Bitcoin – MaiMarFX

Bullish Bias

December 4, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Welcome to a new trading week.

The DAX surged to a fresh high at 16440 amid other rallies in Gold and Bitcoin. Markets bet on rate cuts and pay not much attention to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who reminds that policymakers are in no hurry to ease interest rates. Traders rather bet the Fed could cut rates as early as March 2024. Powell on Friday noted the central bank is ready to hike further if needed, though policy is “well into restrictive territory.”

This week, most attention will be paid to the U.S. non-farm payrolls data due on Friday.

DAX – Flirting with record highs

After the index broke above 16050, it almost headed straight-lined towards the next target at 16450. Above 16460, the next target will be the record-high at 16533. While we believe bullish momentum could be enough to break above record highs, we note that the index fluctuates within its resistance zone which is why we prepare for pullbacks towards 16200.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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Daily Forex And Crypto Signals

January 21, 2022/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Bitcoin breaks below the $40,000 level. Could we now see a fall toward the $30,000-handle? Maybe, but first bears will have to pass the 36000-level.

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EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1340

Short @ 1.1280

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3630

Short @ 1.3575

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 15810

Short @ 15720

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Bitcoin – Flash-Crash bis $30,000 möglich nach einem Fall unter die 40000-Marke?

January 10, 2022/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Der U.S. Arbeitsmarktbericht vom Freitag zeigte im Dezember lediglich 199.000 neue Stellen, weniger als die Hälfte der Prognosen, jedoch sank die Arbeitslosenquote unter 4 Prozent bei einem gestiegenen Lohnwachstum, was auf einen angespannten Arbeitsmarkt hindeutet. Trotz des enttäuschenden Stellenwachstums könnten der Rückgang der Arbeitslosenquote und das stärkere Lohnwachstum eine schnellere Straffung der Geldpolitik rechtfertigen. So wird damit gerechnet, dass die Federal Reserve bereits im März die Zinsen anheben könnte.

U.S. Dollar Bullen zogen sich nach dem NFP-Bericht vom Freitag zurück. Der Fokus in dieser Woche liegt nun auf dem am Mittwoch anstehenden U.S. Inflationsbericht vom Dezember. Die Gesamtinflation wird mit 7,0 Prozent im Jahresvergleich erwartet, wobei die Kerninflation mit 5,4 Prozent prognostiziert wird. Dies wären die höchsten Werte seit 30-40 Jahren. Ein über den Erwartungen liegendes Ergebnis könnte die falkenhaften Fed Spekulationen weiter ankurbeln und damit den Dollar-Trade stärken.

EUR/USD: Das Paar handelt weiterhin über 1.1270 und könnte einen Test von 1.14/1.1420 anstreben. Ein Ausbruch über 1.1430 könnte eventuell sogar zu einer beschleunigten Bullendynamik in Richtung von 1.15 führen. Die Euro Bullen stehen jedoch mehreren Widerständen gegenüber und die Risiken aufgrund der geldpolitischen Divergenz zwischen Europäischer Zentralbank und der Fed tendieren abwärts.

GBP/USD: Sterling Bullen versuchen derweil die Widerstandsmarke bei 1.36 zu überwinden, und sollte dies klappen, sehen wir ein höheres Ziel bei rund 1.3670. In letzter Zeit handelte das Paar jedoch tendenziell im überkauften Bereich, was die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Korrektur in Richtung 1.3450 erhöht.

Bitcoin – Wahrscheinlichkeit für einen Fall bis $30,000 erhöht nach einem potenziellen Unterschreiten der 40000-Marke

Da die Fed ihren Stimulus zurückzieht und damit dem System Liquidität entzieht, geraten spekulative Vermögenswerte unter Druck. Mit anderen Worten sind Kryptos angesichts der hawkischen Wendung der Fed derzeit anfälliger. Ein nachhaltiger Bruch unter 40000 könnte die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines Flash-Crashs in Richtung 30000 erhöhen. Über 53000 ändert sich die Stimmung hingegen zugunsten der Bullen.

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

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Bitcoin – Potential Flash Crash Toward $30,000?

