Trading Break
Trading Break from April 28 until May 3:
During this period we will not provide daily analysis and signals.
Archive for month: April, 2017
All Eyes On Draghi: Will He Talk Down The Euro?
Dear Traders,
The British pound finally broke above 1.2865 this morning and a next hurdle could now be at 1.29. If the pound rises above 1.2910 we may see a run for 1.30. Let’s us wait and see.
The much anticipated U.S. tax plan disappointed investors as it left too many unanswered questions and did not reveal anything new. The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and pound as a result. The “phenomenal” tax plan came in as a one-page list of bullet points and was largely devoid of detail.
Euro traders will shift their focus to the European Central Bank meeting while no changes are expected from the central bank. ECB President Mario Draghi will most likely maintain a dovish monetary policy stance since a strong euro is the biggest problem for policy makers and makes it more difficult for the ECB to achieve its inflation target. In a nutshell, we doubt that Draghi is debating an exit from its extraordinary stimulus. With no fresh insights, the ECB meeting could thus be a non-event for traders but let us be surprised.
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We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.
Can The Euro Hold Onto Its High Price Level?
Dear Traders,
The euro broke above Monday’s spike high at 1.0923 but gains were capped at 1.0950, at least for the time being. The question now is whether there is still room for further gains. Looking at the 4-hour and daily chart we see that the EUR/USD is in overbought territory, a situation that increases the likelihood of upcoming corrections. We see a next hurdle at around 1.0970 followed by a stronger resistance at 1.10. As long as the euro remains firmly below 1.10 we prepare for corrective movements towards 1.09, 1.0840 and possibly even 1.0750.
The British pound rose towards the upper bound of its recent sideways trading range but still refrained from an upside break above 1.2850. As noted in previous analysis, sterling bulls better wait for a significant break above 1.2860 in order to buy pounds towards 1.30. A break below 1.2730 however, could send the pound tumbling towards 1.2650.
There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today, so the price action could hinge on U.S. President Trump’s tax-reform speech. Trump is expected to unveil a tax plan that includes a cut of the corporate rate to 15 percent from 35 percent. If he delivers we could see some renewed strength in the U.S. dollar.
Daily Forex signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
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We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.
Market Returned To Risk-Off Mode
Dear Traders,
Risk appetite among market participants has subsided following the risk-on rally in the wake of French elections. While we had hoped for some further momentum in the markets, traders were disappointed by the poor market situation and consequently none of our daily signal entries was triggered. We may see some increase in volatility as soon as tomorrow as investors are turning their attention to U.S. President Trump who will unveil his tax plan on Wednesday. According to a White House official, he will call for cutting taxes for individuals and lowering the corporate rate to 15 percent. Trump’s announcement could strengthen the U.S. dollar.
The euro traded sideways within a tight trading range between 1.0880 and 1.0835. We are now looking for small breakouts either above 1.0880 or below 1.0845. However, with market participants pulling back on EUR/USD positioning we have no other choice than waiting for the market sentiment to improve.
The British pound refrained from showing any larger price fluctuations and remained steady above 1.2770, at least for the time being. A current support level is seen at 1.2745 whereas a short-term resistance remains intact at 1.2830/40.
U.S. Consumer Confidence is scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC and is the only noteworthy report today.
Daily Forex signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
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We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.
Euro Steady Ahead Of French Elections – The Calm Before The Storm?
Dear Traders,
Both euro and British pound ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged against the U.S. dollar after the euro had risen to a high of 1.0777 whereas the cable had rejected the 1.2850-resistance. The limited upward movement was due to a slight increase in the dollar after U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin spread optimism that the Trump administration is close to bringing forward major tax reform. He said the White House will unveil a tax plan “very soon”.
Meanwhile, the euro held steady above 1.07 after a police officer was killed in Paris just days before France’s presidential election starts. The incident could have an impact on the outcome of the first round of the election on Sunday since the Islamic State is claiming responsibility for the attack.
Polling is suggesting it will be a close call between independent Emmanuel Macron and the National Front’s Marine Le Pen. The two leading candidates will run off in a winner-takes-all contest on May 7.
EUR/USD- The calm before the storm?
The euro performed quite resiliently ahead of the most tightly contested elections in France.
On a technical basis, we will focus on a current trading range between 1.0740 and 1.0680. A renewed break above 1.0740 may boost bullish momentum until a fresh high at 1.08. We would speak of a bullish breakout in case the euro climbs above 1.0820. A higher target could be at 1.0950. However, below 1.0680/70 we could see the euro tumbling towards 1.0640 and 1.06. A break below 1.0590 could reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum.
The British pound was unable to take the hurdle at 1.2850 and dropped back below 1.28. As long as the GBP/USD remains trading between 1.2860 and 1.2770 we do not pay much attention to the cable’s price action. A break below 1.2770 would shift the focus to lower targets near 1.27 and 1.26 whereas it would need a sustained break above 1.2860 to spark bullish momentum towards 1.2950.
The U.K. Retail Sales report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and will draw traders’ attention.
We wish you good trades and a nice weekend.
Daily Forex signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
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We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.
Euro And Cable Consolidate Following Strong Moves
Dear Traders,
The British pound gave up some of the gains it had made on Tuesday and fell back below 1.28. As long as the pound remains above the 1.26-mark, the recent drop could be considered a correction within the recent uptrend. We will now focus on a break above the short-term resistance at 1.2860. Once that level has been breached to the upside, sterling could make a run for 1.2950. A short-term support could however be at 1.2750 and 1.2720.
Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak at an event in Washington today at 17:30 UTC and his comments could have an impact on the pound, provided that he refers to the BoE’s monetary policy.
