The biggest story in the market on Thursday was the British pound which experienced a roller coaster ride. The GBP/USD initially dropped to a low of 1.3121 from where a sharp reversal started, quickly pushing the pound towards 1.33. The reason for the sharp price rise was a report, saying that Europe’s top negotiator may offer the U.K. a two-year Brexit transition period to stay in the single market. Any signs in favor of a soft Brexit are generally positive for the pound, while a hard Brexit is seen as the worst scenario for the U.K. economy. Until only recently the official line had been that there was no major progress in the Brexit discussions.
While Brexit remains the main driver of the pound, traders should keep an eye on the technical picture. GBP/USD is still below 1.33 and once that hurdle is significantly taken out, we could see the pound further rising towards 1.3350 and 1.3450. Sterling bears should however wait for prices below 1.3150.
The euro traded range-bound between 1.1870 and 1.1825. ECB President Draghi’s speech failed to have an impact on the euro’s price action. We now expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.1930 and 1.1830. Sellers should keep an eye on prices below 1.1780 that could lead to further losses towards 1.1730.
Most attention will be paid to the U.S. Consumer Price Report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC today. Around the release time of this report we expect higher volatility in all USD crosses.
We wish you good trades and a wonderful weekend.
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