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After Hawkish Fed Focus Shifts To BoE

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As expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% and left the door open for one more rate hike before the end of the year. The Summary of Economic Projections showed 50bp fewer rate cuts in 2024 than previously indicated. The Fed sees just two rate cuts next year which would put the funds rate around 5.1 percent.

The U.S. dollar rose in the aftermath of the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and pushed both euro and pound sterling lower in turn.

This morning we see GBP/USD trading around 1.23. Below 1.2270 we expect further losses.

The focus today shifts to the Bank of England rate decision (due 13:00 UTC) while the BoE could go either way. Previous expectations were firmly in favor of another 25bp rate hike today but yesterday’s U.K. Consumer Price Index showed softening inflationary pressures which is why market pricing significantly shifts towards a rate pause now. However, according to a statement from UK Chancellor Hunt saying that “Inflation is still too high” and “It’s all the more important to stick to our plan to halve inflation”. In other words, a BoE 25bp rate hike is still well in the cards.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

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Our trading ideas for today 21/9/23:

 

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2380

Short @ 1.2290

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

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Will GBP Correct On BoE?

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The U.S. CPI report surprised lower, at least the headline inflation gauge which came in at 4.9 percent in April, slightly lower than the 5.0 percent forecast. The core gauge printed 5.5 percent which was in line with expectations. As anticipated, the U.S. dollar further weakened in the aftermath of the slightly better inflation print.

The British pound rose to a high of 1.2680 but was unable to overcome this resistance.

The euro, however, refrained from a sustained break above 1.10 and oscillated sideways around the 1.0970-handle.

Today the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates to 4.5 from 4.25 percent. The BoE decision is scheduled for 11:00 UTC. What matters is the forward guidance. The market expects more rate hikes later this year with a potential pivot from hawkish to dovish in early 2024. Any signs of earlier rate cuts could lead to a deeper correction in the GBP/USD.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 11/5/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1010

Short @ 1.0965

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2630

Short @ 1.2580

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15940

Short @ 15890

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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U.K. Inflation Hits Highest Level In 41 Years

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U.K. inflation rose to 11.1 percent from a year ago while this result increases the chances the Bank of England will raise interest rates again next month.

From a technical perspective, there could be room for a bullish extension towards 1.2060 but sterling bulls should be careful since the pound remains slightly overbought. The current support area is seen at around 1.17.

Our trading ideas for today 17/11/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0410

Short @ 1.0340

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.1925

Short @ 1.1885

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 14340

Short @ 14290

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC,  SL 25

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Fed Holds Dovish Line, Focus Shifts To BoE

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The Federal Reserve held its dovish line and continued to project near-zero interest rates at least through 2023 while the central bank upgraded its forecasts for economic growth and the labor market. The dot plot showed that seven of 18 Fed officials predicted higher rates by the end of 2023 compared with five of 17 at the December meeting which was a slightly larger group of ‘hawkish dots’.

As for the withdrawal of the ultra-easy monetary policy, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a virtual press conference that the time to talk about reducing the Fed’s asset purchases was “not yet”.

While prospects of stronger growth have ignited some concern about higher inflation among investors the Fed expects that a bump in inflation this year will be short-lived.

In a nutshell, the market did not get such a hawkish outcome leading to a shift in the current risk sentiment. Instead, the Fed’s projected policy path and its upgrade of the economic outlook provide a positive backdrop for risk assets, which is why the anti-risk dollar weakened.

Today we will have the Bank of England rate decision at 12:00 UTC. The BoE is expected to leave monetary policy unchanged but volatility could pick up around the time of the decision.

GBP/USD: The technical picture has not materially changed. We will pay attention to price breakouts either above 1.4020 or below 1.3850 and further 1.3780.

DAX: The index hit our bullish target of 14720. If there is no break above 14760, the DAX could be due to a correction now. A higher support is seen at around 14500.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

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GBP/USD Jumps On BoE, Focus Now On NFP Report

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The British pound posted a sharp increase after the Bank of England stated that negative rates are not coming in the foreseeable future. The main focus had been on the debate about the feasibility of negative interest rates and while the BoE stated that it is appropriate to get ready for negative rates if needed, they do not intend to signal that this policy tool will be implemented in the near-term. The central bank forecast that the U.K. economy is heading for a powerful rebound thanks to an aggressive push to vaccinate citizens. Furthermore, the inflation is expected to rise sharply towards 2 percent in spring.

