The U.S. dollar advanced against its major peers Monday after hawkish comments from Federal Reserve President Dudley provided some relief for dollar bulls. The EUR/USD fell to a low of 1.1140 but refrained from testing the lower 1.11-support level, at least for the time being. Unfortunately, we had to record one false breakout with our long entry at 1.1210 before the downward movement has finally proved profitable. Given the current low-volatility environment, we expect the EUR/USD to remain confined to a range between 1.1230 and 1.11. If the pair dips below 1.11 we could see further losses towards 1.1030. A sustained break above 1.12, however, could send the pair higher towards 1.1280.
The GBP/USD traded sideways while a break above 1.2810 proved only short-lived. Sterling traders will watch Bank of England governor Carney’s speech today at 7:30 UTC. If Carney touches on monetary policy the pound could be vulnerable to some volatile swings. We bear in mind that U.K. inflation has increased above the BoE’s 2 percent goal putting pressure on policymakers to reduce some of the central bank’s stimulus. If Carney begins to express a hawkish stance the pound could rise. Technically we are now waiting for price breakouts either above 1.2820 or below 1.2720.
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