January 10, 2022/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Friday’s U.S. jobs report came in with only 199k jobs in December, less than half of the projections but the unemployment rate fell below 4 percent and wages jumped last month, adding to evidence of a tight labor market. Despite the disappointing payroll growth, the drop in the jobless rate and faster wage growth may justify a quicker tightening of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve could raise rates as soon as March.

U.S. dollar bulls took a backseat following Friday’s NFP report. This week’s focus now shifts to the U.S. CPI report due on Wednesday with headline inflation expected at 7.0 percent y/y in December and core at 5.4 percent. These would be the highest readings in 30-40 years. A higher-than-expected reading could further spur hawkish Fed monetary policy bets and thus bolster the dollar trade.

Technically, not much has changed in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD since our analysis from last Monday 3.1.

EUR/USD: The pair remains trading above 1.1270 and could aim for a test of 1.14/1.1420. A break above 1.1430 could result in accelerated bullish momentum toward 1.15. However, euro bulls are facing several resistances with risks being tilted to the downside given the divergence of monetary policy paths between the European Central bank and the Fed.

GBP/USD: Sterling bulls are trying to clear the 1.36-resistance level and if this happens, we see a higher target at around 1.3670. However most recently, the pair tends to trade in overbought territory, increasing the chances of a correction toward 1.3450.

Bitcoin – Drop to $ 30,000 becomes increasingly likely after a potential break below 40,000

With the Fed withdrawing stimulus and thus removing liquidity from the system, speculative assets are coming under pressure. In other words, cryptos are more vulnerable amid the Fed’s hawkish twist. A sustained break below 40000 could increase the chances of a flash crash toward 30000. Above 53000, the sentiment changes in favor of the bulls.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Fresh Highs in Cryptocurrencies While U.S. Dollar Consolidates

November 9, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Monday’s best performer was the British pound which rose towards 1.3580 amid a weakening U.S. dollar. Our long entry at 1.3520 has thus proved profitable. We continue to see a short-term resistance at around 1.3615 in the GBP/USD.

EUR/USD: Buyers were able to take some profits yesterday but the upward move was limited to a high of 1.1595. We may see a renewed test of 1.1615 today. A current support is however seen at 1.15.

In the crypto world we saw fresh record highs with Bitcoin jumping above 68,000 and ETH/USD testing the 4800-price-area. Tests of 70,000 in BTC/USD and 5,000 in ETH/USD wouldn’t come as a surprise before a pronounced correction is due.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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ETH/USD

Long @ 4830

Short @ 4760

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Breakout-Mode

October 21, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Bitcoin set an all-time high while the U.S. dollar remained lower.

The British pound corrected gains until 1.3742 after U.K. inflation figures didn’t surprise to the upside but sterling was able to recoup previous losses towards the end of the day. High price pressures remain however a problem and investors brace for upcoming Bank of England rate hikes. As long as the GBP/USD remains above 1.37 we pencil in higher targets until 1.39.

The EUR/USD stabilized above 1.16 and bulls may sense the chance of a next leg up toward 1.17. A potential test of 1.17 could be in the cards provided that the euro holds above 1.1640.

DAX- Time for a breakout?

The index recently consolidated between 15600 and 15400 and we now see chances of upcoming price breakouts. A new rise above 15560 could spur bullish momentum towards 15600 and may lead to a break of the October high at 15633. Above 15630 we see chances of a run for 16000. On the downside and below 15480, the index could fall toward 15380. Below 15300 we expect further losses 15000.

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Will U.K. Inflation Justify an Aggressive BoE Rate Hike Path?

October 20, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

And once again it has been a relatively quiet trading day in the Forex market while elsewhere, indices like the S&P500 and Nasdaq, as well as Bitcoin are closing in on record highs. Beyond the disparity in risk appetite across assets, it could be difficult to justify all record highs. The driver for Bitcoin was the launch of the Bitcoin future-based ETF, BITO which was one of the biggest ETF launches on record. Cryptocurrency appetite could thus persist if BITO draws in more capital within the next days.

The U.S. dollar fell amid bets other central banks will raise interest rates before the Federal Reserve. The British pound rose above 1.38 as market participants shifted expectations for a first Bank of England rate hike to as early as December, which is very aggressive.

This morning we will have U.K. inflation data due for release which will have an impact on the pound sterling.

