Profitable Trading Day For Sterling Bears

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Dear Traders,

What a trading day – at least for sterling traders that sold pounds on the initial exit polls. Before we start to explain the reason for sterling’s knee-jerk decline let us allow to be enthusiastic about our short trade which has hit the profit target of 140 pips within less than one minute after initial results showed the U.K. faces a hung parliament. We hope that many of you were also able to capture the profitable downward move in the GBP/USD, even though some orders may have got triggered a few pips lower due to high slippage.

In sum, the U.K. vote is a disaster for Theresa May as the ruling Conservative Party is falling short of an overall majority. A hung parliament is considered a nightmare scenario for sterling investors as the U.K.’s course and Brexit path are much more uncertain now. We remember that Prime Minister Theresa May has called this snap election to win a comfortable majority but the opposite happened: the Conservatives are losing seats instead of winning seats. Consequently, May lost her bet. She will now need to resign or try to form a new government.

The pound dropped as much as 2.5 percent on the new round of political uncertainty. The 1.27-level served as a short-term support but if the pound drops below 1.2690 we could see further losses towards 1.26 and 1.24. If the pound climbs back above 1.28, we expect a resistance to come in at 1.2850 and 1.29.

The ECB decision and testimony from former FBI director Comey did little to impact the price action in the euro and U.S. dollar. The EUR/USD traded slightly lower on Comey’s testimony but remained within a narrow trading range between 1.1265 and 1.1180. As long as the euro remains confined to a sideways range of 1.1285 – 1.1150, there is nothing new to report.

With no major risk events being on tap today, the price action could be muted.

Have a good weekend and remember to secure your weekly profits.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Euro And Pound Resume Uptrend

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Dear Traders,

The British pound traded higher against the greenback in the run-up to Thursday’s U.K. election. A recent poll has suggested that Theresa May’s Conservatives may still maintain a lead over the Labour Party. The GBP/USD broke significantly above 1.29 and headed towards 1.2950. We expect a next resistance to come in between 1.2985 – 1.2950. For the pound to rally, it would require a renewed break above 1.30. A current support is however seen at 1.2885.

The EUR/USD found support at 1.1235, so yesterday’s downswing might be considered a normal correction within the recent uptrend of the currency pair. If the euro falls below 1.12 we could see a steeper decline towards 1.1160/40. On the topside, we anticipate next hurdles at 1.1320 and 1.1360.

There are no major economic data reports scheduled for release today, so the market activity could be subdued.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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British Pound Virtually Unchanged Ahead Of U.K. Election

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Dear Traders,

The British pound gapped slightly lower after the latest terror incident in London, in which seven people were killed and 48 were injured. The attack comes just days before the June 8 general U.K. election which is considered a big event for sterling traders. The latest polls indicate the Conservatives’ lead over Labour has shrunk to between 1 and 12 percentage points, indicating a tightening race. If Prime Minister Theresa May is not getting the increased majority she is hoping for, sterling could suffer further losses.

Friday’s NFP report proved disappointing even if the May jobs data were not bad enough to curtail the expectations for a Fed rate hike this month. While the U.S. dollar remained under selling pressure, the euro benefited the most from the greenback’s weakness and rose to a high of 1.1285. It will now be interesting whether the euro is able to tackle the hurdle at 1.13. Above that level, we see a next resistance at 1.1350, whereas the 1.12-level could lend a short-term support for the euro.

GBP/USD

In short-term time frames we see that prices narrowed, formatting a symmetrical triangle which could predict upcoming price breakouts. A break above 1.2910 could result in an upswing towards 1.2950 while a decline below 1.2850 could drive the pound lower towards 1.28.

This week’s economic calendar is fairly light in terms of market moving data. The only highlight will be the U.K. election and the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday which can be market moving events.

The service-sector ISM survey is scheduled for release today at 14:00 UTC but with the NFP report behind us, this report might not attract much attention.

