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Archive for month: March, 2018
Will Turn-Around Tuesday Live Up To Its Name Following Bullish Breakouts?
Dear Traders,
It has been a profitable trading day for both euro and sterling bulls. The euro rose to a five-week high against the dollar and we were thus able to book a good profit by trading our long signal yesterday.
Trading the bullish breakout in the GBP/USD went also very well and the big question among traders is now whether there will be further gains. While momentum is still undeniably bullish, the pound is at overbought levels in larger time frames and traders should therefore prepare for pullbacks in short-term time frames. As long as the pound remains above 1.42 we favor a bullish stance, targeting at higher levels at 1.43 and 1.4350. If the pound falls below 1.4190 we expect it to extend its slide towards 1.4150 and 1.41.
The same is true for the EUR/USD: The euro remains in overbought territory and traders should therefore anticipate upcoming corrections. If the euro remains trading between 1.2490 and 1.24 a short-term uptrend channel remains intact. If the euro, however, drops back below 1.2350, the bias shifts from bullish to neutral.
Moreover, traders should bear in mind that today is Tuesday and while this is a normal weekday the so-called ‘Turnaround Tuesday’ often lived up to its name after significant price breakouts on Monday. In a nutshell, watch out for potential reversals today.
The only piece of economic data will be U.S. Consumer Confidence due at 14:00 UTC.
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
Trade War Has Begun
Dear Traders,
Yesterday was the official start of a trade war with the Trump administration announcing a at least $50 billion tariff on Chinese imports. And that decision had a reciprocal effect. Subsequently, China announced plans for tariffs on $3 billion of imports from the U.S., including products from steel to pork.
Investors now fear an escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China while an escalation in trade wars could hurt global growth.
The Japanese yen served as a safe haven while the U.S. dollar’s fate is still uncertain amidst an uncertain geopolitical environment.
The British pound’s reaction to the Bank of England announcement was strong but short-lived. The BoE rate decision was a bit more hawkish than expected, increasing the odds for a next rate in May to 72 percent now. The pound soared to a high of 1.4220 but quickly deviated from its highs as market participants took profit at 1.42. We still see the pound trading within an uptrend channel which is why we expect further gains towards 1.4270. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, the current support around 1.4070 proved intact from where some buyers have shown up. For the bias to shift from bullish to bearish it would require a sustained break below 1.40.
The euro bounced off the falling trendline and tested the 1.23/1.2280 support area. If the euro climbs back above 1.2370 we expect further gains towards 1.24. A break above 1.2415 would shift the bias in favor of the bulls.
Traders will watch U.S. Durable Goods Orders today at 12:30 UTC.
It has been a very profitable trading week and we therefore advise traders to secure their weekly profit now.
Enjoy the weekend.
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
Focus Turns To The Fed: Dot-Plot To Show 4 Rate Hikes This Year?
Dear Traders,
This trading week has been, so far, not only volatile but also very profitable for traders. Yesterday, we saw the U.S. dollar gaining back ground against the euro and British pound ahead of today’s highly anticipated FOMC decision. Thus, short traders were able to book a good profit.
The pound slipped below 1.40 after U.K. inflation data came in worse-than-expected but losses were limited due to hopes that tomorrow’s Bank of England statement will be hawkish.
The euro sold off after the German and Eurozone ZEW Surveys fell well below expectations.
Today, all eyes will be on the Fed decision due at 18:00 UTC followed by Jerome Powell’s news conference 30 minutes later. Market participants are curious whether the central bank will lift its projections for the pace of policy tightening this year. While a 25-basis-point rate is almost certain the focus will turn to updated economic projections (SEP – Summary of Economic Projections) and the Fed’s dot plot forecast. If the dot plot shows monetary policy makers favoring 4 rate hikes this year, the dollar will rise. Anything else could disappoint the market’s high expectations and could send the dollar tumbling.
While today’s Fed decision will be one of the most important decisions in years, it does not mean that it will be market-moving in terms of profitable trading opportunities. As usual, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios and will update traders (subscribers) about all current and pending trades on our live signal page.
