British Pound Reacts With High Volatility To Opinion Polls

Dear Traders,

The pound sterling is reacting with high volatility to fresh opinion polls ahead of the June 8 U.K. general election. After rallying towards 1.29, the pound dropped sharply as a poll showed Theresa May’s Conservative Party may miss a majority. With sterling’s direction being determined by opinion polls, the technical outlook currently seems to recede into the background. For sterling traders, Tuesday has been a profitable trading day with our long entry hitting the profit target exactly before the pound reversed towards lower levels. If the GBP/USD drops below 1.2790 there could be a next barrier at 1.2750 which needs to be significantly broken in order to spark fresh bearish momentum.  On the topside, we still expect a crucial resistance at 1.2980.

For euro traders, the upward trend proved successful with the euro testing the 1.12-mark. From a technical perspective, the euro seems to be formatting a downward channel with the lower barrier currently coming in around 1.11 while the upper barrier, which is currently seen at 1.12, may limit near-term gains in the EUR/USD.

The euro-area’s preliminary headline inflation rate will be released today at 9:00 UTC and the euro might come under some selling pressure ahead of this report as economists forecast a slightly lower reading.

From the U.S., we have Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and the Fed’s Beige Book at 18:00 UTC scheduled for release.

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Euro And Cable Fall In Thin Trading

Dear Traders,

Trading was quiet on Monday with the euro and cable trading within tight trading ranges. Only at the end of the trading day, prices gathered momentum. The euro fell in thin trading below 1.1160 and headed towards 1.11. The cable dipped slightly below 1.28 but was able to hold above that support level. We now expect the 1.2760-level to lend some short-term support to the pound. Above 1.2865 however, the pound could head for a test of 1.2950/60.

EUR/USD

The euro broke below the 1.1160-support and as a result, bearish momentum accelerated. The euro might tend to test the 1.11-threshold before we see a reversal. On the upside we see a resistance at 1.1170 until which potential gains could be limited while on the bottom side, a crucial support area is currently seen at around 1.1080.

Important economic data for today:

12:00 EUR German Consumer Price

12:30 USA PCE Report

14:00 USA Consumer Confidence

(Time zone: UTC)

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Pound Slides On Narrowing U.K. Polls

Dear Traders,

The British pound came under increased selling pressure this morning after a poll showed U.K. Prime Minster Theresa May is losing ground ahead of next month’s election. Recently, the gap between Conservatives and Labour has narrowed, putting May’s Conservatives on 43 percent with Labour on 38 percent. The U.K. general election is scheduled to take place on 8 June 2017.

GBP/USD

The pound depreciated against the U.S. dollar and slid towards 1.2865. From a technical perspective, the cable broke below the recent uptrend channel but may find some halt around 1.2850 now. Below 1.2830 however, it could extend its slide towards the crucial support area between 1.2780 – 1.2750. On the topside, we see current resistances at 1.2980 and 1.3080.

The euro traded little changed on Thursday and remained within a small trading range between 1.1250 – 1.1185. We will pay attention to a sustained break below 1.1160, a level that proved to be an important support in short-term time frames. On the upside, any bullish movements might be limited until 1.1240.

Traders will be watching the U.S. GDP data release at 12:30 UTC. The GDP report is considered a high importance event for dollar traders and in case of any disappointment the greenback may struggle to find a bottom.

We wish you good trades for today and a beautiful weekend.

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Euro And Cable Remain Above Crucial Support Levels

Dear Traders,

The FOMC minutes failed to provide fresh hawkish evidence dollar bulls had hoped for and at the end of the trading day, there was nothing to gain. While the minutes confirmed the likelihood of a June rate hike, they have been casting doubts over the future trajectory for rate increases. Fed policy makers stated that they wanted more evidence that the recent economic slowdown is in fact transitory. Consequently, these statements were interpreted as slightly more dovish due to the lack of certainty to the policy pace. Following the disappointing minutes, the U.S. dollar gave up previous gains and pushed the euro and pound again higher in return.