The euro held above the 1.07-level and market participants seem to be shying away from taking any positions in the EUR/USD ahead of France’s presidential election this weekend. From a technical perspective, we see a symmetrical triangle in the 4-hour chart which could predict small breakouts.
Above 1.0720 the euro could rise towards 1.0760, whereas a break below 1.07 may send the euro towards 1.0675. However, given the risk aversion in the market we do not expect larger fluctuations within the next 48 hours.
From the U.S., we have the Philadelphia Fed Index due for release at 12:30 UTC but we doubt that this report will have a major impact on the greenback.
Daily Forex signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.
GBP/USD: How High Can The Pound Go?
Dear Traders,
Markets have had a surprisingly volatile start after the Easter holidays as the shock news of a U.K. election has caused the British pound to skyrocket against the U.S. dollar. The euro traded in sympathy with the pound and was able to climb above the 1.07-barrier.
The biggest story on Tuesday was however sterling’s roller coaster ride amid U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May’s announcement in Downing Street. When May initially said she would make an announcement outside Downing Street, she offered no further explanation. Consequently, the pound dropped towards 1.2515 as a result of uncertainty. When it was clear that May announced an early election, the pound jumped to fresh highs, breaking through significant technical barriers. The announcement came as a surprise in the market and as a trader we know that surprise moves can be very profitable. And thus, every of our swing and daily signal trades have easily reached the final profit target.
The snap election that will be held on June 8 was called in order to increase May’s majority in the House of Commons before the difficult two-year negotiating period with the European Union.
GBP/USD
How high can sterling go? This is precisely the question that interest traders. In the near-term, we expect a continuation of the recent upward move, targeting at the next resistance zone around 1.29 – 1.2920. If sterling breaks through 1.2950 it may head for a test of 1.3050 – the upper resistance level. We expect a stronger resistance around 1.3050 and 1.31 that could limit further gains in the pound. On the downside, we see current support levels at 1.27 and 1.26, barriers at which bulls could take the opportunity to buy sterling at lower levels.
The euro broke through 1.07 and was able to hold above that important price level. We do not expect larger market moves ahead of the French elections as uncertainty prevails, but anything is possible. A next resistance is seen around 1.0750 and the single currency would need to break significantly above that level in order to extend potential gains towards 1.08. A crucial support-zone remains intact at around 1.0640/30.
Eurozone Consumer Prices are scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC but this report could be of minor importance.
Daily Forex signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.
Happy Easter!
Easter holiday break: We will not provide our signals and analysis on Good Friday (April 14th) and Easter Monday (April 17th). The signal service will be resumed on Tuesday.
Until then, we wish you a happy and relaxing Easter holiday!
Sluggish Market Conditions Persist Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Dear Traders,
Risk aversion and the liquidity drain ahead of the Easter holiday are hobbling the market. Tuesday’s best performer, however, was the British pound which soared to a high of 1.2494. The pound sterling benefited from a weakening U.S. dollar, which suffered some losses amid geopolitical tensions. The U.S.’s recent tougher stance created a new round of risk aversion in the market. However, the longer-term outlook for the dollar is still positive, including higher interest rates from the Fed while dollar bulls are likely to return to the market after the Easter break.
GBP/USD
The bullish movement has stalled near 1.25, a level that is considered a short-term resistance for the currency pair. The pound could possibly extend its gains to 1.2510/15 before we see a stronger correction. A break above 1.2525 however, could open the door for further bullish momentum, driving the cable towards the higher resistance zone around 1.2550/85. A current support is seen around 1.2430.
The U.K. Labor Market report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and could have an impact on the price action. At the same time, Bank of England Governor Carney will speak at an event in London.
EUR/USD
The euro rose to a weekly high of 1.0630 but the currency pair’s price action is still confined to a narrow trading range. For breakout traders there was nothing to gain amid this subdued price development. The situation could persist until the French presidential election on April 23 as investors remain cautious ahead of that trend-setting event. For the time being we expect the euro’s price development to be limited to a range of 1.0650 and 1.0575.
Daily Forex signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.
GBP/USD: U.K. Inflation Report To Dictate Price Action
Dear Traders,
While the U.S. dollar ended the day virtually unchanged against the euro, it traded slightly lower versus the British pound Monday. Meanwhile, there were no new insights from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. She reiterated several previously stated positions when speaking at the University of Michigan. Yellen said she expected the U.S. economy to continue to grow at a moderate pace and that gradual interest rate increases “can get us where we need to be”. Fed policy makers expect two additional rate hikes in 2017.
The British pound recovered some losses and rose towards 1.2430. However, as long as the pound remains below 1.2450/70, we favor a bearish stance. For sterling to rally it would possibly require a break above 1.2480 and further 1.2505. Today’s price action will hinge on the U.K. inflation report, scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC. If Consumer Price growth comes in with a downtick, sterling could fall towards 1.2340. Stronger inflation however, may encourage sterling bulls to push the currency beyond the 1.2470-level.
The euro trod water with the price reluctant to push above the 1.06-mark. Euro traders remain risk-averse ahead of the French elections and with no market-moving data on the calendar, the euro might continue to trade sideways within tight trading ranges. The German ZEW Survey is scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC but this report cannot be considered important enough to free the euro from its lethargy. In short-term time frames we expect the euro’s price action to be limited to a trading range of 1.0640 and 1.0530.
Daily Forex signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.
We are Maite & Marios Krausse, both born in Germany and trade full time in the Foreign Exchange Market (Forex) as independent traders.
Our teamwork began in 1998, when we got to know and love each other. 20 years later after having built our careers, our son was born, making us a happy family. Continue reading...
