Bleak Economic Outlook

Welcome to a new trading and central bank rate-hike week.

After an unexpectedly higher U.S. inflation reading last Friday, chances for a 75bp Federal Reserve rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meetings are rising.

The Fed is expected to raise rates by 50bp on Wednesday but the main focus will be on the quarterly summary of economic projection which includes the dot-plot rate projections. Fed policy makers may pencil in a steeper path of interest rate hikes this year in the light of recent inflation developments. While a 50bp rate hike this month is all but certain, traders speculate on an even bigger rate hike of 75bp, and if not in June, then maybe in July. Apart of the hawkish guidance, the focus is shifting to the broader impact of the central bank’s policies on the economy. Aggressive rate hikes are having little effect on rising price pressures while the economy is cooling. Economists at Bloomberg put the chances of a recession at three in four next year saying “a downturn in 2022 is unlikely, but recession in 2023 will be tough to avoid”.

Last but not least, the Bank of England is widely expected to raise its interest rate on Thursday from 1 percent to 1.25 percent. Some market participants even price in some probability of a 50bp hike but this seems to be the much more unlikely scenario. Overall, the pound is anticipated to fall even further since the U.K. economy looks set to struggle.

GBP/USD – Bearish breakout

Sterling broke below 1.24 and the yearly low at 1.2155 isn’t all that far away now. Bears will now focus on price breaks below 1.2240 and 1.22. If the yearly low is cleared, there might be nothing in the way of a fall towards 1.20. The former support at 1.24 could now serve as a resistance.

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Profits And Bearish Breakouts

Also Thursday has proved to be a profitable trading day while traders were able to secure additional gains by using our signals for both currency pairs and the DAX.

EUR/USD – Bearish bias

The pair slipped below 1.1180 and immediately extended its slide toward 1.1130. Bears are back in control and may push the euro even lower despite the already deeply oversold situation. A crucial next target is 1.10 but the potential downward move will not happen straight-lined, so watch out for short-term corrections. A promising level for sellers to jump in will now be at around 1.1230.

GBP/USD – Supports breached but 1.3350 holds

As written in Thursday’s analysis, bears will wait for a break below 1.3350 in order to sell sterling toward 1.32. A lower resistance at 1.35 could attract sellers to jump back in.

We wish everyone a beautiful weekend!


Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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EUR And GBP: Bearish Bias Persists

Dear Traders,

The euro traded within a 50-pip range between 1.1750 and 1.17 but despite that limited price range we were able to book a good profit with our daily long signal. Looking ahead, there are no major economic reports out of the eurozone in the next days, which is why we keep tabs on the technical picture in the EUR/USD. As long as the euro remains below 1.1790 and 1.1830, we favor a bearish stance in this pair.

The pound sterling rose to a high of 1.3422 after U.K. retail sales came in better-than-expected. However, that report was not enough to trigger a sustained recovery in the pound given that rate hike expectations are unchanged. Thus, the risk remains tilted to the downside.

With the GBP/USD trading below 1.34 and more importantly below 1.3430, the cable maintains its bearish bias, suggesting that sterling prices may continue to fall. We will wait for price breaks below 1.3360 and 1.3340 to anticipate further losses. Lower targets are seen at 1.33 and 1.3270.

Today, traders will watch the U.K. GDP report at 8:30 UTC and U.S. Durable Goods Orders at 12:30 UTC.

We wish you a beautiful weekend or long-weekend for those who have a holiday on Monday.

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