Positive developments in Washington and hopes that the U.S. tax reform bill could pass the House have been supportive for the U.S. dollar. The greenback advanced against the euro and British pound, driving both EUR/USD and GBP/USD towards important support levels. The U.S. Senate adopted a fiscal 2018 budget resolution on Thursday that House GOP leaders agreed to accept.
On the flipside, the euro received no support from political developments in Spain. Madrid is finalizing plans to take control of Catalonia and to suspend the region’s autonomy. This step should keep the political situation in Spain tense.
The pound fell on disappointing U.K. data and speculation that the upcoming Bank of England rate hike could be a one-off. The BoE is forecast to hike rates on their next monetary policy meeting on November 2 but analysts doubt that there could be more than one rate increase in the medium-term. For the time being, we expect the pound to trade with volatile swings between 1.3250 and 1.30. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, for bearish momentum to accelerate the pound will have to break the 1.31-support significantly.
EUR/USD: As expected, the resistance level at 1.1850/60 has proved correct and the euro tested this barrier before reversing some of its gains. We now expect the pair to trade lower and focus on targets at 1.1770 and 1.17.
There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to hold a speech today but since this speech is only due after markets close, it will not affect the price action.
We wish you good trades and a nice weekend.
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