Dear Traders,
As expected, there wasn’t much volatility in the Forex market Wednesday with the euro and pound remaining within narrow price ranges. The GBP/USD was able to stabilize above 1.32 following an upbeat U.K. Services PMI report but the pair rejected the 1.3250-hurdle, at least for now. Generally speaking, the medium-term outlook for the pound is still bullish as market participants prepare for a potential rate hike in August. Odds for an August rate hike are currently at 53 percent.
BoE Governor Carney speaks in Newcastle today at 10:00 UTC and any comments on monetary policy could get the pound moving.
The euro appears to lose some of its downside momentum while we see a higher likelihood of an imminent break above 1.1690 and possibly even 1.1720 in the short-term. The euro’s slight upward bias was also backed by reports that some ECB members are seeing a rate hike in late 2019 as ‘too late’.
From the U.S. we have the ADP report, scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC, followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing index at 14:00 UTC.
Last but not least, we will pay attention to the FOMC meeting minutes due at 18:00 UTC, which are expected to have a positive tone. If the minutes signal further steepening in the appropriate policy path, the dollar could receive some fresh boost.
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