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Sentiment Remains Unchanged, Focus On ADP Report

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Going into Wednesday and looking at the technical picture, not much has changed.

Bulls in the GBP/USD still face the 1.3650-hurdle. We continue to watch out for a break above 1.3670-80 in order to anticipate further gains towards 1.3750 and 1.3850. On the downside, a renewed break below 1.3570 could see a continuation of the cable’s steeper decline targeting at 1.34.

The EUR/USD remained trading in a very narrow range between 1.1615 and 1.1580. Buyers should keep watching out for a sustained break above 1.1610 now with a next bullish target at 1.1670. A break below 1.1580 on the other side could increase chances for accelerated bearish momentum.

The DAX remained below 15200 but as well above the psychologically important 15000-mark. A break below 14950 could see a dip towards 14900 whereas a rise above 15300 may prompt bulls for a test of 15500.

Traders are awaiting the U.S. labor market data on Friday and today’s ADP Nonfarm Employment Change scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC may provide a foretaste of what to expect from Friday’s report.

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EUR/USD And GBP/USD Continue Upward Trend

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Buyers in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD were able to profit Wednesday with the euro and cable continuing their recent upward movements on weaker than expected ADP data, which is as a foretaste of NFP job numbers tomorrow. Both of our long entries have thus proved profitable.

EUR/USD

The pair formatted a short-term upward channel that now ranges from 1.1790 to 1.1875. We continue to see an important resistance area between 1.1880-1.1920. On the bottom side, we will keep an eye on a break below 1.1790 which could lead to a fall towards 1.1735 and 1.17.

GBP/USD

We expect the pair to trade between 1.3820 and 1.3730. A break below 1.3725 could spur bearish momentum towards 1.3650. Sterling bulls on the topside could wait for a break above 1.3830 in order to anticipate higher targets at around 1.3880.

 

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Watch Out For Higher Volatility Today

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Dear Traders,

As expected, there wasn’t much volatility in the Forex market Wednesday with the euro and pound remaining within narrow price ranges. The GBP/USD was able to stabilize above 1.32 following an upbeat U.K. Services PMI report but the pair rejected the 1.3250-hurdle, at least for now. Generally speaking, the medium-term outlook for the pound is still bullish as market participants prepare for a potential rate hike in August. Odds for an August rate hike are currently at 53 percent.

BoE Governor Carney speaks in Newcastle today at 10:00 UTC and any comments on monetary policy could get the pound moving.

The euro appears to lose some of its downside momentum while we see a higher likelihood of an imminent break above 1.1690 and possibly even 1.1720 in the short-term. The euro’s slight upward bias was also backed by reports that some ECB members are seeing a rate hike in late 2019 as ‘too late’.

From the U.S. we have the ADP report, scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC, followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing index at 14:00 UTC.

Last but not least, we will pay attention to the FOMC meeting minutes due at 18:00 UTC, which are expected to have a positive tone. If the minutes signal further steepening in the appropriate policy path, the dollar could receive some fresh boost.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Risk Aversion Leads To EUR And GBP Sell-Off

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Dear Traders,

The fragility of the European Union is back in the spotlight and there seems to be nothing that could stop the euro from falling. The euro broke below crucial support levels against the U.S. dollar and fell to the weakest level in ten months. Whether the euro will extend its tailspin towards 1.1420 or even 1.1350 remains to be seen and hinges on the risk aversion in the market. As soon as risk aversion gives way to a greater risk appetite, the euro may find the strength to recover some of its losses.

The same applied to the British pound, which fell victim to increased risk aversion in the market and dropped towards $1.32. As long as the cable remains below 1.33 we focus on a lower target at 1.3180/70. On the topside, we see a current resistance at 1.3350. For sterling bears, Tuesday has been a very profitable trading day with our short signal providing twice a good profit.

The focus now turns to U.S. data such as the GDP report, scheduled for release today at 12:30 UTC. Greater attention, however, will be paid to the U.S. NFP report Friday. Today’s ADP Employment Change (12:15 UTC) could provide a foretaste of what to expect on Friday.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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FOMC To Provide An Excuse For Profit-Taking On Dollar Long Positions?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar showed no signs of weakness and extended its gains versus other major peers Tuesday. Thus, short traders in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD were once again able to book a good profit.

