Pivotal Week
Welcome to a new and pivotal trading week.
Markets started this new week relatively unimpressed after another assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump at his Florida golf course. Trump was unharmed while the suspect is in custody.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years by at least 25 basis points. Investors are however focused on what will happen after the FOMC announcement
There is now growing anticipation for more aggressive rate cuts later in the year and early 2025, especially after a Fed official floated the idea of “front-loading” cuts. But with US data weakening, crude oil prices falling, and the Fed turning dovish, the EUR/USD currency pair forecast remains moderately bullish unless we see other major surprises.
The Bank of England is also due to decide on monetary policy this Thursday but it is expected to stand pat for now.
EUR/USD: The euro remains captured between 1.11 and 1.10 for now. A break above 1.1110 could prompt bulls for a test of 1.1150 but price action might remain sluggish until Wednesday evening.
GBP/USD: We expect the pair to remain trading between 1.32 and 1.30 in short-term time frames. Above 1.3210, bulls may push for a test of 1.33.
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