GBP/USD: Above 1.3860 we will anticipate higher targets at around 1.39. A short-term support could however come in at 1.3650.

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Short Traders Profit Amid Tuesday’s Selloff

September 8, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Tuesday saw a selloff across the markets while the U.S. dollar rallied. Short traders were able to profit, particularly in the GBP/USD where our short position (SELL at 1.3815) has reached its profit target.

Elsewhere, cryptocurrencies saw a flash crash with Ethereum and Bitcoin correcting recent gains and testing crucial support levels.

The EUR/USD remained confined to a small trading range ahead of the ECB decision tomorrow. We expect that the euro’s lethargic state will continue, at least until the ECB press conference tomorrow. We look at a price range between 1.19 and 1.1750 for now.

GBP/USD: A lower support is seen at 1.3730 and once that lower barrier is significantly breached, our focus shifts to 1.3650. Resistances are seen at 1.3880 and 1.3980.

DAX: We keep tabs on price breakouts either above 16000 or below 15700.

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Global Market Rally Continues, Bitcoin Jumps On Tesla Bet

February 9, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The global market rally goes on while demand for the safe-haven U.S. dollar ebbed. Investors are taking comfort from the vaccine rollouts and signs of progress on stimulus amid concerns about extended valuations. Stocks are at record highs and Bitcoin surged to a record high on Tesla’s investment in the largest cryptocurrency.

However, there are also some risks since inflation expectations are near the highest since 2013. Investors start to worry whether these valuations are becoming too expensive and when the so-called reflation trade could start to threaten equities. Investors will have to be grappling with these risks as the year goes on.

The U.S. dollar declined amid the market’s increased risk appetite.

EUR/USD: As expected, the euro posted a small rebound and could be primed for a test of 1.2090/1.21. A break above 1.21 could push the pair towards 1.2170 whereas a decline below 1.20 could lead to further losses towards 1.1930.

GBP/USD: The cable was finally able to take out the 1.3750-barrier and seems to be on its way towards 1.38 now. However, we advise caution as the pair enters overbought territory. If the pound falls back below 1.3750 we anticipate a correction towards 1.3710.

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Will The Rally Continue in 2021?

January 4, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Dear traders,

We hope that you are all doing well and wish you a safe, healthy and prosperous new year!

The market begins the new year at rich valuations with stocks fluctuating near a record amid renewed concerns about the spread of the coronavirus. While market analysts expect that the economic path will be bumpy over the first quarter in 2021, positive expectations are that widespread vaccine distribution, government stimulus and central bank support will reignite economic growth after the middle of the year.

Green light to a continuation of the market’s rally?

Before bubble warnings are probably getting louder in 2021, we, as day traders will follow the trend, which is our friend – as long as it remains intact. However, market participants should try to avoid greed and given the fact that price trends have raised eyebrows with Bitcoin’s record-breaking advance as well as indices that ended the year at 30- or 40-times profits, buying could become increasingly dangerous.

GBP/USD

Britain exited its decades-long membership of the European Union trading bloc and a last-minute Brexit agreement has helped the currency pair reaching for fresh highs. Traders now wonder whether further gains beyond 1.3700 could be in play.

Analysts expect the currency to hold its ground around current levels through 2021. Looking at the technical picture, we focus on higher targets around 1.3720-50 but we expect some corrective moves in the near-term since the pair trades in overbought territory. A current support is seen t 1.36.

EUR/USD

The euro’s trend is clear and a clear target for bulls is the 1.25 level last reached in February 2018. There might be no fundamental reason why that target should not be challenged even if the European central bank tries hard to subdue the currency to lift the Eurozone’s inflation rate.

With the uptrend continuing, a direct intervention in the foreign exchange rate from the ECB is unlikely since the correlation between monetary policy and the level of the currency seems to have broken down recently. Even if the ECB eases its monetary policy further in the first few months of 2021 to counter the impact on the economy of the coronavirus pandemic, the euro might not weaken as much as it would have done in the past.

In short-term time frames we anticipate corrective movements towards 1.2150 and 1.2050 but if the euro is able to climb above 1.2310, we will shift our focus to 1.24.

DAX

The index reached a high of 13912 amid the global equity rally. A next bullish target is now seen at 14000 followed by 14300 while support zones are seen at 13400, 13200 and 13000.