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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.30

Dear Traders,

Sellers in the GBP/USD remained in control after the U.K. CPI fell short of expectations. The soft inflation report is making a BoE rate hike next month less likely than previously expected. The pound tested the 1.3010-mark but was later able to stabilize above 1.3050. Higher resistances could now come in at 1.3150 and 1.3230. As long as the pound remains below 1.3230 we may see a dip towards 1.2950.

Sterling traders may keep an eye on U.K. Retail Sales today at 8:30 UTC.

For day traders of the EUR/USD there was nothing to gain Wednesday. The euro fell victim to a strengthening dollar but losses were limited to the 1.16-handle. As long as 1.16 holds we expect the pair to trade between 1.1720 and 1.1620.

Given the liquidity drain, traders should bear in mind that trading conditions could be challenging during the summer months. A proper risk management is therefore indispensable.

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Can U.K. Inflation Numbers Finally Lift The Pound?

Dear Traders,

The biggest story in the market was the sharp drop of the British pound as sellers have shown-up in the GBP/USD following hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. With the U.S. economy remaining in good shape despite recent worries about trade tensions, the FOMC believes that “the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate.” The U.S. dollar received a boost from that upbeat outlook with traders bracing for further tightening from the Fed. The market is now pricing in a 90 percent chance of a next rate hike in September and a 64 percent chance of a hike in December.

With the dollar regaining strength both euro and British pound came under increased selling pressure. The GBP/USD dropped more than 140 pips from our short entry level while the EUR/USD slid back towards 1.1650.

Today is day 2 of Powell’s testimony and traders may be looking for further gains in the dollar. We also have the U.K. June inflation numbers scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC. This will be the final piece of CPI data ahead of the BoE August rate decision so watch out for volatile movements in the GBP/USD around that important release.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Profitable Sell-Off In EUR/USD And GBP/USD

Dear Traders,

After several days of sluggish price fluctuations, yesterday has proved to be a profitable trading day in particular for short traders of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

The British pound continued its slide versus the U.S. dollar on the back of worse-than-expected U.K. inflation data. The annual CPI fell to 2.4 percent from 2.5 percent while the core CPI fell to 2.1 from 2.3 percent. Lower inflation could keep interest rates lower for longer with the Bank of England being in no rush to tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later. Thus, BoE rate hike expectations are pushed back to November.

The pound marked a fresh support at 1.3305 from where a slight recovery started. As long as pullbacks are limited to 1.34 and 1.3450, sterling bears might retain control.

The euro fell below 1.17 after the weak PMI reading put further pressure on the single currency. We now focus on the 1.1810-level which could act as a short-term resistance. A break below 1.1650 could open the door for further losses towards 1.1620 and 1.1550.

The FOMC Minutes had only a limited impact on the dollar’s price action. With the markets widely anticipating a Fed rate hike in June the minutes were not expected to reveal anything new. The only note in the statement that weighed on the dollar was that “it was premature to conclude that inflation would remain at levels around 2 percent”.

Today we have U.K. Retail Sales scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC. Furthermore, BoE Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak at the BoE Markets Forum in London.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Pound Drops On Decreased BoE Rate Hike Odds

Dear Traders,

Thursday has proved to be a high volatile trading day which became most visible in the pound’s price action following the BoE Super Thursday rate decision. While we have focused on a potential short squeeze in the GBP/USD, provided that the Bank of England would have maintained its hawkishness, the opposite scenario happened. The BoE went dovish and disappointed sterling bulls that had hoped for a bullish reversal from the pound’s lows. BoE policy makers decreased their near-term hawkish monetary policy expectations and noted that inflation may have peaked. Inflation and GDP forecasts were lowered. BoE Governor Mark Carney was back to the previous ‘slower and gradual’ rate hike path instead of warning that rate hikes could happen faster than expected.

Consequently, rate hike bets for an August rise fell to 42 percent from 62 percent. The most likely meeting for when a rate hike would occur is probably the November meeting, with a current priced-in probability of 64 percent.

As for the U.S. dollar, U.S. inflation numbers disappointed but, looking at the price action in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD, the greenback refrained from showing any signs of weakness shortly after the numbers were released. However, even though inflation numbers came in weaker-than-expected, the Fed is likely to maintain its current rate hike path.

GBP/USD: The cable bounced off the rising trendline refraining from a climb above 1.3620 and finally headed for a break below the 1.35-support. At the end of the day however, the pound was more or less unchanged against the dollar with any larger swings lacking.

We will now focus on a trading range between 1.3630 and 1.3440. Any breakouts above or below these levels can spur momentum to the respective direction.

