Happy New Year 2022!

As we step into another year, we would like to thank all of you for your support! We hope the coming will be just as fruitful and rewarding as the last year was!

Happy New Year everyone and many good trades for the year ahead!

The MaiMarFX Team

 

 

No Signal Service From 20/12/21 till 3/1/22

Dear traders,

We will be on holiday from 20/12/21 till 3/1/22. During that time there will be no signal service.

We wish you a joyous holiday season with peace & cheer in the New Year!

Stay healthy! Stay strong!

 

All the best from the MaiMarFX team

Surprise Means Profits

Surprise, surprise. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 15 basis points for the first time since the beginning of the crisis. The hike came as a surprise for many market participants and has thus sent the pound surging against other peers. As traders, we were able to catch the big fish in the GBP/USD with our long entry at 1.3270 hitting precisely its profit target at 1.3370 before price reversed.

The European Central Bank will wind down its emergency stimulus as planned in March. As for rate hikes, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that a rate increase in the euro zone isn’t going to happen any time soon. The EUR/USD hit a two-week high at 1.1360 but remained below crucial resistance levels. We profited with our long entry at 1.1310.

We will save our weekly profits and wish everyone a good weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

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ECB To Remain Dovish?

Market participants seems to be having enough of the U.S. dollar rally while the greenback may have reached the peak of its rally.

The Federal Reserve announced that it will double the pace of its taper to $30 billion a month and projected three quarter-point interest rate increases in 2022, another three in 2023 and two more in 2024.  The updated dot plot shows a much more aggressive tightening cycle than envisioned in September when Fed policy makers saw only half a hike.

Despite the Fed’s hawkish turn, the market’s reaction was muted since much of the move was already priced in. We bear in mind that if the demand for dollars is fading, it could mean that a reversal is just around the corner.

Having the Fed behind us, the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will release their respective policy statements today.

The Bank of England surprised markets at its last policy meeting by electing not to raise interest rates despite rampant inflation. The central bank may choose to hold off on a rate hike yet again, as the country struggles with the spread of the Omicron variant. However, rate hikes are just around the corner while the BoE is expected to hike next year.

The European Central Bank was sounding more dovish of late than other central banks. While the ECB may announce an alteration to its pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP), policymakers may choose to remain dovish as the continent struggles with Omicron. The reemergence of lockdowns and rising infection rates could hamper Eurozone growth, which could force the ECB to remain dovish for the near-term. Economists don’t expect the first rate increase until 2023 at the earliest. Any hawkish surprise today will let the euro fly.

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We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Can Powell Meet The Market’s Hawkish Expectations?

Today is the Federal Reserve’s rate decision day and market participants expect the Fed to unveil a quicker tapering of bond purchases that paves the way for interest rate hikes next year. We will remain cautious going into the FOMC announcement at 19:00 UTC tonight.

Expectations are very high and so is the risk for disappointment. The market currently expects the Fed to raise rates next year three times with a 61.5 percent probability of at least three hikes. There is even a 31.8 percent probability of four rate hikes in 2022.

The broad-based U.S. dollar strength remained in-play until today as the market discounted the Fed’s hawkish approach but can the Fed live up to the market’s high expectations? Maybe not as the omicron variant created a bit of concern for economic trends and should the Fed share this concern at today’s press conference, investors could give up on dollar long positions. In terms of rate hike expectations, traders will want to see at least two rate hikes next year via the dot plot matrix to remain dollar bullish.

Anything is possible today and traders are well advised to maintain a cautious approach going into today’s policy decision.

Breakout-Mode

EUR/USD: Below 1.1220, euro-bears could send the pair for another test of 1.12/1.1185. If 1.1180 breaks, bearish momentum could accelerate toward 1.11 and maybe even 1.10 but for such a strong dollar move we would need a hawkish shift from the Fed. In case of a disappointment, we could see a short-squeeze with a test of the resistance zones at 1.1320-40 and 1.14.

GBP/USD: Holding above 1.3120 and 1.31 could pave the way for a reversal toward 1.35 and maybe even 1.37. The Bank of England is expected to hike next and if the dollar’s strength fades, sterling bulls may take the opportunity to push the cable higher.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Daily Trading Ideas

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1320

Short @ 1.1260

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3235

Short @ 1.3185

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 15680

Short @ 15630

ETH/USD

Long @ 3860

Short @ 3720

 

Monthly results 2021:

 

November 2021: +452 pips

October 2021: +165 pips

September 2021: +578 pips

August 2021: +135 pips

July 2021: +34 pips

June 2021: +264 pips

May 2021: +528 pips

April 2021: +278 pips

March 2021: +45 pips

February 2021: +42 pips

January 2021: +472 pips

 

Results 2020:

December 2020: +318 pips

November 2020: +75 pips

October 2020: +432 pips

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Event-Laden Trading Week

Welcome to the last fully-liquid and event-laden trading week of the year 2021. Before the liquidity drain towards the end of the year, this week is overloaded with major event risk such as the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday and the rate decisions of the Bank of England and European Central Bank on Thursday. Traders are thus prepared for surprise volatility this week.

