ECB Decision: Stimulus Change Would Be Premature

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Dear Traders,

It’s ECB decision day and the euro trends slightly lower against the U.S. dollar ahead of the event risk. Meanwhile, the dollar received some support by an unexpectedly robust ADP employment report which nearly doubled the 185K forecast, lifting estimates for tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. A Fed rate increase is therefore priced in as a near-certainty. However as certain as next week’s FOMC rate decision seems, the tightening cycle in subsequent meetings has not accelerated. Hence, the greenback seems to be unimpressed by the hawkish outlook.

Euro traders will pay close attention to comments from European Central Bank president Mario Draghi. The bar is high and investors are looking for clues as to whether the conditions are right for a stimulus change. However the central bank is not expected to signal any change in policy today as policy makers will keep QE probably going until the end of the year. Even with euro-zone inflation at 2 percent for the first time in four years, Draghi is expected to maintain a dovish bias for the time being. The ECB must very cautiously reduce the level of current stimulus and it will therefore seek to avoid unnecessary turmoil. Nevertheless, inflation forecasts are expected to be revised higher for 2017 and 2018, which is why some market indicators point to the possibility of a rate hike in 2018.

The ECB’s decision will be announced at 12:45 UTC, followed by the ECB press conference 45 minutes later.

As usual, traders should prepare for volatile swings around the time of the press conference. Technically, the euro’s downtrend remains intact with the focus being on a next lower target at 1.0515/10. The 1.05-support level could lend a strong support to the euro which is why traders should also consider possible pullbacks in short-term time frames. A current resistance is seen at 1.0550, a level where sellers might jump back in. If the euro breaks however above 1.0575 we may see further gains towards 1.0640 and possibly even 1.0670. A break below 1.0490 could increase bearish momentum towards 1.0390.

The pound sterling extended its losses against the greenback and dropped to a low of 1.2139. We still anticipate some corrections in short-term time frames, sending the pound higher towards 1.23 and possibly even 1.24. On the bottom side there is a crucial support area ranging from 1.21 to 1.20. The pound may have difficulty to break that support zone ahead of the trigger of Article 50. No date has yet been fixed for the potential Brexit trigger, which is supposed to take place before the end of March.

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Euro Trends Sideways While Cable Extends Losses

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Dear Traders,

While the euro showed only little movement on Tuesday, short traders that sold the British pound have benefited from the downswing until a low of 1.2169. Volatility in the EUR/USD is still low with the currency pair remaining range bound. Euro traders await tomorrow’s ECB meeting for further direction. Until then, we may have to watch the euro trading between 1.0640 and 1.0490.  In the hourly chart we currently see a higher likelihood of upcoming bearish momentum, provided that the euro drops significantly below 1.0560. This assumption is based on a descending triangle in the hourly chart. If the euro breaks however above 1.0575, that chart pattern becomes void.

Unlike the euro, the GBP/USD could be vulnerable to pullbacks after having dropped as low as 1.2169. If the pound breaks above 1.2215 we may see a correction towards 1.2250 and 1.2280.However, if sterling falls back below 1.2190 it could extend its losses towards 1.2140/30.

In short-term time frames we see an ascending triangle which could predict upcoming bullish momentum.

 

From a fundamental perspective, the only interesting piece of economic data will be the ADP Employment report scheduled for release at 13:15 UTC which could have an impact on the greenback.

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Quiet Trading

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Dear Traders,

The euro’s short-lived break above 1.0630 proved unsuccessful after euro bulls got fooled by the false breakout. It may require another test of that resistance level to finally invigorate further bullish momentum but the price action will also hinge on the appetite for U.S. dollars ahead of Friday’s payrolls report. However, from a technical perspective, nothing has changed and we still wait for prices either above 1.0630/40 or, on the other side, below 1.0490.

The pound sterling depreciated against the U.S. dollar but held steady above its 1.22-support. In short-term time frames, we now wait for a renewed break below 1.2230 in order to sell sterling towards 1.2190.  On the topside we anticipate the 1.2285-level to act as a current resistance. For the pound to rally, it would need to significantly break through the 1.23-level.

There are no major important economic reports scheduled for release today, so trading could be quiet again with market participants remaining risk-averse until the end of the week.

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U.S. Dollar Remains Bid, Fed Speak Reaffirms Rate Hike Expectations

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Dear Traders,

Apart from a loss-making cable, there was not much going on in the markets on Thursday. Dollar bulls remained active, sending the greenback higher against its major counter parts but trading the GBP/USD has proved unsuccessful. The pound sterling refrained from trading any lower than 1.2240 and tagged a fresh support at 1.2258. We will now wait for a sustained break below 1.2230, possibly pushing the pound for a test of 1.22. On the upside we expect a short-term resistance at 1.2330/50.  The U.K. Services PMI report is scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC, but this report is not expected to have a major impact on the pound.

The EUR/USD traded slightly lower, dipping below 1.05. For the euro to fall towards lower targets the pair will need to break below 1.0485. As long as the euro remains firmly above 1.05 we could see some pullback towards 1.0540/50.

Market participants will listen to Fed speak from Janet Yellen who is expected to reaffirm the case for tightening at the next FOMC meeting in two weeks. Yellen gives an address on the economic outlook in Chicago today at 18:00 UTC.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing index is scheduled for release at 15:00 UTC and could also have a minor impact on the greenback.

We generally expect further dollar strength in the coming days, even though we may see some corrective movements in both major currency pairs.

Have a good weekend.

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Trump Speech Leaves Investors Unimpressed

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Dear Traders,

Well, as a trader, we were expecting much more from Donald Trump’s address to Congress. The market reaction to Trump’s speech was muted as specific details on infrastructure have been elusive. Trump promised to spend as much as 1 trillion dollars on infrastructure but he did not specify the timing and what spending he is referring to. While there were no details, Trump’s speech was notably less confrontational than his inaugural address. The U.S. dollar slightly strengthened following the speech but large market movements are still yet to come.

The pound sterling dropped below 1.2380 and we now expect the GBP/USD to trend lower towards 1.2260/20. The pound will now need to break below 1.2340 but before we could see accelerating bearish momentum it may head back towards a test of the current resistance at around 1.2430.

The U.K. PMI Manufacturing is scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC and could have a minor impact on the pound.

The euro depreciated against the greenback after failing to break above 1.0630. We will now wait for a sustained break below 1.0520 before anticipating further losses. Below 1.0520 we could see the EUR/USD tumbling towards 1.0450. On the upside we expect the 1.0620-level to lend a current resistance to the currency pair.

From the Eurozone, we have the German Unemployment report scheduled for release today at 8:55 UTC followed by the German Consumer Price Index at 13:00 UTC.

The most interesting piece of U.S. economic data will be the ISM Manufacturing Index due at 15:00 UTC which could have a significant impact on the dollar, provided that there is a surprise.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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