EUR/USD: The Euro tested the area around 1.1950 and euro bulls should keep an eye on a potential run for 1.20 now. As long as the euro remains above 1.1880 we favor the upward momentum.

ECB President Draghi will speak in Florence today at 13:15 UTC.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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British Pound Continues Decline On Carney Comments

Dear Traders,

The pound sterling continued its decline on Thursday with the cable dropping below 1.4145 and easily breaking through the 1.4090-support. Whether the pound’s sharp trend reversal will be sustained within the near-term remains to be seen but short traders in the GBP/USD should be rather cautious, at least for now.

Another reason for accelerated bearish momentum in the cable was an interview with Bank of England Governor Mark Carney who downplayed expectations of a rate hike at the BoE’s next meeting in May. He said that one rate hike is likely in 2018 but there are other meetings over the course of this year. However, if the BoE chooses to raise rates next month, despite recent data disappointments, sterling bulls may take over control ahead of the monetary policy decision on May 10.

GBP/USD: A crucial support is now seen at 1.4010/1.40 but with no important economic reports or fundamental events scheduled for release today it is unlikely that the pound is vulnerable to a downside break of that important barrier. A current resistance, on the other hand, is seen between 1.4150-1.4180.

The euro’s second attempt to break above 1.24 ended in failure, which is why the risk remains tilted to the downside. As mentioned in previous analysis, short traders in the EUR/USD should keep tabs on a break of the 1.23-barrier. Lower targets could be at 1.2265 and 1.2230. Euro bulls, on the other hand, should wait for an upside break above 1.2430.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Pound Slumps On Disappointing Inflation Data

Dear Traders,

The biggest story in the Forex market on Wednesday was the sharp drop of the British pound. The pound extended its losses towards 1.4170 following the release of disappointing U.K. inflation data. Inflation fell to 2.5 percent, the lowest level in a year and investors fear that the lower reading could encourage Bank of England policy makers to postpone an imminent rate hike in May. Consequently, expectations for a rate hike next month dropped to a 65 percent probability, down from 87 percent.

GBP/USD

From a technical perspective, we saw the pound rushing through a previous support-area between 1.4250 and 1.4220 which turned into a current resistance now. A lower support now comes in at around 1.4145. However, traders should bear in mind that the overall uptrend is still intact and with the next BoE meeting (and a potential rate hike) still three weeks away, buyers may take the opportunity to buy pounds at lower levels.

We will keep tabs on a price range between 1.4250 and 1.4140 now. If the pound breaks out of that range we might see momentum accelerating to the respective direction. A lower support is seen at 1.4090, whereas for the bullish bias to resume it would need a renewed break above 1.4315.

The U.K. Retail Sales report is due for release today at 8:30 UTC.

In contrast to the high volatility in the GBP/USD, we have seen a lackluster price development in the EUR/USD. The pair is still range-bound and this long period of range (three months already) has discouraged many traders from trading the EUR/USD. However, there have been some profitable trading opportunities but larger swings tend to be rare at the moment.

We are still looking for an upside break of the 1.24-barrier and if that breakout happens our patience could pay off. Based on the recent uptrend channel we expect a higher bullish target to come in at around 1.2470. Bears in the EUR/USD should, however, wait for a significant break below 1.23.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

British Pound Falls On Brexit Concerns

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar ended the month of February higher against other major currencies such as the euro and pound sterling.

Recently, however, it was not only the dollar’s strength that drove major pairs lower. The British pound came under increased selling-pressure as U.K.’s Prime Minister Theresa May rejected a proposed Brexit draft from the EU. The document contained details about the U.K.’s exit from the EU bloc. May is due to deliver a speech tomorrow so the price action in the pound could be volatile or even messy ahead of that speech.

Today, traders will be watching the PCE Core (13:30 UTC), the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator and the Manufacturing ISM report (15:00 UTC). Furthermore, we have a second appearance from Fed Chairman Powell before the Senate Banking Committee today at 15:00 UTC, but the market could remain largely unaffected by today’s testimony.

EUR/USD: The euro dropped below 1.22 but still holds above 1.2165 which means that it finds itself within a crucial support zone. We have the Italian election on Sunday, so investors may take profits ahead of the weekend which could lead to further losses in this pair. As mentioned in previous analysis, the next crucial price level will be 1.2160 and for euro bears it would need a sustained break below that level in order to anticipate further downward momentum. A current resistance area is seen between 1.2250 and 1.23.

