ECB Decision: Euro’s Outlook Remains Neutral
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony has caused some volatility through the market and the U.S. dollar weakened on the back of falling U.S. Treasury rates. The reason for the downward tilt in the greenback was merely that there was nothing new to report, even though Powell’s remarks leaned towards the hawkish side.
Tomorrow’s NFP report could however surprise and if U.S. labor market data come in stronger-than-expected, it could trigger a shift in market pricing and thus, an upward move in the U.S. dollar.
Today, the European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting. Investors will however closely monitor ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conferences following the decision. Lagarde is expected to embrace a neutral stance, even though disappointing growth data in the EU may argue for a more dovish stance. Any signals about potential earlier rate cuts would weigh on the euro, whereas a delay of any potential easing measures could spark a hawkish repricing and thus, strengthen the euro.
The ECB’s decision is due at 13:15 UTC, followed by the press conference 30 minutes later.
EUR/USD – Still Sideways
Despite its recent upward tick, the currency pair still finds itself below 1.10 (blue EMA) and therefore still sideways. In order to speak of an upside breakout of the recent sideways range we would need to see a rise above 1.1050. As long as the pair remains between 1.07 and 1.10, the outlook is neutral.
GBP/USD – Struggling With Resistances
The cable is struggling to overcome a resistance at around 1.2750. We recommend traders to wait for a sustained upside break above 1.28 (red ellipse) to engage in an upside swing. On the downside, the 1.2550-area (orange EMA) could act as a support.
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