We welcome you to a new trading week. Last week ended with a spike high of 1.1212 in the EUR/USD while continuing U.S. dollar weakness remains the dominant market theme. The greenback still struggles to gain ground as political instability fears weigh on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike outlook. Investors fear that political chaos in the Trump administration may derail Trump’s plans for expansionary fiscal policy and thus deter the Fed from raising interest rates.
However, not all hope is lost for dollar bulls and if political uncertainties are abating, shifting the focus back to the administration’s fiscal program, the U.S. dollar could be poised for recovery. In the meantime we will mainly pay attention to the technical outlook in both major currency pairs.
The economic calendar this week is rather light in terms of market moving data. From the U.S., the most interesting pieces of data will be Friday’s GDP figures and Durable Goods Orders following Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes. Upbeat minutes may revive the dollar trade with market participants pricing in a more than 80 percent chance that the Fed will raise rates again in June.
The EUR/USD knew only one direction: upwards. From a technical perspective we now expect a next hurdle to come in around 1.13. Below 1.1070, however, the euro may drops towards a test of the 1.10-support.
The cable remained sideways whilst being accompanied by a slight upward tilt. We now expect the GBP/USD to trade between 1.3060 and 1.29. A break above 1.3070 may send the pound towards 1.32.
Sterling traders should pay attention to any changes in the U.K. GDP figures, scheduled for release on Thursday.
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