In short, it could be a quiet start to the new week but let us be surprised.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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All Eyes On NFP Data

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Dear Traders,

It is U.S. jobs day and the May Nonfarm Payrolls report is considered the top event risk this week as it could generate big swings for the U.S. dollar. The greenback’s performance was only modestly affected by yesterday’s solid ADP report and a strong ISM manufacturing report, so traders hope for more profitable swings today. The expectation is for 180K jobs to have been added in May and while a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting on June 13 and 14 is widely expected, investors will read between the lines to assess the economic environment in the U.S. The dollar has been weak throughout the month of May and dollar bulls need a good reason in order to reinvest into the dollar trade.

The first trading day of June has been a challenging one for sterling traders as the cable traded choppily sideways, triggering and eliminating pending orders easily. We hope for more profitable trading opportunities today.

The euro refrained from falling below the 1.12-mark and hold steadily above that threshold. In case of a dip below 1.1190 we will once again shift our focus to the 1.1160-support. Lower barriers are seen at 1.11/1.1080 and 1.10 whereas any upward movements above 1.1265 could be limited to a high of 1.1350.

The Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC today.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

British Pound Reacts With High Volatility To Opinion Polls

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Dear Traders,

The pound sterling is reacting with high volatility to fresh opinion polls ahead of the June 8 U.K. general election. After rallying towards 1.29, the pound dropped sharply as a poll showed Theresa May’s Conservative Party may miss a majority. With sterling’s direction being determined by opinion polls, the technical outlook currently seems to recede into the background. For sterling traders, Tuesday has been a profitable trading day with our long entry hitting the profit target exactly before the pound reversed towards lower levels. If the GBP/USD drops below 1.2790 there could be a next barrier at 1.2750 which needs to be significantly broken in order to spark fresh bearish momentum.  On the topside, we still expect a crucial resistance at 1.2980.

For euro traders, the upward trend proved successful with the euro testing the 1.12-mark. From a technical perspective, the euro seems to be formatting a downward channel with the lower barrier currently coming in around 1.11 while the upper barrier, which is currently seen at 1.12, may limit near-term gains in the EUR/USD.

The euro-area’s preliminary headline inflation rate will be released today at 9:00 UTC and the euro might come under some selling pressure ahead of this report as economists forecast a slightly lower reading.

From the U.S., we have Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and the Fed’s Beige Book at 18:00 UTC scheduled for release.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Euro And Cable Fall In Thin Trading

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Dear Traders,

Trading was quiet on Monday with the euro and cable trading within tight trading ranges. Only at the end of the trading day, prices gathered momentum. The euro fell in thin trading below 1.1160 and headed towards 1.11. The cable dipped slightly below 1.28 but was able to hold above that support level. We now expect the 1.2760-level to lend some short-term support to the pound. Above 1.2865 however, the pound could head for a test of 1.2950/60.

EUR/USD

The euro broke below the 1.1160-support and as a result, bearish momentum accelerated. The euro might tend to test the 1.11-threshold before we see a reversal. On the upside we see a resistance at 1.1170 until which potential gains could be limited while on the bottom side, a crucial support area is currently seen at around 1.1080.

Important economic data for today:

12:00 EUR German Consumer Price

12:30 USA PCE Report

14:00 USA Consumer Confidence

(Time zone: UTC)

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Pound Slides On Narrowing U.K. Polls

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Dear Traders,

The British pound came under increased selling pressure this morning after a poll showed U.K. Prime Minster Theresa May is losing ground ahead of next month’s election. Recently, the gap between Conservatives and Labour has narrowed, putting May’s Conservatives on 43 percent with Labour on 38 percent. The U.K. general election is scheduled to take place on 8 June 2017.

GBP/USD

The pound depreciated against the U.S. dollar and slid towards 1.2865. From a technical perspective, the cable broke below the recent uptrend channel but may find some halt around 1.2850 now. Below 1.2830 however, it could extend its slide towards the crucial support area between 1.2780 – 1.2750. On the topside, we see current resistances at 1.2980 and 1.3080.