We wish you profitable trades for today!
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
British Pound: Further Gains Or Bearish Pullback Ahead?
Dear Traders,
The biggest story in the markets on Monday was the bullish breakout of the British pound, which soared to a high of 1.4088 after it broke above the psychological level of 1.40. The bullish breakout was triggered shortly after the announcement of an agreement on a transition plan for the period after Brexit. The big question among traders is now whether there could be further gains in the pound.
Today, we have U.K. Inflation numbers due for release at 9:30 UTC and the expectation is for a 2.8 percent read from previously 3 percent. A weaker reading could be an excuse for sterling bulls to take profit on long positions. In a nutshell, there is a risk of a bearish pullback if inflation disappoints.
GBP/USD: If the pound drops below the 1.40-barrier it may extend its slide towards 1.3950. On the topside, if the pound climbs back above 1.4050 it could extend its gains towards 1.41.
The euro was able to stabilize above 1.23 and appears to be heading towards 1.2370 now. For euro bulls it will be interesting whether the euro could also overcome the 1.24-hurdle in the near-term.
From the Eurozone we have the ZEW Survey scheduled for release at 10:00 UTC.
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
Currency Pairs Remain Range-Bound Ahead Of Next Week’s Central Bank Meetings
Dear Traders,
The euro and pound were unable to hold onto their recent gains and weakened against the U.S. dollar Thursday despite political turmoil in the Trump administration. The euro tested the 1.23-threshold but was able to stabilize above that barrier – at least for the time being. Short traders were able to pocket a good profit yesterday as we entered short as soon as the euro dropped below 1.2350.
The pound sterling still rejects 1.40 and thus, remains range-bound between 1.40 and 1.39. As long as there is no sustained break above or below that range, there is nothing new to report.
This Friday we do not have great expectations as the focus turns to the central bank meetings next week so market movements could be flat ahead of the upcoming risk events.
Traders may keep an eye on the Eurozone Consumer Price Index at 10:00 UTC and the University of Michigan Sentiment at 14:00 UTC. However, none of these reports is expected to have a significant impact on the currencies.
We wish you a beautiful weekend!
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
USD Falls On White House Instability, EUR And GBP Trend Upwards
Dear Traders,
The pound was yesterday’s best performer while GBP/USD broke above a descending trend line that is held in the cable since January. As mentioned in previous analysis, we now take a rather bullish stance in this pair but recommend long-term oriented traders waiting for a bullish break of the 1.40-barrier.
The U.K.’s Spring Budget statement has helped the pound to regain some strength as growth forecasts were upgraded.
U.S. CPI data, on the other side, was not strong enough to alter Fed rate hike expectations and thus, the dollar weakened against other major peers. The next FOMC meeting is on March 21 but with inflation holding steady, market participants are bracing for a dovish rate hike next week.
Meanwhile, the dollar came under increased pressure as White House instability continues. U.S. President Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and this sudden staff turnover comes only one week after Gary Cohn resigned from the White House. Trump administration concerns generally pose a threat to the greenback.
GBP/USD: The pound broke out of its triangle formation and headed towards 1.40. We now wait for a sustained break above that psychological barrier in order to anticipate further gains towards 1.4070 and 1.4150. A lower support is seen around the 1.3830-level.
EUR/USD: The euro traded with a tailwind on the back of a weakening dollar while breaking above 1.2370. As expected in Monday’s analysis, that upside break encouraged bulls to drive the euro toward a test of 1.24 and it will be interesting whether the single currency is able to stabilize above that level.
Today we will listen to ECB President Draghi’s speech at 8:00 UTC and keep an eye on the U.S. Retail Sales Report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
U.S. CPI Data In Focus Today
Dear Traders,
The British pound ended the trading day in positive territory after news emerged that a Brexit transition deal could be announced in the coming days. The transition deal would give the U.K. two years beyond the March 2019 exit to implement new laws and regulations outside the EU bloc.
Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. Spring Budget statement today at 11:30 UTC. U.K. Chancellor Philip Hammond is likely to reveal an improvement in U.K. public finances. An upbeat tone could therefore spur bullish momentum in the GBP/USD.