GBP/USD: The pound declined on Brexit concerns and we now expect a next lower target to be at 1.36. However, traders should be careful trading the pound as the price action in the pound could become messy ahead of May’s Brexit speech tomorrow. We now expect prices to accelerate between 1.40 and 1.36.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

EUR/USD And GBP/USD Bounce Off Resistance Levels; USD Stronger

Dear Traders,

Positive developments in Washington and hopes that the U.S. tax reform bill could pass the House have been supportive for the U.S. dollar. The greenback advanced against the euro and British pound, driving both EUR/USD and GBP/USD towards important support levels. The U.S. Senate adopted a fiscal 2018 budget resolution on Thursday that House GOP leaders agreed to accept.

On the flipside, the euro received no support from political developments in Spain. Madrid is finalizing plans to take control of Catalonia and to suspend the region’s autonomy. This step should keep the political situation in Spain tense.

The pound fell on disappointing U.K. data and speculation that the upcoming Bank of England rate hike could be a one-off. The BoE is forecast to hike rates on their next monetary policy meeting on November 2 but analysts doubt that there could be more than one rate increase in the medium-term. For the time being, we expect the pound to trade with volatile swings between 1.3250 and 1.30. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, for bearish momentum to accelerate the pound will have to break the 1.31-support significantly.

EUR/USD: As expected, the resistance level at 1.1850/60 has proved correct and the euro tested this barrier before reversing some of its gains. We now expect the pair to trade lower and focus on targets at 1.1770 and 1.17.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to hold a speech today but since this speech is only due after markets close, it will not affect the price action.

We wish you good trades and a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Profitable Trading Day For Sterling Bears

Dear Traders,

What a trading day – at least for sterling traders that sold pounds on the initial exit polls. Before we start to explain the reason for sterling’s knee-jerk decline let us allow to be enthusiastic about our short trade which has hit the profit target of 140 pips within less than one minute after initial results showed the U.K. faces a hung parliament. We hope that many of you were also able to capture the profitable downward move in the GBP/USD, even though some orders may have got triggered a few pips lower due to high slippage.

In sum, the U.K. vote is a disaster for Theresa May as the ruling Conservative Party is falling short of an overall majority. A hung parliament is considered a nightmare scenario for sterling investors as the U.K.’s course and Brexit path are much more uncertain now. We remember that Prime Minister Theresa May has called this snap election to win a comfortable majority but the opposite happened: the Conservatives are losing seats instead of winning seats. Consequently, May lost her bet. She will now need to resign or try to form a new government.

The pound dropped as much as 2.5 percent on the new round of political uncertainty. The 1.27-level served as a short-term support but if the pound drops below 1.2690 we could see further losses towards 1.26 and 1.24. If the pound climbs back above 1.28, we expect a resistance to come in at 1.2850 and 1.29.

The ECB decision and testimony from former FBI director Comey did little to impact the price action in the euro and U.S. dollar. The EUR/USD traded slightly lower on Comey’s testimony but remained within a narrow trading range between 1.1265 and 1.1180. As long as the euro remains confined to a sideways range of 1.1285 – 1.1150, there is nothing new to report.

With no major risk events being on tap today, the price action could be muted.

Have a good weekend and remember to secure your weekly profits.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Pound Depreciates Ahead Of Brexit Trigger

Dear Traders,

The biggest story on Tuesday was the trend reversal of the British pound. Sterling reversed shy of 1.26 and dropped sharply towards 1.2350. The sharp sell-off was due to the much-anticipated Brexit trigger which will happen today. The formal Brexit process starts around 13:30 local time when a letter personally signed by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May will arrive in Brussels. May signed the historical document on Tuesday evening and it will be handed to EU President Donald Tusk today. Tusk will read out a statement at 13:45 (GMT+2) while May will address the U.K. Parliament about the same time. The uncertainty over terms of Brexit could weigh on the pound in the medium-term, so traders should generally prepare for further losses as long as the prospects of U.K. monetary policy tightening remain far off.

From a technical perspective, sterling bears should wait for a bearish break below 1.2340 in order to sell the pound towards 1.21. Nonetheless, there is also a risk of a short squeeze in short-term time frames which could occur through profit taking. We see a crucial resistance zone between 1.2530 – 1.2570 and it would require a renewed break above that area to shift the bias in favor of the bulls.

EUR/USD

The shared currency was unable to break above 1.0875 and therefore fell back towards 1.08. For the time being, the euro is holding above the 1.08-mark but this may change quickly as the Brexit trigger poses a risk to the euro.

Bearish scenario: If the euro falls below 1.0780 it may heads for a test of the lower support-zones at 1.0760 and 1.07. A significant break below 1.0680 could lead to further losses towards 1.06.

Bullish scenario: A fresh break above 1.0875 may prompt euro bulls to buy euros towards 1.0920/50.

The risk is however to the downside.

 

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co