bear market – MaiMarFX

It’s the worst losing streak in the market since the 2008 financial crisis. Stock markets fall toward bear market, the euro drops toward parity with the U.S. dollar, the cable slides back toward 1.20 and also cryptocurrencies experience a major set-back. Market strategists expect this trend to continue and warn investors to prepare for a recession. While some optimistic traders are buying the dip while trying to pick a bottom, one thing is clear in a sell-off: You won’t know it’s over until long after it ends. And thus, we cannot predict what will happen and whether the sell-off will be over soon but we can follow the trend for now.

EUR/USD

We believe that the euro could slide even further touching 1.03 before it could try to recover some losses. A current resistance is seen at 1.06. We bear in mind that the pair’s all-time low is at 1.0340. A significant drop below 1.03 could see accelerated bearish momentum toward parity.

GBP/USD

If the pair is unable to break above 1.23, we see a next lower target at 1.20. The cable’s all-time low is at 1.1409.

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King Dollar has risen against almost everything as investors looked for shelter.

Many traders now question whether the Ukraine war could be the begin of a bear market. Prices whipsawed when the Russian military invaded Ukraine last week but some traders saw it as an opportunity to “buy the invasion”, a behavior that has led to a tremendous reversal in the market. While buying-the-dip gains show investors are piling in, more voices are now warning investors to be careful. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will cause higher inflation which will force the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. The invasion also increases the risk of stagflation, when inflation remains high while economic growth and unemployment are also high. The conflict in the middle of Europe could thus mean the end of the bull era of central bank excess and signal the beginning of a bear era of government intervention, social and political polarization and geopolitical isolationism, according to a Friday note from Bank of America Research.

However, while most of the past market declines did not become bear markets, the risk of a bear market is currently higher than at any other time. The sentiment will however depend on developments and may change any day.

EUR/USD – Opening with a downside gap

The down gap indicates a continuation of the downtrend but before bears assume the downtrend to resume, we may see short covering filling the gap. In other words, we may see a correction towards 1.1240 before selling pressures increases again. Nevertheless, if the euro drops below 1.1090, we brace for a decline towards 1.09.

DAX – Heading South

The index opened with a downside gap and could now face the lower support area at around 13600. Short-term bulls will watch out for prices above 14400 with higher targets seen at 14500 and 14800.