Today, the U.S. Consumer Price Index is due at 12:30 UTC and this inflation indicator could shift Fed rate forecasts. A March 21 rate hike is almost certain but the focus will be on the debate between 3 and 4 hikes throughout this year. How the dollar will trade within the next hours could therefore hinge on today’s inflation numbers.
The euro ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the dollar while profitable trading opportunities were absent. As long as the euro remains above 1.23 we see the chances in favor of the bulls.
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
Will Payrolls Lead To Further Losses In EUR/USD And GBP/USD?
Dear Traders,
The ECB’s policy decision came as a surprise for many market participants as policymakers decided to change their guidance by dropping a pledge to increase QE if needed. This tiny step to policy normalization shows confidence in the durability of euro-area growth. The euro initially rose on that hawkish bias but it was ECB President Draghi’s comments at the press conference that send the euro tumbling.
For euro bulls it should have been no surprise that the euro sharply reversed after another test of 1.2450 failed to provide a breakout. Rather, bearish momentum accelerated after the euro dropped below 1.2380 for a second time with the focus now turning to the 1.2280-support level.
The reason for the euro’s decline was that Mario Draghi gave a rather dovish speech saying that he sees interest rates at their present levels well beyond the end of QE. This dovish tone was all traders needed to sell euros toward lower levels.
The British pound was hurt by news from U.K. officials saying that they see “no Brexit deal until next year”. The pound fell toward a low of 1.3780 and currently struggles to hold above 1.38. If it falls below 1.3750 we will focus on lower targets at 1.3710 and 1.3610. A current resistance is however seen at 1.3890.
From the U.K. we have Manufacturing Production figures scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC but this report should take a backseat to the U.S. Nonfarm-payrolls report due at 13:30 UTC, which will receive more attention.
Heading into today’s NFP release, current expectations for the data are modest, with the unemployment rate expected to drop to 4.0 percent and the headline jobs figure to come in at 205K. The focus will also be on average hourly earnings.
Have a nice weekend.
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
Draghi Is Unlikely To Signal Early Exit From The ECB’s QE Program
Dear Traders,
As expected, the euro rejected the 1.2450-level in a first attempt but the single currency was able to hold above $ 1.24 ahead of the upcoming ECB monetary policy announcement. While no changes in interest rates are expected, the focus will be on a fresh set of economic projections and ECB President Draghi’s commentary on what could happen to the central bank’s QE program which is due to run until September.
There is still a high degree of ECB optimism in the market and given that optimistic sentiment market participants may tend to push the EUR/USD higher even though Mario Draghi is unlikely to signal an early exit to their QE program. Traders should bear in mind that making significant adjustments to their communication right now could cause confusion which is why ECB policymakers could maintain a cautious stance for the time being. Mr. Draghi is not in a hurry to announce a change right now. Therefore, the ECB could hold off until the summer to start talking about unwinding QE and tell the market when rates will begin to rise.
The ECB will announce its rate decision at 12:45 UTC, followed by the ECB’s press conference 45 minutes later.
EUR/USD
The euro is still calm but, as usual, we will prepare for heightened volatility during the day.
For bullish momentum to continue we would need to see a break above 1.2480 and 1.25. A higher target could then be at around 1.2560. In the chart below we have sketched out potential support areas which could be tested in case of a bearish twist. The nearest support comes in at 1.2350 from where buyers could swoop in – depending on the ECB’s commentary. A break below 1.2330 could send the euro lower towards 1.2280.
Let us be surprised.
GBP/USD: The price action in the cable is still messy with the pair struggling to find a clear direction. Yesterday we saw the pound confined to a small trading range between 1.3910 and 1.3845. In terms of profitable trading opportunities, the recent price development leaves much to be desired for day traders.
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
We are Maite & Marios Krausse, both born in Germany and trade full time in the Foreign Exchange Market (Forex) as independent traders.
Our teamwork began in 1998, when we got to know and love each other. 20 years later after having built our careers, our son was born, making us a happy family. Continue reading...
