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Listless Price Development On Growing Risk-Aversion

Dear Traders,

The current market environment leaves much to be desired and given the listless price development it remains difficult for traders to take advantage of the muted market conditions. Even though the market should be repricing the prospects for higher interest rates in the USA, investors became far more risk-averse and showed reluctance to invest. So we will have to wait for an increase in risk appetite among investors in order to benefit from larger market movements and new trends.

Market participants await U.S. data on housing today for clues on the health of the economy. In the meantime, Fed policy makers continue to reinforce the likelihood of imminent rate increases with Fed President Bullard saying that he doesn’t see the U.K.’s vote on EU membership influencing the FOMC meeting that will be held the week before the referendum. Traders are currently pricing in a 30 percent chance of a rate hike in June and a 48 percent chance for a July hike. The focus could thus be on strong economic data, such as U.S. New Home Sales, scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC.If data fails to impress the dollar could weaken.

Before the U.S. data, U.K. Public Finances (8:30 UTC) and the German ZEW Survey (9:00 UTC) are scheduled for release.

Technically, the EUR/USD remains confined to a narrow trading range between 1.1250 and 1.1180. Let’s wait and see whether momentum accelerates after a break above or below this range.

The British pound ended the day unchanged against the U.S. dollar. We see a current resistance at 1.45 whereas a lower bound could currently be at 1.44.

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Market May Underestimate The Fed’s Hawkish Outlook

Dear Traders,

Despite the relatively low volatility in the currency market the U.S. dollar appreciated against all other major currencies. Trading conditions in the EUR/USD were overall quiet and short-traders had to be satisfied with smaller profits. Given the low volatility environment before the Easter break we do not expect the euro to show larger movements today even though U.S. Durable Goods Orders are scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT and forecasts point to a decline in the headline figure, which may trigger short-term pullbacks in the greenback.

Unlike the euro the GBP/USD showed more volatile swings which have unfortunately resulted in two false breakouts before sterling was able to break below 1.4150. According to the saying “all good things come in threes” a third sell order would have finally hit all profit targets but as we always abide by our trading rules we missed out on that profitable downward move.

Having digested the recent terror attacks in Brussels the interest of investors is once again increasingly directed towards the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Comments from Fed speakers seem to be suggesting a more hawkish outlook for interest rates than the market is currently pricing in. Fed Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said in an interview yesterday that policy makers should consider an interest rate increase at their next meeting in April. He sees the case for a move in April if another strong jobs report confirms that the labor market is improving, underlining the unchanged economic outlook and prospects for higher inflation. Bullard stressed that the committee might “raise rates more rapidly later on” if unemployment exceeds targets. Fed officials will now “look at April and see what the data looks like” when the next meet on April 26-27.

The focus will therefore shift to March Nonfarm payrolls data due for release next Friday April 1. As a rate hike next month has not been priced in, the dollar could rally strongly if the jobs report is strong.

U.K. Retail Sales (9:30 GMT) and U.S. Durable Goods Orders (12:30 GMT) are due for release today and could trigger the last volatile swings this week.

GBP/USD: Technically we see current resistances at 1.4155 and 1.4190, whereas lower support levels could be at 1.4035 and 1.40.

EUR/USD: Amidst low volatility conditions we see current resistances at 1.1205 and 1.1235. However, lower supports are seen at 1.1135 and 1.1110.

Please note that we will not provide any signal alerts on Good Friday and Easter Monday. We will be back on Tuesday, March 29.

We wish you a very Happy Easter!

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Sterling Trades Higher, Euro Remains Consolidated

Dear Traders,

The British pound knew only one direction yesterday: Upwards. U.K. employment data came in mixed, whereby wage growth slightly missed the market’s expectations, but sterling continued its recent recovery against the greenback and traded significantly above 1.52.

It was not a good day for euro traders. The euro traded consolidated between 1.0775 and 1.0705 and failed to show any profitable momentum. As long as there is no catalyst pushing the pair into a clear direction, the EUR/USD could be trading in a sideways range. If  the currency pair is able to break above 1.0790 we see next resistances at 1.0810 and 1.0830. Current supports are seen at 1.0705 and 1.0680.

EUR/USD

With prices above the current trading range, the euro may head for a test of the resistance line at around 1.0820/30, from where reversals may become more likely. Fresh bearish momentum is likely to increase with a break below 1.0680/70.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot12.11.15

There are no major important reports due for release today. U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT could only have a limited impact on the U.S. dollar. Furthermore, Fed presidents Bullard, Evans and Dudley are due to speak on economy and monetary policy.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Difficult Market Environment

Dear Traders,

The market environment is difficult for traders since global growth concerns and uncertainties about diverging monetary policies cloud the overall outlook. This uncertainty leads to risk-aversion,which can be seen in volatile but unsteady market swings. Both of our major pairs were lacking a clear direction yesterday and ended the trading day unchanged against the U.S. dollar. This meant that traders had to struggle with fake-outs and still have to be patient and wait for better market conditions.

Let’s have a look at the technical side:

EUR/USD

The euro was the worst performing currency recently and failed to provide profitable chances. On a monthly basis we see that the pair peaked at a high of 1.1460, but most of the period, it remained trading sideways between 1.1330 and 1.11. Those who are looking for long-term entries, should focus on the area above 1.1460/65 for buy orders and on the area below 1.10 for sell orders. For short-term investments, we still consider the 1.1280 level as an opportunity to buy the euro towards 1.1320/50. Short-entries, however, could be interesting below 1.1190 and below 1.1080. Remember that there is a key support at 1.1020.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot30.9.15

Today traders should watch the German Unemployment numbers, due for release at 7:55 GMT and the Eurozone CPI report, scheduled for release at 9:00 GMT.

GBP/USD

The British pound weakened eight consecutive trading days but found a slight support around 1.5130. The trend is our friend and we should bear in mind, that GBP may be vulnerable to further losses, but there could be a lower support area at around 1.5110 – 1.5090. If sterling declines significantly below 1.5130, we will focus on the 1.51-level, which could prompt the currency for a recovery. However, above 1.5210, chances are that sterling bulls drive the cable towards 1.5250 and 1.5285.

U.K. Gross Domestic Product is scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT today.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot30.9.15

The most important piece of economic U.S. data will be the release of ADP’s employment change report (12:15 GMT). Market participants pay close attention to this report as it is considered to be a leading indicator for nonfarm payrolls.

Furthermore, FOMC members Yellen and Bullard are scheduled to speak on Community Banking today at 19:00 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service http://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co