The FOMC minutes have turned out to be a non-event for traders and failed to lift the U.S. dollar. While the Federal Reserve referenced the hawkish shift in its QE plans, the FOMC was split on the timing for their balance sheet reduction. Moreover, there were some inflation concerns in the statement while Fed officials continued to view gradual interest rate increases as appropriate. With the mixed tone from the minutes, the market’s reaction was muted.
The U.S. dollar neither declined significantly nor did it recover following the minutes. We hope for better trading opportunities today with the ISM service sector and private ADP report scheduled for release. While most attention will be paid to tomorrow’s NFP data, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, due at 14:00 UTC could spark some volatile movements ahead of the U.S. Labor report. Before, the ADP employment change report is due for release at 12:15 UTC.
Recent downward trend channel is still intact within an overall uptrend. The euro was recently confined to a narrow trading range between 1.1370 and 1.1310. With the pair remaining below 1.1350 we expect it to follow the downward channel towards 1.1285. If the euro breaks however above 1.1360 we could see another leg upwards, pointing towards 1.15.
The performance of the GBP/USD was muted with the pair trading more or less sideways between 1.2950 and 1.2890. We will keep an eye on prices either above 1.2960 or below 1.2890.
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