Euro Jumps On Migration Deal At EU Summit

Dear Traders,

There was nothing to gain for day traders on Thursday with the price action in both major currency pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD remaining limited to a tight trading range. Rather, we suffered losses while trying to benefit from the choppy swings yesterday. The moderate market development can be attributed to lacking fundamental headlines, while the first day of the EU Leaders summit ended without a deal on migration issues. However, those that had a look at the market in today’s early trading hours may have wondered what happened to the euro which showed an impressive rise towards a high at 1.1666. News that EU leaders have reached a deal on migration at the summit spurred the euro’s bullish price action in early Asian trading. The euro jumped at the prospect of the deal defusing a dispute over how to share the burden of immigration within the EU.

EUR/USD: As stated in yesterday’s analysis, as long as the 1.15-support holds we expect the euro to test the 1.17-resistance and possibly even the 1.18-handle.

GBP/USD: The pound rose in tandem with the euro this morning but was unable to overcome the short-term resistance at 1.3130, at least until now. A break above 1.3130 could result in an upswing towards 1.3150/70 whereas a renewed break below 1.3060 could lead to a test of 1.30.

Today we will watch the U.K. GDP Report, due at 8:30 UTC, followed by the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (9:00 UTC) and the U.S. PCE Index (12:30 UTC).

Have a wonderful weekend.

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U.S. Dollar Strengthened Against Euro And Pound – Now What?

Dear Traders,

The euro came down from its most recent high at 1.1720 while Tuesday’s decline in the EUR/USD was mainly due to a strengthening U.S. dollar. We now turn our focus to a day trading range between 1.1685-1.1630 and keep tabs on price breakouts either above or below that range in order to evaluate profitable trading chances in the near-term. If the euro is able to overcome the 1.1715-hurdle again, we expect accelerated bullish momentum towards 1.1820. As for the bears, the 1.1510/00-level remains of crucial importance in terms of a profitable breakout level.

The only piece of economic data today will be U.S. Durable Goods Orders at 12:30 UTC.

The British pound depreciated against the greenback and tested the 1.32-support level. As long as 1.32 holds we turn our focus to a break above the 1.33-handle. Below 1.3190 however, the pound may suffer further losses towards 1.3150 and 1.3070.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak about the Financial Stability Report today at 8:30 UTC although he is not expected to drift too far from the subject. Thus, the impact on the pound could be less significant.

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Pound Surges On BoE Rate Hike Speculation

Dear Traders,

The Bank of England delivered a hawkish twist at yesterday’s BoE meeting and the British pound responded with a short squeeze towards 1.3270. The MPC voted 6-3 to hold rates steady, but the fact that there were three dissents voting in favor of an immediate rate hike leaves room for speculation about a rate increase in August. Thus, odds for a rate hike at the next BoE decision in August have increased to 45 percent from 33 percent, which in turn pushed the pound sterling towards higher price levels.

Following yesterday’s short squeeze, we may now see some consolidated movement between 1.33-1.32. If the pound is, however, able to overtake the 1.33-handle we expect a higher resistance at 1.34. Traders should generally expect more strength in the pound as we approach the BoE August meeting.

As for the U.S. dollar, the last trading session was dominated by intense selling pressure with prices rebounding off an 11-month high. We will keep tabs on the technical picture but will also take into account volatile fundamental themes such as escalating trade tensions between the US and China which are continuing to roil the markets in the near-term.

The euro benefited from the selling pressure in the greenback and recovered some losses after sellers got shy as the euro approached the 1.15-boundary.

Technically speaking, we still see the EUR/USD confined to a sideways trading range between 1.17 – 1.15.  As long as this range holds, the outlook remains neutral. For the bias to slightly shift in favor of the bulls, we would need to see a sustained break above 1.1730 with higher resistances coming in at 1.1850 and 1.19.

Have a beautiful weekend.

 

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BoE Decision: Is August Rate Hike Still In The Cards?

Dear Traders,

The British pound ended the trading day little changed against the U.S. dollar after compromise has been reached between the U.K. government and Parliament on the progress of the EU Brexit bill. The pound’s rise to a high of 1.3217 proved short-lived and traders now wonder whether the 1.3140-level could give way to further bearish momentum. A lower target could be at 1.3080.

Today, all eyes will turn to the Bank of England rate decision at 11:00 UTC but there aren’t any actual expectations for a move at this meeting. The big question is rather whether the BoE begins to lay the groundwork for a possible rate hike in August. This is, however, not the most likely scenario.

After that rate decision, BoE Governor Mark Carney is due for his annual Mansion House speech and this may actually turn out to be a more proactive driver for the pound. Carney’s speech will be widely-watched for clues or hints around his expectations for the UK economy.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Subdued Price Action

Dear Traders,

Trading was subdued on Monday with both major currency pairs fluctuating in tight ranges.

As expected, the euro recovered some of its losses towards 1.1650 after it failed to break below 1.1550. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, a near-term resistance is in the 1.1650-1.1720 region from where sellers in the EUR/USD may take the opportunity to sell euros at higher levels.

ECB President Draghi will deliver another speech today (8:00 UTC) at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal.

The GBP/USD has shown little willingness to test the 1.32-level and finally headed towards 1.3280 this morning. A next hurdle could come in at 1.33 now, followed by 1.3420.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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No Signals Service Between June 8 – June 15

Out of office note:

Dear traders, we will be out of office from June 8 until June 15.  During that period, we will be unable to provide our signal service.

Best regards,

The MaiMarFX team

GBP/USD Tests Crucial Price Levels

Dear Traders,

The British pound has broken lower against the U.S. dollar after rejecting the 1.34-hurdle. The cable is still trading within a bullish channel, at least as long as 1.33 holds. We therefore may see a run for 1.3420, provided that the pound remains above 1.3290.

The EUR/USD failed to show any signs of a sustained recovery Monday while the upward movement was limited to a high of 1.1744. As long as the euro holds above 1.1675 we may see a leg higher towards 1.1850. On the bottom side we will pay attention to lower supports at 1.16 and 1.1550.

This week we will see a slew of Bank of England speakers as well as ECB President Mario Draghi who is scheduled to speak in Frankfurt today at 13:00 UTC.

For sterling traders, the U.K. Services PMI due at 8:30 UTC might be of interest, followed by a speech of BoE member Cunliffe.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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NFP Data To Spur USD Strength?

Dear Traders,

Global trade war fears are back in focus after news that the Trump administration was pursuing the metal tariffs against the EU, Canada and Mexico. While the news has led to a slide in the S&P 500 and Dow, the U.S. dollar received only little attention. The greenback is still seen as the top reserve currency but whether it can hold that title in the future remains an open question.

The euro received a slight boost from updates from Italy that an election is basically off the table. The Italian Five-Star Movement and the League parties have reached a new agreement on a possible coalition government. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte accepted an offer to form a new government with the Eurosceptic Paolo Savona who has been named as EU affairs minister.

Today, all eyes will turn to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report due at 12:30 UTC.  The U.S. economy is expected to have added 190K jobs in May while wages are expected to post modest upticks. An upside surprise in any headline figure of the report could spur the dollar’s strength.

We wish you good trades and a relaxing weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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