Stock Market Takes A Breather, Euro And Pound Consolidate

The stock market has been taking a breather after the big rally and thus we saw the DAX falling like a stone towards 15100. While this correction was overdue after the latest gains, it will be interesting whether the 15000-support (red dashed line) will hold. If the index drops significantly below that support barrier, we see a lower support zone between 14800 and 14600. Bulls who want to go for 16000 could raise hopes after a break above 15550.

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD finally refrained from extending their gains towards higher targets and consolidated Tuesday.

GBP/USD: The cable reversed after a test of 1.40 failed to ignite further gains. While the outlook remains bullish in this pair, we might see a deeper correction towards 1.3870 and possibly even 1.38 before bullish momentum accelerates again.

EUR/USD

Looking at shorter time frames (hourly chart) we see a head-shoulders pattern suggesting upcoming bearish momentum in case of a break below 1.2015 (red neckline). If 1.20 breaks, we will focus on lower prices between 1.1985 and 1.1950 (rectangle) that could attract more buyers in this pair. This short-term pattern becomes however void with an upside break of 1.2050.

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Bulls Profit In Euro And Sterling Rallies

Instead of extending its correction towards 1.19 against the U.S. dollar, the euro jumped above 1.20 and headed quickly towards 1.2050. And the rally continues this morning with the euro soaring towards the higher target at 1.21 but we advise caution. The EUR/USD is in overbought territory and thus vulnerable for pullbacks, so do not get your fingers burnt.

The situation wasn’t any different in the GBP/USD which rallied towards 1.40. Stabilizing above 1.4020, we see a next higher target at 1.42 but here, too, the overbought situation calls for caution.

Those who wonder why the U.S. dollar came under increased selling pressure, it may be told that the market is in a risk-on mode where risky assets outperform havens such as the greenback.

Our long entries in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD have proved profitable and reached their profit targets.

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Week Starts With A Correction, Focus on ECB

The new week began with a correction in the market with the euro giving up some of its recent gains in the early trading hours while elsewhere, crypto investors are waking up with a sore head after the latest ‘peak party’ in the biggest cryptocurrencies.

This week the focus will be on the European Central Bank decision on Thursday. The ECB is expected to keep its policy unchanged but the tone of the press conference may offer some hints on the plans to pare back monetary policy support. However, a full assessment of the pace of asset purchases will not happen until June, so it’s probably too soon for a debate about a policy shift and bond-buying to be tapered.

EUR/USD

After the euro failed to overcome the 1.1995-barrier, we saw the pair correcting its recent gains. We expect further losses towards 1.19 ahead of the ECB decision. If the euro falls below 1.1890, we will turn our focus to a lower support area which ranges from 1.1875 to 1.1835 (orange ellipse). On the upside and ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision, euro bulls could wait for a break above 1.2060 in order to buy euros towards 1.21 and 1.2170.

The pound sterling rebounded against the U.S. dollar as the U.K. economy is building up momentum while restrictions ease further. The Bank of England anticipates a rapid recovery with almost two thirds of adults in the U.K. immunized against the coronavirus.

Taking a look at the technical picture in the GBP/USD we see the pound breaking out of its recent downtrend channel, heading towards 1.3850. Above 1.3850 we focus on a higher target at 1.3915 where we see a short-term resistance for sterling bulls. Above 1.3920 the focus turns to the crucial 1.40 resistance. A short-term support is however seen at 1.3750.

Have a good start to the new week!

 

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Woche beginnt mit Korrektur, Fokus auf EZB

Die neue Woche begann mit einer Korrektur im Markt wobei der Euro einige seiner jüngsten Gewinne in den frühen Morgenstunden abgibt und Krypto Investoren mit Kopfschmerzen aufwachen nach der Party der Rekordstände in den größten Krypto Währungen.

Diese Woche wird der Fokus auf der Entscheidung der Europäischen Zentralbank am Donnerstag liegen. Die EZB wird erwartungsgemäß ihre Geldpolitik unverändert lassen, doch der Ton der Pressekonferenz könnte eventuell Hinweise auf die Pläne zur Drosselung der monetären Unterstützung liefern. Allerdings wird eine umfassende Beurteilung des Tempos der Anlagenkäufe nicht vor Juni passieren, somit ist es jetzt möglicherweise zu früh für eine Debatte über eine Weichenstellung und eine Reduzierung des EZB Kaufprogramms.

