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, there was no reasonable explanation for the sharp reversal of the USD towards the end of the trading day. During the House Financial Services Committee hearing, conservatives Republicans pressed Fed Chair Janet Yellen to concede that economic growth is still disappointing and that the Fed has failed to fix underlying problems. For the most part, Yellen’s tone was positive, defending the Fed’s efforts that had contributed to strong job growth. The only negative point during the hearing was that Yellen acknowledged that economic growth has been “quite disappointing”. This seemed to be the reason for the weakening dollar in short-term time frames.

The EUR/USD traded higher, heading towards 1.0630 and it will now be interesting whether the 1.0660-resistance is going to hold. If the euro breaks through 1.0665/70 we expect accelerated bullish momentum towards 1.0710 and possibly even 1.0750. A current support area is however seen at 1.0580-60. If the euro falls back below 1.0560 it could extend its losses towards 1.0510.

The pound sterling ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the greenback. A break above 1.2520 could boost bullish momentum but we bear in mind that the barrier at 1.2550 is still unbroken. Crucial support levels are seen at 1.2350 and 1.2310 and as long as the pound remains firmly above these zones we will rather focus on higher price levels.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today and those of you who have already made a good profit this week, shall better not reinvest their profits.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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USD Receives Boost On Hawkish Yellen Comments

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar was bolstered by hawkish comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on the first day of her testimony. While Yellen did not reveal much new information, she was surprisingly hawkish, saying that “waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise, potentially requiring the FOMC to eventually raise rates rapidly, which could risk disrupting financial markets”. In other words, the pace of interest rate hikes could accelerate, still leaving the door open for a hike in March. Market participants will now shift their focus to the U.S. Consumer Price data with the intention to evaluate the need for faster rate normalization.

The greenback traded higher against the euro and British pound and while we generally expect further gains in the dollar, traders should also prepare for some pullbacks in short-term time frames.

The euro found some halt at 1.0560 and it may now tend to correct recent losses towards 1.0615 and possibly even 1.0630. Today’s price action will, however, again hinge on the demand for dollars. In case of better-than-expected CPI data the euro could extend its losses towards 1.0540 and 1.05.

The British pound dropped towards 1.2440 after the U.K. Consumer Price Index failed to meet market expectations. Signs of weaker price growth may encourage the Bank of England to maintain a neutral monetary policy. From a technical perspective, the cable is still confined within a sideways trading range between 1.2550/85 and 1.2440. A break below 1.2440 may prompt sterling bears to sell sterling towards 1.2350 and further 1.2270. On the topside, the pound will need to break through 1.2530 and 1.2560 in order to invigorate fresh bullish momentum.

We will keep an eye on the U.K. Labor Market report, due for release at 9:30 UTC, which could affect the price action in the GBP/USD, provided that there is any surprise.

Higher volatility is expected during the U.S. session with Consumer Prices and Advance Retail Sales scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC.

Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the House Financial Services Committee at 15:00 UTC.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Yellen Testimony Takes Center Stage

Dear Traders,

The currency market got off to a cautious start before the testimony from Federal Reserve’s Janet Yellen. The U.S. dollar was little changed against the euro and British pound Monday and while the euro took a dip below the 1.06-level, we still cannot speak of a significant downside breakout. The pound sterling ended the trading day in positive territory and it currently appears poised to break through the 1.2550-barrier. For sterling traders, it will be an interesting trading day with U.K. Consumer Prices being due for release at 9:30 UTC. Traders should prepare for volatile swings even ahead of the upcoming inflation figures. Above 1.2560 the pound may head for a test of 1.2575/95. While the risk for inflation is clearly on the upside there is also potential for disappointment last month.

The euro is hovering around the 1.06-mark and we still wait for a sustained break below the 1.0580-support. Once that level is breached we expect further losses towards 1.0550 and 1.0520. On the upside, the 1.0650-level may limit potential gains but today’s price action will hinge on Yellen’s testimony. Euro traders will also pay attention to the German ZEW Survey and Eurozone GDP figures, both reports scheduled for release at 10:00 UTC.

The Fed chair will start testimony in Congress in Washington at 15:00 UTC. While Yellen is not expected to give any clear hints as to the timing of the next rate hike, her comments on monetary policy could trigger larger market moves.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Euro And Pound Remain In Narrow Trading Ranges

Dear Traders,

Both euro and British pound ended the trading day slightly lower against the greenback but there is still no trace of any breakouts of the narrow trading ranges. The U.S. dollar received a boost from U.S. President Donald Trump’s pledge to announce a “phenomenal” plan on taxes within the next “two or three weeks”, but these comments were not enough to trigger a lasting bearish trend, at least not in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Rather, the price action in both currency pairs remained restricted to current support and resistance zones.

Amidst a thin-liquidity environment, the euro is still caught between 1.0715 and 1.0640 so there is nothing new to report.

The cable refrained from a direct test of 1.26 and reversed shy of 1.2585. With the 1.2475-support zone still being intact we focus now on a potential head-shoulders formation in short-term time frames. The pound may head for another test of 1.2550 before it is poised for a significant break below 1.2475/70. Let us be surprised.

And once again there are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. The only interesting reports, which may have a minor impact on the currencies, will be U.K.’s Industrial and Manufacturing Production at 9:30 UTC and University of Michigan Consumer Confidence at 15:00 UTC.

This week was characterized by low volatility and thus little chances for profitable moves. We hope for better trading opportunities and more profitable movements next week. Have a nice weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Quiet Trading Environment

Dear Traders,

Not much has happened in the market on Wednesday and trading can be described as very quiet. Market-moving economic data was still lacking and thus the price action in both major currency pairs was constricted to tight trading ranges. The technical picture has therefore not changed.

While none of our daily entries was triggered in the EUR/USD, the cable showed a slight upward trend towards 1.2550. The 1.2550-barrier is considered an important resistance and if the pound rises above that level we may see a continuation of the recent upward trend, driving sterling towards 1.26 and possibly even 1.2660. On the bottom side we will pay attention to a potential break of 1.2440. Lower targets could be at 1.2420 and 1.2320.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak in London today at 18:30 UTC. This speech might be worth watching given accelerating inflation and recent hawkish comments. If Carney highlights a hawkish outlook despite the risks surrounding the U.K.’s exit from the EU, the pound could extend its gains. If he however, takes a neutral stance on monetary policy, sterling could fall back towards 1.24.

The euro traded between 1.0715 and 1.0640. As long as there is no fresh price breakout above or below this range, there is nothing new to report.

From the U.S. we have Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC but these reports are of secondary importance to the greenback.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co