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Brexit Saga Continues

We welcome you to the final ‘full’ trading week of 2020 which will be our last one ahead of the holiday season.

The British pound gapped higher after U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen agreed to continue Brexit talks in hopes of scoring a last-minute deal. While prospects of a deal have dimmed, pound traders have become hardened to countless missed deadlines and last-minute talks around Brexit.

GBP/USD

The pound gapped up at the weekly trading open and our focus now turns back to the 1.34-barrier. We see prices still confined to a short-term downtrend channel which favors further bearish momentum if 1.34 proves to be challenging for bulls. However, we advise pound traders to take a cautious approach as price action could get messy as long as the Brexit saga continues.

EUR/USD: Recently, the pair remained trading within a sideways trading range between 1.2170 and 1.2060 but chances are still in favor of further bullish momentum. As long as the euro is able to hold above 1.21, traders eye the 1.22-level. On the downside, a break below 1.2080 could invigorate fresh bearish momentum until 1.2030.

DAX

We saw the index recovering its losses after dipping to a low of 13006 Friday. We now focus on the price area around 13250 which could act as a resistance. An upside break above 13300 would favor bullish momentum whereas bears may pay attention to a renewed break below 13100.

Talking points this week:

The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and Wednesday, with markets widely expecting fresh guidance on its continued asset purchases. The Fed will release its latest economic projections but the tone is likely to be cautious and thus the outlook for the U.S. dollar is mainly neutral.

We wish you good trades!

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EUR/USD & GBP/USD: Breakouts Ahead?

The euro has been treading water Tuesday, with the price reluctant to push above 1.2135. Thus, there has been no rewarding trading chance for day traders in the EUR/USD.

Is it now time for a breakout in the EUR/USD?

Maybe – at least for a small technical breakout ahead of tomorrow’s ECB rate decision. Prices narrowed formatting a symmetrical triangle this morning which predicts upcoming price breakouts to either side. A renewed rise above 1.2130 could encourage bulls to buy euros towards the 1.2140-50 area where we see a next hurdle. If the euro is able to take out the 1.2150-barrier and climbs above 1.2165 we may see a run for 1.2230. On the downside we will keep an eye on a sustained break below 1.21 which could send the euro lower towards 1.2050. A break below 1.2030 could result in a test of 1.20.

GBP/USD

Today, U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson travels to Brussels for dinner with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen as both sides seek to save Brexit trade negotiations. Until we know more in the next couple of days, the Brexit saga continues. But bear in mind, that if there is no agreement the pound could fall much more than its 1.6% plunge on Monday. With a deal we could see sterling racing towards 1.3650 and maybe even higher, depending on what is already priced in into the pound’s uptrend.

Looking at the technical picture we see the cable confined to a trading range between 1.34 and 1.33. In case of a renewed rise above 1.3410 it will be interesting whether bearish momentum starts to emerge if price touches the 1.3450-zone (red ellipse). On the downside, the 1.3285-level remains of interest, while a break below that level could invigorate fresh bearish momentum towards 1.32. However, a no-deal would wipe out all previous forecasts and analysis with lower targets which are not conceivable.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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EUR/USD & GBP/USD: Bevorstehende Ausbrüche?

Der Euro trat am Dienstag auf der Stelle, wobei sich der Kurs sträubte über 1.2135 zu steigen. Somit gab es keine lohnenswerte Handelschance für Daytrader im EUR/USD.

Ist es jetzt Zeit für einen Ausbruch?

Vielleicht – zumindest für einen kleinen technischen Ausbruch im Vorfeld der morgigen EZB Zinsentscheidung. Die Kurse sind enger zusammengeflossen und formatierten heute früh ein symmetrisches Dreieck, welches aufkommende Ausbrüche zu beiden Seiten prognostiziert. Ein erneuter Anstieg über 1.2130 könnte nun die Bullen dazu veranlassen Euros bis zum 1.2140-50-Bereich zu kaufen, wo wir eine nächste Hürde sehen. Kann der Euro jene Barriere überwinden und klettert über 1.2165, so wäre auch ein Lauf bis 1.2230 denkbar. Auf der Unterseite werden wir ein Auge auf einen nachhaltigen Bruch unter 1.21 haben, welcher den Euro zu einem tieferen Ziel bei 1.2050 schicken könnte. Unterhalb von 1.2030 könnte es zu einem Test von 1.20 kommen.