The EUR/USD finally rose towards its recent resistance area around 1.1260. Once the 1.1270-level is broken to the upside the euro could climb towards 1.13 and 1.1350. On the bottom side, the 1.1160-support remains intact. There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today, so trading might be quiet.

The GBP/USD traded stable above 1.29 and every attempt to sell the pair below 1.2950 proved unsuccessful. Above 1.30 the pound may tend towards a renewed test of the 1.3040-resistance. A break of that level could result in a rise towards 1.3080. U.K. GDP figures are due for release at 8:30 UTC and if there is a surprise, the pound could react with a volatile price action.

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Euro Strength: No End In Sight, Next Target 1.13?

Dear Traders,

The euro further advanced against the U.S. dollar after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the euro is “too weak” because of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Her statement gave traders yet another reason to buy euros towards the next resistance level at 1.13. Speaking of euro strength, an end to the rally is not yet in sight and if the euro overcomes the 1.13-reistance significantly, we may see a run for 1.1420/50. A current support is however seen at around 1.1215, followed by a stronger support zone near 1.1170.

The German PMI report is scheduled for release at 7:30 UTC, followed by the German IFO Index 30 minutes later. However, none of these reports is expected to have a significant impact on the euro’s price action.

The British pound failed to make significant progress above the 1.30 level, whereas, on the other side, it was little affected by a terrorist attack at a concert in Manchester in which 22 people were killed. The pound traded resiliently between 1.3050 and 1.2965 and as long as it remains firmly above 1.29 we do not see any major downside risks. On the topside, the 1.3065-mark needs to be broken in order to spark fresh bullish momentum.

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No Hope For Dollar Bulls?

Dear Traders,

We welcome you to a new trading week. Last week ended with a spike high of 1.1212 in the EUR/USD while continuing U.S. dollar weakness remains the dominant market theme. The greenback still struggles to gain ground as political instability fears weigh on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike outlook. Investors fear that political chaos in the Trump administration may derail Trump’s plans for expansionary fiscal policy and thus deter the Fed from raising interest rates.

However, not all hope is lost for dollar bulls and if political uncertainties are abating, shifting the focus back to the administration’s fiscal program, the U.S. dollar could be poised for recovery. In the meantime we will mainly pay attention to the technical outlook in both major currency pairs.

The economic calendar this week is rather light in terms of market moving data. From the U.S., the most interesting pieces of data will be Friday’s GDP figures and Durable Goods Orders following Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes. Upbeat minutes may revive the dollar trade with market participants pricing in a more than 80 percent chance that the Fed will raise rates again in June.

The EUR/USD knew only one direction: upwards. From a technical perspective we now expect a next hurdle to come in around 1.13. Below 1.1070, however, the euro may drops towards a test of the 1.10-support.

The cable remained sideways whilst being accompanied by a slight upward tilt. We now expect the GBP/USD to trade between 1.3060 and 1.29.  A break above 1.3070 may send the pound towards 1.32.

Sterling traders should pay attention to any changes in the U.K. GDP figures, scheduled for release on Thursday.

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Euro Traders Profit From Weakening U.S. Dollar

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar is taking its cue from political turmoil surrounding the Trump administration. In times of political uncertainty and unpredictability in the U.S., many investors got rid of their dollar positions which contribute to the recent dollar weakness. The euro, in return, benefited from the weakening greenback and rose towards 1.1175. There is no major resistance until 1.12, so euro bulls may tend to test that level before taking profits on euro long positions. Following the strong rally in the EUR/USD and four consecutive days of higher highs the pair finds itself in overbought territory, a fact that increases the likelihood of near-term corrections.

While we see a next hurdle at around 1.12, a break above 1.1220 could push the euro even higher towards 1.13. However, traders should now prepare for potential corrections. Current support levels are seen at 1.11, 1.1080 and 1.1020.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release from the Eurozone but it might be worth watching ECB President Draghi‘s remarks on monetary policy when he speaks in Tel Aviv at 17:00 UTC.