Having just warned in our analysis from Monday that signs could point to a bearish breakout, that break below crucial key levels in both of our major currency pairs came faster than we had expected. Despite the oversold situation in many major pairs and the need for consolidation, the U.S. dollar continued its bullish bias for the 9th trading day pushing its counterparts even lower. While the greenback’s linear rise is surprising, many traders wonder how long this dollar move will last. However, we continue to warn traders of profit-taking and potential pullbacks.

The market focus will now turn to the Federal Reserve meeting and FOMC rate decision today at 18:00 UTC.  The expectation for any change in monetary policy is very low at this meeting with no updated forecasts and no press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. However, the meeting should be a runway for another rate hike in June and if Fed policy makers don’t commit to rate increase next month the dollar will quickly fall as market participants are positioned for hawkishness from the Fed.

Investors will closely watch for whether the Fed makes more explicit its intention to raise rates three more times this year, for a total of four hikes in 2018.

In a nutshell, while the policy statement is expected to tilt to the hawkish side, there is a risk of disappointment. Dollar bulls may thus take the opportunity to take profit on dollar long positions.

Before coming to the FOMC decision, we will watch the ADP Employment Change at 12:15 UTC.

EUR/USD

The euro fluctuates around the 1.20-level while still being in oversold territory. We now expect the pair to trade between 1.2050 on the upper side and 1.1950 on the lower side.

GBP/USD

Given the strong bear candles in the daily chart we expect the risk to remain tilted to the downside with a lower target being at 1.3530/1.35. However, the cable is deeply oversold, which is why we prepare for pullbacks towards 1.37 and 1.3730.

 

 

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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GBP/USD: Upswing Toward 1.43 or Drop Below 1.40?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar has proven to be stable on Tuesday amid trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Furthermore, the greenback was supported by speculation for an extended Federal Reserve hiking-cycle following hawkish commentary from Fed Governor Lael Brainard. Elsewhere, San Francisco President John Williams will be the successor to NY President William Dudley. Williams is more hawkish than Dudley.

The U.S. dollar strengthened against the euro but ended the trading day unchanged against the British pound.

As expected in our technical analysis from yesterday, the euro found a current support at 1.2250 from where it corrected some losses. If the euro now drops below 1.2240 we expect further losses towards 1.22. For bullish momentum to gain steam we would need to see a break above 1.2360.

Euro traders will watch the Eurozone Consumer Price Index today at 9:00 UTC, a report which could have an impact on the single currency.

The pound sterling rose towards 1.41 after it refrained from a decline below the rising trendline (see our analysis from Tuesday, April 3). If there is a renewed break below 1.4030 the pound could be vulnerable to further losses towards 1.40 and 1.39. However, as long as the pound remains above 1.40 we favor a bullish stance in the GBP/USD.

From the U.S., we have the ADP report scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 14:00 UTC.

Daily Forex Signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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U.S. Dollar Sells-Off On Trade-War Concerns

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Dear Traders,

Tuesday’s price action was characterized by ongoing U.S. dollar weakness. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD traded upwards as traders saw little reason to push the USD higher with the trade-war-theme still overshadowing the markets. Even though U.S. politicians have attempted to soften President Trumps ‘trade war rhetoric’, global concerns about a trade-war intensified. White House economic adviser Gary Cohn resigned as the U.S. administration prepares to impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum, which Cohn had opposed.

The dollar sold-off and pushed other major currencies higher in return. Whether the euro and pound could onto their high levels remains to be seen as event risks loom with the ECB meeting and Brexit talks posing a threat.

EUR/USD: The euro broke above 1.2370 and headed towards 1.2430 on the back of a weakening dollar. We now expect a next hurdle to come in at around 1.2450 but advise traders to keep taps on the overbought situation in this pair.

GBP/USD: The pound traded with a tailwind and climbed above 1.39. For bullish momentum to continue the cable would need to stabilize above 1.3850. If the pound remains above 1.3860 we expect a potential test of the 1.40-resistance zone.

