Can FOMC Minutes Fuel Demand For Dollars?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar’s relief rally has lost some momentum with both EUR/USD and GBP/USD heading upwards. From a technical perspective it is noteworthy that the important resistance levels in both major currency pairs are still unbroken, at least for now. The greenback may receive attraction ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes which are scheduled for release today at 18:00 UTC. Bearing in mind that the Federal Reserve plans to raise interest rates one more time this year followed by another three hikes next year, the minutes should confirm the hawkish outlook. While this alone is dollar positive we have to consider that a December rate hike has been largely priced in by the markets. Thus, the minutes could possibly be a non-event for traders today but let us be surprised.

On the flipside, the euro received some support from Catalonia’s president Carles Puigdemont who stepped back from an immediate declaration of independence from Spain. He said he would “suspend” the referendum result for a period of some weeks for dialogue with Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s administration. The euro rose towards its resistance area at 1.1830-40 but as long as that barrier remains unbroken, we expect the euro to drop back towards 1.1775 and possible even 1.17.

The British pound touched the lower bound of its current resistance zone ranging from 1.3250 to 1.3220. In short-term time frames we see the cable formatting a potential double top pattern which could predict upcoming bearish momentum, provided that the cable remains below 1.3230. A break below 1.3175 could reignite bearish momentum driving the pair towards 1.3130.

Apart from the FOMC minutes there are no major drivers in the market today. Let us wait to be surprised.

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Greenback Strengthens Pre-NFP

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Dear Traders,

Finally, the U.S. dollar returned to its former strength pre-NFP with also EUR/USD joining the downward trend. The euro gave way to the strengthening dollar and thus, EUR/USD dropped below 1.17 after gains were capped at 1.1780.

The main topic in the market was however the fall of the British pound which came under severe downward pressure after chaotic U.K. politics put the country’s outlook on very shaky foundations. The pound came under selling pressure after UK Prime Minister Theresa May put in a disastrous performance at the annual conference of her Conservative Party. Her speech was disrupted by prankster and then by a coughing fit. That disastrous speech weakened her position as PM while the idea of replacing May in the middle of Brexit negotiations is widely viewed with horror. A replacement by Brexit hardliner Boris Johnson could make a deal with the EU harder rather than easier to reach.

The GBP/USD fell below important support-levels at 1.3150 and 1.31 and could now be headed towards a test of 1.30.

Today, all eyes will be on the Non-farm payrolls report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

The U.S. September Employment report is expected to show a weaker reading due to the impact of hurricanes on southern states. Meanwhile, comments from Fed officials reinforced optimism ahead of the jobs report, saying Fed policymakers “pencil in” a rate hike in December and three hikes next year. The priced-in probability of a December rate hike is currently at 75 percent.

If payrolls beat expectations, the greenback will receive a boost and could further rise against the euro and pound.

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U.S. Dollar Directionless Despite Strong U.S. Data

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Dear Traders,

There was little consistency in the performance of the U.S. dollar on Wednesday despite the unexpected strength of the ISM Non-Manufacturing data. The jump in the ISM services index is an argument in favor of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. While this should actually be positive for the greenback, we saw EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading sideways.

GBP/USD

Bearish momentum is not fading and it seems as if the pair tends to test the lower support zone at 1.32-1.3150 before starting a potential reversal. Based on the current downtrend channel we expect a short-term resistance to come in at around 1.33. Above 1.3315, a next target could be at 1.3350.

Looking at the economic calendar, the only interesting piece of data will be the ECB minutes due for release at 11:30 UTC. Investors brace for monetary policy changes at the European Central bank and expect such decisions to be made at the next ECB meeting on October 26. Speculation about monetary policy tightening at the ECB have a generally positive influence on the euro.

If the euro climbs back above 1.1810 and further 1.1835 it could be headed for a test of 1.19. On the bottom side, the focus remains on a break below 1.1680 and further 1.1660.

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U.S. Dollar Weakness Ahead? ADP And ISM Reports In Focus

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Dear Traders,

Trading was relatively quiet Tuesday with the U.S. dollar’s latest recovery losing some momentum. After crucial support zones in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD have been tested, it seems that the euro and pound could find a bottom in the near-term.

EUR/USD: The euro strengthened against the greenback after dipping slightly below 1.17. With the 1.17-support still unbroken, our focus now turns to the 1.1820/30-resistance level which could limit gains in short-term time frames.

GBP/USD: The cable was able to stabilize above 1.3235 and we now anticipate some pullback towards 1.3340/50. For the bias to shift from bearish to bullish it would need a sustained break above 1.3460. A lower support is however seen at 1.3180.

How the dollar will trade within the next two days will mainly depend on the U.S. employment data. Today we have the ADP private payrolls (12:15 UTC) and the ISM service sector activity report (14:00 UTC) scheduled for release. Traders should pay close attention to these reports as they could determine how the USD will trade ahead of the U.S. payrolls report on Friday. Furthermore, we have another speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen at 19:15 UTC.

Sterling traders may also keep an eye on the U.K. PMI report due for release at 8:30 UTC.

After yesterday’s quiet trading we expect higher volatility today and wish you good trades.

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Euro And Pound Depreciate Against U.S. Dollar

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Dear Traders,

Monday’s worst performing currency was the British pound which fell towards 1.3250 after weak U.K. manufacturing figures prompted concerns over the country’s health. The GBP/USD extended its slide this morning and tagged a low at 1.3229. On the other side, a stronger U.S. dollar contributed to the cable’s decline. After testing the crucial support area around 1.3230/1.32, we will shift our focus now to a significant break of that support-zone which could lead to further losses towards 1.3150 and 1.3050. With GBP/USD remaining below 1.34 we generally favor the bearish bias in short-term time frames.

The U.K. Construction PMI report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC, but this report is not expected to have a major impact on the pound.

The euro extended its slide against the greenback and fell towards 1.17. The U.S. dollar’s recovery was bolstered by a stronger ISM manufacturing sector activity index, which hit a 13-year high. As mentioned in our yesterday’s analysis we still wait for a significant break below 1.1680 in order to anticipate further losses in the EUR/USD.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today, so the price action could hinge on the appetite for dollars.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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