The pound sterling was accompanied by a slight upward tilt, even if the 1.30-resistance level still remains unbroken. Once that level is breached to the upside, we could see sterling rising towards 1.3040 and possibly even 1.3120.

The U.K. Retail Sales report is due for release at 8:30 UTC and could have an impact on the price action in the cable. If the pound drops back below 1.2930 it could find a next halt at around 1.2870.

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Will U.K. CPI Data Prompt Sterling Bulls For A Run For 1.30?

Dear Traders,

Euro bulls have regained control and pushed the EUR/USD up to a test of 1.10 this morning. Traders are now on the look-out for a sustained upside-break of that psychological level. If the euro breaks above 1.1023, the opening price following the first round of French elections, we see chances of a climb towards 1.1070. On the bottom side, we expect a current support to be around 1.09. The most important piece of Eurozone data this morning will be the Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter, scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC. At the same time, the German ZEW Survey is due for release. Any upside surprises could translate into further euro strength.

The British pound found some halt near 1.2880 after an attempt to break the 1.2940-level has failed. All eyes will be on the Consumer Price report, scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and if inflation data is upbeat, the pound could trade higher targeting 1.2970 and 1.3020. Current support levels are however seen at 1.2860 and 1.28.

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Euro Bulls Profit From U.S. Dollar Weakness

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the euro and British pound after U.S. retail sales and CPI data fell short of estimates. Following Friday’s softer reports, the odds for a Federal Reserve rate increase next month have fallen to about 70 percent, even though data was still good enough to bolster the case for tightening in June.

EUR/USD

The euro rose towards its 1.0950-resistance after re-testing the current support zone ranging from 1.0855 to 1.0820. We will now pay close attention to a renewed break above 1.0950 which could result in a climb towards 1.1050.

Despite the low-volatile market environment there might be a catalyst for some swings throughout this week. The German ZEW Survey is due for release on Tuesday, followed by the Eurozone Consumer Price Report which is due on Wednesday and a speech of ECB President Draghi on Thursday.

GBP/USD

The pound sterling remained range-bound between 1.2990 and 1.2845 and traders still wait for, at least, a test of 1.30. It could be an interesting week for sterling traders with U.K. Consumer Prices (Tuesday), Employment data (Wednesday) and Retail Sales (Thursday) scheduled for release. Most of these reports are expected to surprise to the upside, so we may see a run for 1.30 and possibly even a test of 1.3050.

A bearish break below 1.2750 however, could increase bearish momentum towards lower targets around 1.26.

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BoE Disappoints, Pound Falls, What’s Next?

Dear Traders,

The Bank of England disappointed investors that have been buying the British pound ahead of the Inflation report as the medium-term inflation forecast came in lower than expected. Traders who had hoped for a hawkish tone or more than one dissent calling for a rate hike in the BoE’s monetary policy statement were disappointed. Officials cut their economic growth forecasts this year to 1.9 percent from 2 percent. While the BoE sees a slightly weaker path in the medium-term it expects inflation to be accelerating again by the end of 2019. To sum up, it can be said that the central bank is moving more slowly with a potential rate hike not being in the cards until 2019.

The pound dropped in response to the weaker forecasts but the slide came to a halt at around 1.2850. If sterling climbs back above 1.29 and is able to hold above that level we shift our focus back to a potential test of the 1.30-resistance level.

Today, traders will pay close attention to important U.S. economic reports such as Retail Sales and Consumer Prices, both reports are due for release at 12:30 UTC. Investors are looking for a positive reading, confirming that the U.S. economy is picking up the pace enough to withstand higher interest rates. However, a disappointment in U.S. data could send the dollar lower, providing the basis for fresh upswings in the cable and euro.

Last but not least, University of Michigan Confidence is due for release at 14:00 UTC.

We wish you good trades and a wonderful weekend.

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