Top event risk will be Wednesday’s FOMC decision and while the tone-setting Federal Reserve carries far more weight than other central banks, the Fed will avoid triggering surprise volatility. There will be no change in interest rates but catalysts for potential market moves will be the pace of tapering and the timeline for rate hikes. FOMC officials have recently signaled a hawkish shift in their policy stance amidst elevated inflation (CPI hit a nearly four-decade high last Friday), robust economic growth and strengthening labor market conditions. Market participants have thus pushed rate hike speculation up to two full Fed hikes in 2022. Even if Fed officials have turned slightly more hawkish, the Fed perhaps cannot live up to the market’s more hawkish expectations. Traders should thus be prepared for disappointment and a potential U.S. dollar retreat.

Bank of England rate hike unlikely

The risks remain tilted to the downside for the British pound while the market still sees a 42 percent chance of a 15bps rate hike Thursday. However, the BoE is not expected to raise rates this time due to the newly uncertain economic outlook. Moreover, the BoE is much more likely to raise rates in months when it also delivers forecasts and a press conference where it can explain the decision to the public. The next one of those will be in February. Nonetheless we bear in mind that policy makers have warned that the consequences might be steeper when rates are raised later. In other words, BoE policy makers may have to raise rates further than markets currently expect to moderate inflationary pressures.

GBP/USD Technical view: Chances of a reversal

Given the oversold situation of the pound in longer time frames, we may get close to peak bearishness with increasing chances of a reversal toward 1.35. As long as the cable holds above 1.3150 and 1.31, bulls may regain some control in this pair.

Euro traders are well advised to sit on the sidelines until Thursday

The European Central bank meeting on Thursday is difficult to predict as there could be an internal battle between hawks and doves. The dovish core of the council will want to avoid premature tightening while high inflation and near-term upside risks could justify the removal of the ECB’s policy support. However, as long as an interest rate hike is not in the cards, the euro may trend to the downside against other peers.

EUR/USD Technical view: Waiting for a bear flag confirmation

In longer time frames the euro formatted a potential bear flag (green trend channel lines) within the recent downtrend. Should the pair now show a weekly close below 1.1250, we could have a confirmation of the bear flag with the focus shifting to lower targets at 1.11 and 1.10. For a bullish breakout on the other side, we would need to see a significant break above 1.1450. As long as the euro remains trading between 1.1450 and 1.1250, we will maintain a wait-and-see attitude.

Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Eventgeladene Handelswoche

Willkommen zur letzten vollliquiden und ereignisreichen Handelswoche des Jahres 2021. Bevor sich die Liquidität zum Jahresende ausdünnt ist diese Woche noch voll beladen mit gewichtigen Risikoevents wie der FOMC-Zinsentscheidung am Mittwoch und den Zinsentscheidungen der Bank von England und der Europäischen Zentralbank am Donnerstag. Händler in aller Welt sind diese Woche somit auf Überraschungs-Volatilität eingestellt.

Das größte Ereignisrisiko wird die FOMC-Entscheidung am Mittwoch sein und obwohl der, den Ton angebenden Federal Reserve weitaus mehr Gewicht zukommt als anderen Zentralbanken, wird die Fed vermeiden, überraschende Volatilität auszulösen. Es wird erwartungsgemäß keine Änderung der Zinssätze geben, aber ausschlaggebend für potenziell große Bewegungen am Markt könnten das Tempo des Tapers und der Zeitplan für Zinserhöhungen sein. FOMC Vertreter haben kürzlich angesichts der erhöhten Inflation (der VPI Bericht zeigte letzten Freitag den höchsten Stand seit fast 40 Jahren), des robusten Wirtschaftswachstums und der sich verbessernden Arbeitsmarktbedingungen eine vermehrt falkenhafte Tendenz ihrer politischen Haltung signalisiert. Marktakteure spekulieren daher bereits schon über zwei volle Zinserhöhungen in 2022. Auch wenn die Fed Vertreter etwas hawkischer geworden sind, kann die Fed den restriktiveren Erwartungen des Marktes möglicherweise nicht gerecht werden. Händler sollten daher auf Enttäuschungen und einen möglichen U.S. Dollar Rückgang vorbereitet sein.