GBP/USD

Heute Abend werden sich U.K. Premierminister Boris Johnson und EU-Kommissionspräsidentin Ursula von der Leyen zu einem Krisen-Dinner treffen um endlich eine Einigung in den Brexit Verhandlungen zu erzielen. Wir werden in den nächsten Tagen eventuell mehr wissen und bis dahin hält die Brexit Saga an. Wir behalten im Hinterkopf, dass, falls es zu keiner Einigung kommen sollte, das Pfund weit tiefer abstürzen könnte als die 1,6% Talfahrt vom Montag. Im Falle eines Deals hingegen, könnte Sterling bis 1.3650 emporschnellen und eventuell sogar höher, abhängig von dem was bereits im Aufwärtstrend des Pfunds eingepreist ist.

Schauen wir uns das technische Bild an, so sehen wir, dass der Cable momentan auf eine Spanne zwischen 1.34 und 1.33 begrenzt ist. Im Falle eines Anstiegs über 1.3410 wird es interessant werden, ob der 1.3450-Bereich (rote Ellipse) ein neues Einstiegslevel für Bären darstellt oder ob dieser gebrochen wird. Auf der Unterseite bleibt das 1.3285-Level von Interesse, wobei ein Bruch unterhalb jenes Levels frische Bärendynamik bis 1.32 auslösen könnte. Im Falle keines Deals würden jedoch alle vorigen Prognosen und Analysen ausradiert werden und die tieferen Ziele wären aktuell nicht absehbar.

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British Pound Sharply Falls on Prospects of a No-Deal

Dear traders,

Friday’s disappointing U.S. employment data had little impact on the haven-linked U.S. dollar which largely underperformed. We decided not to trade Friday’s choppy movements in EUR/USD and GBP/USD and stayed on the sidelines.

Elsewhere, global equities aimed mostly higher as the world moved closer toward the first doses of a coronavirus vaccine.

The euro is eyeing the European Central Bank rate decision on Thursday where the ECB may increase bond-buying operations. Last week’s rise in EUR/USD took it to a high of 1.2177 and traders now wonder whether the ECB would intervene to weaken its currency. Generally speaking, the central bank is more likely to look at the euro’s value against the currencies of the EU’s major trading partners to evaluate the euro exchange rate. Nonetheless, bulls in the euro might be cautious ahead of the ECB decision, which is making a correction more likely in the next days.

What is expected from the ECB

No change in interest rates is expected but the central bank has hinted that it will ease monetary policy still further. An increase in its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) of around 500 billion euro is the most likely level. Such action would normally weaken the currency but given the fact that these times are not normal, anything can happen.

EUR/USD Technical picture

On short-term time frames a double top-pattern could suggest upcoming bearish momentum, provided that the euro slips below 1.21. A lower target could be around 1.2040. However, if the euro rises back above 1.2180, gains may be extended until 1.22 but any bullish move could be on shaky grounds.

Brexit is the elephant in the room

The pound posted its largest decline in almost three months after Michel Barnier warned that Brexit talks could collapse in the next few hours. Optimism now turned to pessimism and sterling traders brace for a no-deal scenario.

GBP/USD Technical picture

The pound extended its gains until 1.3539 on Brexit optimism but now the facts count. In case of no deal, the pound will quickly erase its gains and could even fall towards 1.3050. The last important support was 1.34 early morning and now that the pound broke below 1.33, we will shift our focus to the 13220-00 support. On the upside we would need to see a rise back above 1.35 in order to encourage bulls for a run for 1.3580-1.36.

We went short this morning at 1.3370 and were able to book a good profit.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

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U.S. Dollar Weak, Euro And Pound Soar – Can This Continue?

This content is for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DAX and EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DAX members only.
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British Pound Climbs on Optimism About Brexit Deal By Mid-November

This content is for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DAX and EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DAX members only.
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British Pound Climbs on Hopes of Brexit Deal

Dear traders,

It has been a rocky trading day Wednesday with the euro and cable finding a short-term support before they managed to recover some lost ground against the U.S. dollar.

The British pound climbed as investors awaited more news on Brexit negotiations. The U.K. and EU consider the end of October or first days of November as real deadline for getting a deal. The U.K. will leave the bloc’s single market and customs union with or without a new trade agreement when the 11-month transition period expires on December 31, but any deal has to be approved by the British and European parliaments before then.

The DAX hasn’t served us well yesterday and neither bullish nor bearish momentum provided any profitable trading chance.

Let’s see what today brings.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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