Inflation Data To Determine Direction

Dear Traders,

Sterling traders had to bite the bullet and watch the cable’s profitable upward swing without being invested in the pound after our second buy attempt failed to provide any profits. Consequently, we are still in the red this month but we are confident that losses will be compensated as we consistently stay on the ball and remain disciplined.

The British pound rose towards 1.45 as Brexit fears are easing. A poll of U.K. voters showed 55 percent were in favor of the remain camp, while a minority of 40 percent wanted to leave the EU. Furthermore, sterling traders await the the U.K. Consumer Prices report, scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and chances are that the inflation report is more upbeat. In case of better inflation figures, we might see the pound extending its gains towards 1.4520 and 1.4540. Above 1.4570, the currency pair could even head for a test of 1.4630. If U.K. inflation numbers fail to impress, the focus shifts to the U.S. CPI data. Below 1.4380 we expect sterling to drift lower towards 1.4340 and 1.43.

The euro ended the day unchanged against the U.S. dollar and traders must be patient and wait for an increase in volatility in order to benefit sustainably. Today’s price development will be mainly determined by the dollar’s performance and its response to the U.S. Inflation numbers, scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. An increase in CPI data could revive the dollar’s strength and drive the pair towards 1.1250 and 1.1220. On the upside, we focus on a break above 1.1365, which may result in an upswing towards 1.14 and 1.1435.

Apart from important inflation data, some Fed officials are scheduled to speak today at 16:00 UTC, which could have a short-term impact on the dollar.

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