Bank von England Zinserhöhung unwahrscheinlich

Die Risiken bleiben für das britische Pfund derweil noch abwärtsgerichtet obwohl der Markt am Donnerstag immer noch eine 42-prozentige Chance auf eine Zinserhöhung um 15 Basispunkte sieht. Allerdings wird erwartet, dass die BoE dieses Mal die Zinsen aufgrund der neu unsicheren Wirtschaftsaussichten nicht anhebt. Darüber hinaus wird die BoE mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit die Zinsen in Monaten anheben, in denen sie auch Prognosen und eine Pressekonferenz abgibt, auf der sie die Entscheidung der Öffentlichkeit erläutern kann. Der nächste davon wird im Februar sein. Wir denken jedoch daran, dass die Währungshüter davor gewarnt haben, dass die Folgen bei späteren Zinserhöhungen schwerwiegender sein könnten. Mit anderen Worten, müssten die BoE Währungshüter möglicherweise die Zinsen stärker anheben, als die Märkte derzeit erwarten, um den Inflationsdruck zu mildern.

GBP/USD Technischer Ausblick: Chancen auf eine Umkehr

Angesichts der überverkauften Situation des Pfunds in längeren Zeiträumen könnten wir uns nun dem Höhepunkt der Baisse nähern und eventuell eine Umkehr in Richtung 1.35 sehen. Solange sich der Cable oberhalb von 1.3150 und 1.31 hält, könnten Bullen an Kontrolle in diesem Paar zurückgewinnen.

Euro Trader sind gut beraten, sich bis Donnerstag zurückzuhalten

Die Sitzung der Europäischen Zentralbank am Donnerstag ist schwer vorherzusagen, da es zu einem internen Kampf zwischen Falken und Tauben kommen könnte. Der taubenhafte Kern des EZB-Rates wird eine vorzeitige Straffung vermeiden wollen, während eine zu hohe Inflation und kurzfristige Aufwärtsrisiken die Aufhebung der geldpolitischen Unterstützung der EZB rechtfertigen könnten. Solange jedoch keine Zinserhöhung in Sicht ist, könnte der Euro gegenüber anderen Gegenspielern nach unten tendieren.

EUR/USD Technischer Ausblick: Warten auf eine Bestätigung der Bärenflagge

In längeren Zeiträumen formatierte der Euro eine potenzielle Bärenflagge (grüne Trendkanallinien) innerhalb des jüngsten Abwärtstrends. Sollte das Paar nun einen Wochenschluss unter 1.1250 haben, könnten wir eine Bestätigung der Bärenflagge haben, wobei sich dann der Fokus auf niedrigere Ziele bei 1.11 und 1.10 verlagert. Für einen bullischen Ausbruch auf der anderen Seite müssten wir einen signifikanten Ausbruch über 1.1450 sehen. Solange der Euro zwischen 1.1450 und 1.1250 gehandelt wird, werden wir eine abwartende Haltung beibehalten.

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Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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Focus on U.S. CPI – Daily Signals

Today we will have the U.S. Consumer Price update due at 13:30 UTC and there is serious speculation surrounding this event. The bias is hawkish and thus, in favor of the U.S. dollar but if data falls short of expectations, this disappointment would imply a greater potential and could thus generate a short squeeze in dollar positions. In other words, a meaningful move is more likely on a disappointment than a hawkish confirmation.

We wish everyone good trades and a beautiful weekend!

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1310

Short @ 1.1275

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3265

Short @ 1.3210

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 15660

Short @ 15520

ETH/USD

Long @ 4210

Short @ 4030

 

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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British Pound Depreciates After Fresh Restrictions

Wednesday’s worst performer was the British pound which fell to an annual low after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson tightened pandemic rules. Traders were able to profit with our short entry at 1.3230. If GBP/USD is unable to stabilize above 1.3250, we expect at least a test of 1.3150. Falling below 1.3140 will shift the focus to the lower crucial 1.30-mark.

Traders should brace for heightened volatility in the next days as we have tomorrow’s U.S. consumer inflation numbers on tab followed by a crucial Federal Reserve meeting next week.

The EUR/USD recovered some of its recent losses after the 1.1230-zone proved to hold as a support. The pair now faces a crucial resistance area between 1.1370 and 1.1430 that could attract sellers.

 

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Try out our new signals for cryptocurrencies:

ETH/USD

Long @ 4390

Short @ 4340

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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