EUR/USD

Nachdem der Euro die 1.1995-Barriere nicht überwinden konnte, sahen wir das Paar die jüngsten Gewinne korrigieren. Wir erwarten weitere Verluste in Richtung von 1.19 im Vorfeld der EZB Entscheidung. Sollte der Euro unter 1.1890 abrutschen, so richten wir unseren Fokus auf eine tiefere Unterstützungszone, welche sich von 1.1875 bis 1.1835 erstreckt (orangefarbene Ellipse). Auf der Oberseite und im Vorfeld der Entscheidung am Donnerstag könnten Eurobullen auf einen Ausbruch oberhalb von 1.2060 warten um Euros bis 1.21 und 1.2170 zu kaufen.

Das Pfund Sterling erholte sich gegenüber dem U.S. Dollar während die U.K. Konjunktur an Fahrt gewinnt und die Maßnahmen weiter gelockert werden. Die Bank von England rechnet mit einer rapiden Erholung denn fast zwei Drittel der Erwachsenen im Vereinigten Königreich sind bereits gegen das Coronavirus immunisiert.

Werfen wir einen Blick auf das technische Bild im GBP/USD, so sehen wir, dass das Pfund aus seinem jüngsten Abwärtstrendkanal ausbricht und in Richtung von 1.3850 tendiert. Oberhalb von 1.3850 konzentrieren wir uns auf ein höheres Ziel bei 1.3915, wo wir einen kurzfristigen Widerstand für Sterling Bullen sehen. Oberhalb von 1.3920 richtet sich der Fokus auf den gewichtigen Widerstand bei 1.40. Einen aktuellen Support sehen wir hingegen bei 1.3750.

Wir wünschen einen guten Wochenstart!

 

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Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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Keine Nachfrage im U.S. Dollar

Die U.S. Einzelhandelsumsätze stiegen um 9,8 Prozent im Monat März, was der zweit-höchste Anstieg in Regierungsdaten seit 1992 war. Die starke Lesung kann den staatlichen Zahlungshilfen zugeschrieben werden, welche einen kurzfristigen Ausgabenschub ermöglichen. Der Ausgabenboom könnte sich auch in den kommenden Monaten fortsetzen, denn die Verbraucher sitzen auf einem Berg angehäufter Ersparnisse während sich die Wiedereröffnung der Wirtschaft fortsetzt.

Der U.S. Dollar konnte trotz der starken Einzelhandelsumsätze zu keiner neuen Stärke finden denn die Treasury Renditen sanken.

Wir behalten im Hinterkopf, dass wir uns immer noch in einer Risiko-Umgebung befinden, wo die Erwartungen auf eine starke Erholung die Aktien auf Rekordstände treiben, während Risikoanlagen profitieren. Der anti-Risiko U.S. Dollar, auf der anderen Seite, ist in einer solchen Umgebung nicht gefragt.

EUR/USD- Zeit für eine Korrektur?

Der Euro kannte im April nur eine Richtung, nämlich aufwärts. Nun, wo das Paar eine wichtige Widerstandszone erreicht hat und von einem Bruch oberhalb des 1.20-Levels abließ, inmitten der überkauften Situation, so rechnen wir jetzt mit einer Abwärtsbewegung in Richtung von 1.19. Damit sich der Aufwärtstrend zu einem höheren Widerstand bei 1.21 ausweitet, müssten wir einen nachhaltigen Bruch des 1.2020-Levels sehen.

GBP/USD: Der Cable war wenig verändert und verblieb unterhalb von 1.38 inmitten einer kleinen Schwankungsbreite. Wir erwarten, dass das Paar vorerst zwischen 1.3850 und 1.36 handeln wird. Was die Bärendynamik angeht, so achten wir auf einen Fall unter 1.3720, was zu weiteren Verlusten Richtung 1.3670 und 1.36 führen könnte.

Ein schönes Wochenende allerseits!

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Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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No Love For The U.S. Dollar

U.S. retail sales increased by 9.8 percent in March, which was the second-largest increase in government data back to 1992. The huge monthly sales number can be attributed to federal stimulus payments that provided a temporary spending boost. The consumer spending boom could continue in the months ahead with consumers still sitting on a pile of accumulated savings as the economy continues to reopen.

The U.S. dollar failed to strengthen on the back of strong retail sales as Treasury yields fell.

We bear in mind, that we are still in a risk-on environment where expectations of a strong recovery are pushing equities to record levels while risky assets benefit. The anti-risk U.S. dollar, on the other hand, is not in demand in such environment.

EUR/USD – Finally due for a correction?

The euro knew only one direction in April – upwards. Now that the pair has reached a crucial resistance zone and refrained from a break above 1.20 amid its overbought situation, we expect the price to decline towards 1.19. For the uptrend to continue towards a higher resistance at 1.21, we would need to see a sustained break above 1.2020.

