Following the FOMC minutes, nothing has actually happened in the market and it appears that market participants have completely ignored the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the upcoming meeting. The minutes showed that Fed officials see a hike ‘fairly soon’, confirming the hawkish bias while nothing in that report directly suggested that a March hike is off the table. The market however, has interpreted the minutes to be less hawkish as Fed policy makers expressed confidence they can take their time raising interest rates as there is little risk of an overshooting of inflation.
In summary, yesterday was none of our favorite trading days as we have hoped for larger market movements and more profitable swings.
The euro bounced off the 1.0490-support and recovered some losses after the U.S. dollar failed to gain strength from the minutes. We now expect the EUR/USD to trade within a range of 1.0615 and 1.0450.
The technical picture in the GBP/USD remained virtually unchanged with the pound continuing to trade sideways. The risk is however tilted to the downside and if the pound drops back below 1.2425 we see a higher possibility of upcoming bearish momentum towards 1.2385 and 1.2350. On the upside, we will wait for a significant break above 1.25 in order to shift the focus towards higher price levels.
There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today and thus the price action could hinge on the appetite for USD. Given the fact that the Fed is currently the only central bank that is on track to raise rates, we generally expect further strength in greenback.
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