Euro Consolidates Pre-ECB While Pound Declines On Brexit Uncertainty

Dear Traders,

The EUR/USD is still consolidating within a narrow trading range as it waits for the ECB announcement to encourage volatility. Tomorrow’s ECB announcement is expected to bring a cut of the central bank’s monthly purchases to EUR30B but there is speculation that ECB policy makers may favour a dovish taper in the effort of keeping the euro relatively weak. Traders should prepare for more volatile swings now ahead of tomorrow’s highly anticipated event. However, with no new drivers we still expect the EUR/USD to fluctuate between 1.1850 and 1.17.

Sellers in the GBP/USD were able to gain a good profit yesterday with the pound heading for 1.31. The pound declined amid uncertainty around Brexit negotiations between the UK and EU and while the tortuous Brexit talks are continuing to sour the sentiment in the pound, there is a ray of hope – at least in short-term time frames: UK GDP figures (due for release today at 8:30 UTC) are expected to show an economic growth of 1.5 percent year/year that is likely to persuade the Bank of England to hike interest rates at the BoE’s ‘Super Thursday’ next week on November 2.

From a technical perspective, we still see the GBP/USD fluctuating within its crucial price range of 1.32/1.3230 – 1.31. While sustained price breakouts did not happen we still focus on both scenarios; either a bullish breakout above 1.3235 or a bearish breakout below 1.3085.

From the U.S. we have Durable Goods Orders scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

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