The euro traded little changed on Thursday and remained within a small trading range between 1.1250 – 1.1185. We will pay attention to a sustained break below 1.1160, a level that proved to be an important support in short-term time frames. On the upside, any bullish movements might be limited until 1.1240.

Traders will be watching the U.S. GDP data release at 12:30 UTC. The GDP report is considered a high importance event for dollar traders and in case of any disappointment the greenback may struggle to find a bottom.

We wish you good trades for today and a beautiful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Euro And Cable Remain Above Crucial Support Levels

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Dear Traders,

The FOMC minutes failed to provide fresh hawkish evidence dollar bulls had hoped for and at the end of the trading day, there was nothing to gain. While the minutes confirmed the likelihood of a June rate hike, they have been casting doubts over the future trajectory for rate increases. Fed policy makers stated that they wanted more evidence that the recent economic slowdown is in fact transitory. Consequently, these statements were interpreted as slightly more dovish due to the lack of certainty to the policy pace. Following the disappointing minutes, the U.S. dollar gave up previous gains and pushed the euro and pound again higher in return.

The EUR/USD finally rose towards its recent resistance area around 1.1260. Once the 1.1270-level is broken to the upside the euro could climb towards 1.13 and 1.1350. On the bottom side, the 1.1160-support remains intact. There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today, so trading might be quiet.

The GBP/USD traded stable above 1.29 and every attempt to sell the pair below 1.2950 proved unsuccessful. Above 1.30 the pound may tend towards a renewed test of the 1.3040-resistance. A break of that level could result in a rise towards 1.3080. U.K. GDP figures are due for release at 8:30 UTC and if there is a surprise, the pound could react with a volatile price action.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Euro Strength: No End In Sight, Next Target 1.13?

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Dear Traders,

The euro further advanced against the U.S. dollar after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the euro is “too weak” because of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Her statement gave traders yet another reason to buy euros towards the next resistance level at 1.13. Speaking of euro strength, an end to the rally is not yet in sight and if the euro overcomes the 1.13-reistance significantly, we may see a run for 1.1420/50. A current support is however seen at around 1.1215, followed by a stronger support zone near 1.1170.

The German PMI report is scheduled for release at 7:30 UTC, followed by the German IFO Index 30 minutes later. However, none of these reports is expected to have a significant impact on the euro’s price action.

The British pound failed to make significant progress above the 1.30 level, whereas, on the other side, it was little affected by a terrorist attack at a concert in Manchester in which 22 people were killed. The pound traded resiliently between 1.3050 and 1.2965 and as long as it remains firmly above 1.29 we do not see any major downside risks. On the topside, the 1.3065-mark needs to be broken in order to spark fresh bullish momentum.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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No Hope For Dollar Bulls?

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you to a new trading week. Last week ended with a spike high of 1.1212 in the EUR/USD while continuing U.S. dollar weakness remains the dominant market theme. The greenback still struggles to gain ground as political instability fears weigh on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike outlook. Investors fear that political chaos in the Trump administration may derail Trump’s plans for expansionary fiscal policy and thus deter the Fed from raising interest rates.

However, not all hope is lost for dollar bulls and if political uncertainties are abating, shifting the focus back to the administration’s fiscal program, the U.S. dollar could be poised for recovery. In the meantime we will mainly pay attention to the technical outlook in both major currency pairs.

The economic calendar this week is rather light in terms of market moving data. From the U.S., the most interesting pieces of data will be Friday’s GDP figures and Durable Goods Orders following Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes. Upbeat minutes may revive the dollar trade with market participants pricing in a more than 80 percent chance that the Fed will raise rates again in June.

The EUR/USD knew only one direction: upwards. From a technical perspective we now expect a next hurdle to come in around 1.13. Below 1.1070, however, the euro may drops towards a test of the 1.10-support.

The cable remained sideways whilst being accompanied by a slight upward tilt. We now expect the GBP/USD to trade between 1.3060 and 1.29.  A break above 1.3070 may send the pound towards 1.32.

Sterling traders should pay attention to any changes in the U.K. GDP figures, scheduled for release on Thursday.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co