This was enough for GBP/USD to jump from a low of 1.3565 to a high of almost 1.37. Technically, the pair is back in its sideways range where we pay attention to prices between 1.3750 and 1.3610.

EUR/USD: The euro succumbed to the dollar’s rebound and fell towards 1.1950. Traders should now focus on lower targets at 1.1930 and 1.19 from where we could see a reversal since the pair is in oversold territory.

DAX: The index was finally able to take out the 14030-barrier and could now be primed for a test of 14130. Above that level there are no significant resistances until 14350.

Today we have the Non-farm payrolls report scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC which is forecast to show that 100,000 jobs were added in the U.S. in January after a 140,000 drop in December. A stronger report could increase the buying pressure in the U.S. dollar.

We wish you a beautiful weekend!

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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GBP/USD: Highly Profitable Trading

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Dear Traders,

Those of you who traded the GBP/USD recently, were able to achieve a significant profit by trading our daily signal alerts. Yesterday, this was once more the case while our short trade hit the profit target in less than five minutes. The pound slid to a low of 1.2602 after Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said he is still worried about the impact of Brexit on the economy. Carney said in yesterday’s morning statement that now is not the time to hike rates. In short, his view is still very bearish and with Brexit negotiations having just begun it could be a bumpy road for the U.K. in the next months. In case of any bad headlines, the pound will fall but looking at the technical picture, we currently see chances of a, at least short-term, recovery from sterling’s low levels.

GBP/USD

The currency pair stopped its fall at the lower bound of its recent downward channel. While this does not necessarily mean that further losses are unlikely, that halt just increases the likelihood of a potential pullback towards 1.27 and 1.28. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaches oversold territory, underpinning the chances of short-term upward movements. If the pound drops however below 1.2590 we expect accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.2550 and 1.25.

The performance of the EUR/USD is lagging behind since price fluctuations narrowed. The euro declined on the back of a slightly stronger U.S. dollar but the decline was limited to a low of 1.1118. We will now pay attention to a break of 1.11. After the 1.1075-level has been breached, we could see the euro tumbling towards 1.1020. Current resistances are however seen at 1.1150 and 1.12.

Daily Forex signals:

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View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

GBP/USD Ignores Dollar Strength After BoE’s Surprise Divison

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Dear Traders,

The market digests the Fed’s hawkish policy shift and sends the U.S. dollar higher. The euro declined on the back of a strengthening dollar and thus, EUR/USD headed towards the lower barrier of its recent sideways trend channel. We now expect a next support to come in at 1.11 and 1.1070. Current resistance levels are however seen at 1.12/1.1225.

While the EUR/USD was the best performer for day traders Thursday, the GBP/USD went on a roller coaster ride after the Bank of England’s split came as a surprise for sterling traders. The pound rose against the dollar after a surprise division within the BoE’s monetary policy committee, with three members of the MPC voting for a rate increase. Given this hawkish shift despite the uncertainty that follows last week’s U.K. election, a rate hike may be closer than the market currently expects. The pound rose towards 1.28 in an initial reaction to the MPC statement. A break above 1.2820 may send the pound higher towards 1.2860 while a sustained rally in the GBP/USD might be difficult given the renewed strength in the USD. Sterling bears may however wait for a renewed break below 1.2720 in order to sell pounds towards 1.2650.

Having gained a good profit this week we recommend securing your weekly profits today.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro And Cable: Sideways Trend As Major Market Movers Lack

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Dear Traders,

With U.S. markets shut on Monday, we had a pretty quiet market and low market volatility. Thus, any larger market movements were lacking and both of our major currency pairs fluctuated in narrow sideways trading ranges.

During Asia-Pacific trading hours the euro finally dropped below 1.06 and is now within its support area between 1.0580 and 1.0560. Given the recent bearish momentum the euro may extend its losses towards 1.0550 but in short-term time frames the single currency is in an oversold territory which is why we could see some pullbacks today. Current resistances are seen at 1.06 and 1.0635 from where sellers may jump back in.

German and Eurozone PMI reports are scheduled for release at 8:30 and 9:00 UTC but these reports are not expected to have a significant impact on the euro.

The British pound was unable to break through the 1.2480-barrier and finally gave up its modest gain, sliding back towards 1.2430. If the pound falls below 1.2425, we may see further losses towards 1.24 and possibly even 1.2350. Sterling bulls should however wait for prices above 1.2480 in order to buy sterling towards 1.2550.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will testify before the U.K. Parliament at 10:00 UTC and his comments could have an impact on the pound’s price action.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co