GBP/USD: The cable was little changed and remained below 1.38 in low volatile trading. We expect the pair to trade between 1.3850 and 1.36. As for bearish momentum, if the pound drops below 1.3720 we anticipate further losses towards 1.3670 and 1.36.

Have a nice weekend everyone!

We wish you good trades!

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Daily Forex Signals

Not much has changed in the technical picture since yesterday with the U.S. dollar being little changed after several days of losses.

DAX: While the index dipped below 15200, bearish momentum was not sustained with the DAX hovering around the 15200-mark.

Let’s see what today brings. We will have U.S. Retail Sales scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC, a report that could increase volatility in USD crosses.

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EUR/USD

Long @ 1.2015

Short @ 1.1965

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3810

Short @ 1.3735

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 15240

Short @ 15190

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Investors Shrug Off Rise in U.S. Inflation

U.S. Consumer prices rose more than expected but the slightly higher reading was not enough to push the U.S. dollar higher as investors speculated the rise in inflation was not enough to lead to a change in the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Moreover, a lot of recovery and inflation have already priced into the market with higher taxes now becoming a bigger risk than the pandemic.

The best performer was the euro which rose against the greenback with the EUR/USD trading around 1.1965 this morning, entering a crucial resistance zone. We expect further gains until 1.1980 and possibly even a test of 1.20 before more sellers show up. A higher support is now seen at 1.1890.

The GBP/USD resumed its upward trend after a dip below 1.37 proved short-lived. We see a next bullish target at 1.3840 but recommend sterling bulls to wait for a sustained break above 1.3850 and more importantly above 1.3920 to expect further gains until 1.40 and 1.42. On the downside, the 1.36-support remains in focus.

The DAX continued its consolidation and as long as there is no breakout either above 15300 or below 15200 there is nothing new to report.

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Profitable Weekly Start – More Gains In Store?

It has been a profitable start to the new week with Sterling trading sharply higher against the U.S. dollar and the DAX steadying above 15200.

GBP/USD: The cable rose to a high of 1.3777 and provided shot-term bulls a good gain. Another break above 1.3775 could now lead to a test of 1.38 and further 1.3835. Below 1.3720 however, sterling could give up gains towards 1.3680. Bears in this pair should wait for a third test of 1.3670 which could consequently result in a clear break and steeper losses towards 1.36.

DAX: Volatility remains at muted levels with the index ranging in narrow price spans between 15280 and 15180. We generally favor the uptrend with a next higher target at 15850 but traders should also brace for potential corrections towards 15000 (blue rectangle). The 15000-zone could be a tempting entry area for bulls.

EUR/USD: The euro traded in a narrow price range and we will wait for a renewed break above 1.1920 in order to anticipate higher targets between 1.1970 and 1.1990. A bearish break below 1.1860 however, could drive the pair lower towards 1.1830.

Today we will have the U.S. CPI report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC and if there is a strong upside surprise, the U.S. dollar will rise.

We wish you good trades!

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Oversold Pound Sterling Could Rebound

Welcome to a new trading week.

Euro bulls took a breather on Friday after the shared currency had the best week against the U.S. dollar so far this year. While the U.S. and Asia are already on a solid recovery path, there is a belief that Europe will be successful in immunizing the major part of its population within few months.

While Europe’s vaccine campaign might be getting back on track, giving reason for optimism, the EU’s recovery is still on shaky ground.

EUR/USD

Looking at the weekly chart we remember that the euro could be formatting a huge head-shoulders-pattern, giving that the resistance levels at 1.20 and 1.21 remain unbroken. In other words, if euro bulls are unable to overcome the 1.21-barrier the focus will remain on a break below 1.16 which could result in steep losses towards 1.12.

The British pound experienced a sell-off last week on the back of concerns relating to AstraZeneca Plc’s shot, which the U.K. is heavily dependent on. Hedge funds unwound bullish positions in the pound. Despite the latest correction, April is historically a supportive month for the pound and giving the potential strength of the U.K.’s recovery there is room for a resumption of the pound’s overall uptrend.

GBP/USD

Looking at longer time frames we see the pair reaching oversold territory, increasing the chances for a rebound. We see two crucial support zones which could limit bearish momentum in the currency pair. If 1.3670 breaks significantly, the next crucial support is seen at 1.36 from where bullish momentum can accelerate. Based on the short-term downtrend channel the next support would be at around 1.3520 but giving the oversold situation we anticipate earlier gains and will pay attention to a break of the lower resistance at 1.3850.

This week the focus will be on the U.S. CPI report Tuesday while Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could reiterate its dovish rhetoric during his moderated Q&A on Wednesday.

We wish you good trades!

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