From the U.S. we have the ADP Employment Change due for release at 13:15 UTC which could provide a foretaste of what to expect from Friday’s NFP report.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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www.maimar.co

U.S. Dollar Continues Slide After Trump State Of The Union Speech

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Dear Traders,

Turn-around Tuesday lived up to its name and we got what we were looking for: A reversal of the dollar’s short-lived recovery and a very good daily and monthly profit. The U.S. dollar is being sucked into the maelstrom triggered by the ‘America First’ agenda of the Trump administration. As for the depreciation of the greenback and the long-term outlook, we can point out that the protectionism move will negatively influence the world’s largest economy.

The dollar extended its slide after U.S. President Trump’s State of the Union speech. As expected, Trump sought to strike a positive tone and described a “New American Moment” of wealth and opportunity. Trump called on Congress to pass a 1.5 trillion infrastructure-spending plan but this campaign promise was widely expected by the markets. Thus, the dollar’s reaction to his speech was muted.

EUR/USD

The euro recovered some of its losses after the 1.2330-support proved intact. Now that the single currency has stabilized above 1.24 we could see another test of 1.2450, a short-term resistance in the EUR/USD. If the euro finds its way above 1.2460 we expect further gains towards 1.25 and possibly even 1.2650.

The British pound started a relief rally after the psychological support at 1.40 has been tested. If the pound climbs above 1.4210 we may see a rise towards 1.43 but this depends on the risk appetite and demand for dollars ahead of the FOMC decision.

The next upcoming risk event will be the FOMC rate decision at 19:00 UTC but no changes are expected. It will be Janet Yellen’s last FOMC meeting before her term ends in February.

Before coming to the FOMC decision, we will keep an eye on the Eurozone Consumer Price report, due at 10:00 UTC, followed by the ADP report at 13:15 UTC.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

GBP/USD: Upcoming Price Breakouts?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar slightly advanced against the euro and British pound as investors assessed the impact of proposed tax cuts. The next big risk event on the calendar will be Friday’s U.S. jobs report while the release of the ADP Employment Change (due today at 13:15 UTC) may provide a foretaste of what to expect from Friday’s report.

The pound sterling fell to a low of 1.3370 amid stalled Brexit negotiations but it was finally able to end the trading day above 1.34. Brexit talks will continue today and as long as negotiations do not make sufficient progress the pound could remain under pressure.

GBP/USD

Looking at the technical picture we currently see a higher likelihood of potential price breakouts. Based on a symmetrical triangle in the 4-hour chart, these breakouts could happen to either side. Above 1.3460 we anticipate accelerated bullish momentum driving the currency pair towards 1.3515. Below 1.3415 however, we will focus on further losses targeting at 1.3320.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

All Eyes On The FOMC Decision Even Though No Changes Are Expected

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Dear Traders,

While the euro ended yesterday’s trading day virtually unchanged, the pound sterling headed for a test of 1.33 but reversed some of its gains just shy of that barrier. Whether we will see a sustained breakout above 1.33 remains to be seen and hinges on the risk appetite for pounds ahead of tomorrow’s BoE Super Thursday. The bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade but this move is shrouded in suspicion. We will discuss the risk potential in tomorrow’s analysis.

Today’s focus will be on the Federal Reserve and the market’s appetite for U.S. dollars. It could thus be a turbulent trading day with traders bracing for higher volatility in all USD crosses.

The FOMC rate decision today at 18:00 UTC is top listing but the market is virtually certain that no change to the benchmark will be made this month. Economists expect policy makers to keep rates on hold for now and increase them at the December meeting. The probability of a December rate hike is at 83 percent. However, even if today’s Fed decision is unlikely to serve as a big market mover it could still surprise dollar bulls. In case of a less hawkish outcome, in other words, if there are a number of hawkish dissents, the dollar could give up some of its gains. Let us be surprised.

With regard to the U.S. tax reforms, the House Republicans are expected to release the tax bill text on Thursday.

We also have the ADP Report scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC followed by the ISM Manufacturing Index due at 14:00 UTC, so there is plenty of economic data that could affect the price action in the greenback today.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co