Posts
BoE Super Thursday To Provide Trading Opportunity For Sterling Traders
Dear Traders,
It’s Super Thursday at the Bank of England, which means we get a rate decision along with the Quarterly Inflation Report and comments from BoE Governor Mark Carney. Today’s meeting is the most important event this week and sterling traders prepare for volatile swings around the monetary policy announcement. The big question among market participants is how hawkish the BoE might be towards the end of this year. The market is fully pricing in a rate increase at the BoE’s Super Thursday in November while market participants see a 50/50 chance of an earlier rate hike in May. If evidence points to a rate rise in May, the pound will rally and may find its way back to 1.42. However, if the tone in today’s statement is not as hawkish as traders are hoping, the pound will fall.
The focus will also be on the inflation report and if economic growth and inflation forecasts are revised higher, GBP/USD could recover some of its recent losses.
There is also the possibility of a muted response following today’s statement. Brexit risks continue to cause uncertainty about the outlook and if those risks have not changed substantially, the market’s reaction to the statement could be muted.
We will know more today at 12:00 UTC.
GBP/USD: The cable found some support around 1.3850 and if this barrier is breached to the downside we expect further losses towards 1.3750. For bullish momentum to accelerate, it would however need a sustained break above 1.40.
EUR/USD: The euro broke out of its recent sideways trend channel and fell towards 1.2240. The break below 1.23 came despite Angela Merkel’s deal with the SPD to form a great coalition in Germany. Technically speaking, the chances are now in favor of further downside potential driving the pair towards 1.2220 and 1.2170. If the euro rises back above 1.2350, bulls may take over control.
Daily Forex Signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.
Can The Pound Hold Onto Its Gains? Carney Will Decide
Dear Traders,
At the end of the day, the FOMC meeting has proved to be a non-event for traders with the Federal Reserve holding interest rates flat and providing no new insights on the pace of future rate hikes. As expected, there were no surprises and so the U.S. dollar resumed its decline against its major peers. The Fed reiterated its intention to raise rates gradually as the labor market tightens and market participants will now shift their focus to Friday’s jobs report. Due to the fact, that the FOMC statement did not appear overly hawkish, an imminent rate hike in March is increasingly unlikely.
The euro rose again towards 1.08 after marking a short-term support around 1.0730. Traders are eagerly waiting for the euro to break through the 1.0810-barrier and once that level is breached we may see the euro further rising towards 1.0870. Current supports are seen at 1.0715 and 1.0660. From the Eurozone, there will be no major economic reports scheduled for release today so we expect the price action to depend on the demand for dollars.
ECB president Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 12:15 UTC but today’s speech is not expected to have a major impact on the euro.
Today will be a big day for sterling traders with the Bank of England publishing its quarterly inflation report alongside the MPC statement and rate decision. Moreover, BoE governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference following the announcement. While the BoE is expected to stand pat, policymakers may revise up its growth and inflation forecasts. Inflation is on the rise and for Carney it could be a communicative challenge to keep monetary policy unchanged in the face of accelerating price growth. Investors suspect that the central bank might shift its bias from neutral to slightly hawkish while traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of a hike than a cut. This assumption is expressed in the pound’s recent rise.
The BoE will release its Quarterly Inflation Report and rate decision at 12:00 UTC, followed by a press conference 30 minutes later.
GBP/USD
The pound is facing its resistance zone at 1.2730-75. Whether this barrier could give way hinges on the BoE statement. Above 1.2685 a test of 1.2720/30 becomes increasingly likely. On the downside, the 1.26 support is intact. Below that level we may see the pound tumbling towards 1.2550/20.
Daily Forex signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.
Traders Prepare For Volatile Swings This Week
Dear Traders,
We welcome you to a new trading week. Financial markets are dominated by uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s administration, prompting large investors to adopt a wait-and-see stance. The U.S. dollar came under further pressure after Trump’s order halting some immigration, causing geopolitical tensions. Risk aversion has therefore led to a recent sideways trend with both major currency pairs trading in relatively narrow trading ranges. This phase of trendless and uncertain markets makes it difficult for day traders to benefit from limited fluctuations and the lack of price breakouts.
This week’s major event risks might bring some new momentum to the markets and trigger profitable breakouts. The economic calendar is very busy in terms of market moving data and traders await high volatility throughout the entire week. The week starts off with the German Consumer Price report, scheduled for release today at 13:00 UTC which could lend a support to the euro. On Tuesday, the Eurozone Consumer Price report will be important to watch while an upbeat report could lead to speculation that the European Central Bank might start to reduce its asset purchases in the near future. With regard to top-tier U.S. economic data, the FOMC rate decision and the Non-Farm Payrolls report (Friday) will take center stage this week. The FOMC committee will deliver an update on its policy stance on Wednesday and while the FOMC statement is expected to be relatively upbeat, the fiscal policy uncertainty may frustrate the greenback’s recovery.
For sterling traders, the most interesting event will be the Bank of England‘s ‘Super Thursday‘ which may shape expectations for the near-term outlook for sterling. The BoE releases its Quarterly Inflation Report alongside its monthly monetary policy decision. If BoE policymakers show greater willingness to drop their dovish tone and gradually move away from their easing cycle, the pound could be vulnerable to further gains, heading for a test of 1.2780/90.
Important data for today:
13:00 EUR German CPI data
13:30 USA PCE Report
15:00 USA Pending Home Sales
Daily Forex signals:
Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.
View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/
Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/
We wish you good trades and many pips!
Any and all liability of the author is excluded.
Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.
We are Maite & Marios Krausse, both born in Germany and trade full time in the Foreign Exchange Market (Forex) as independent traders.
Our teamwork began in 1998, when we got to know and love each other. 20 years later after having built our careers, our son was born, making us a happy family. Continue reading...
