Posts

Watch Out For Higher Volatility Today

Dear Traders,

As expected, there wasn’t much volatility in the Forex market Wednesday with the euro and pound remaining within narrow price ranges. The GBP/USD was able to stabilize above 1.32 following an upbeat U.K. Services PMI report but the pair rejected the 1.3250-hurdle, at least for now. Generally speaking, the medium-term outlook for the pound is still bullish as market participants prepare for a potential rate hike in August. Odds for an August rate hike are currently at 53 percent.

BoE Governor Carney speaks in Newcastle today at 10:00 UTC and any comments on monetary policy could get the pound moving.

The euro appears to lose some of its downside momentum while we see a higher likelihood of an imminent break above 1.1690 and possibly even 1.1720 in the short-term. The euro’s slight upward bias was also backed by reports that some ECB members are seeing a rate hike in late 2019 as ‘too late’.

From the U.S. we have the ADP report, scheduled for release at 12:15 UTC, followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing index at 14:00 UTC.

Last but not least, we will pay attention to the FOMC meeting minutes due at 18:00 UTC, which are expected to have a positive tone. If the minutes signal further steepening in the appropriate policy path, the dollar could receive some fresh boost.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

BoE Decision: Is August Rate Hike Still In The Cards?

Dear Traders,

The British pound ended the trading day little changed against the U.S. dollar after compromise has been reached between the U.K. government and Parliament on the progress of the EU Brexit bill. The pound’s rise to a high of 1.3217 proved short-lived and traders now wonder whether the 1.3140-level could give way to further bearish momentum. A lower target could be at 1.3080.

Today, all eyes will turn to the Bank of England rate decision at 11:00 UTC but there aren’t any actual expectations for a move at this meeting. The big question is rather whether the BoE begins to lay the groundwork for a possible rate hike in August. This is, however, not the most likely scenario.

After that rate decision, BoE Governor Mark Carney is due for his annual Mansion House speech and this may actually turn out to be a more proactive driver for the pound. Carney’s speech will be widely-watched for clues or hints around his expectations for the UK economy.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

Profitable Sell-Off In EUR/USD And GBP/USD

Dear Traders,

After several days of sluggish price fluctuations, yesterday has proved to be a profitable trading day in particular for short traders of the EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

The British pound continued its slide versus the U.S. dollar on the back of worse-than-expected U.K. inflation data. The annual CPI fell to 2.4 percent from 2.5 percent while the core CPI fell to 2.1 from 2.3 percent. Lower inflation could keep interest rates lower for longer with the Bank of England being in no rush to tighten monetary policy sooner rather than later. Thus, BoE rate hike expectations are pushed back to November.

The pound marked a fresh support at 1.3305 from where a slight recovery started. As long as pullbacks are limited to 1.34 and 1.3450, sterling bears might retain control.

The euro fell below 1.17 after the weak PMI reading put further pressure on the single currency. We now focus on the 1.1810-level which could act as a short-term resistance. A break below 1.1650 could open the door for further losses towards 1.1620 and 1.1550.

The FOMC Minutes had only a limited impact on the dollar’s price action. With the markets widely anticipating a Fed rate hike in June the minutes were not expected to reveal anything new. The only note in the statement that weighed on the dollar was that “it was premature to conclude that inflation would remain at levels around 2 percent”.

Today we have U.K. Retail Sales scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC. Furthermore, BoE Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak at the BoE Markets Forum in London.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

GBP/USD: Preparing For Potential Short Squeeze Scenario

Dear Traders,

After the absence of a major driver or catalyst in the markets, today is loaded with market-worthy data and thus, traders are bracing for higher volatility in most major currency pairs. Top event risk will be the Bank of England rate decision with the BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report. While the BoE is unlikely to raise interest rates at this meeting, it is the inflation report and the press conference with BoE Governor Carney that garner most attention.

The Bank of England will announce its rate decision alongside the release of the central bank’s inflation report at 11:00 UTC. The press conference will follow 30 minutes later.

Following the complete U-turn in rate hike expectations out of the BoE, the central bank has little choice but to signal a rate hike in August to maintain the bank’s credibility. The risk is therefore tilted to the upside with a potential short squeeze scenario in the GBP/USD. If the BoE, however, disappoint in terms of rate hike speculation deviating from their hawkish bias, the pound will further fall.

Another, no less important, report will be the April Consumer Inflation Report (CPI) from the U.S., which is due shortly after the BoE’s decision at 12:30 UTC. The Federal Reserve debate over a fourth rate hike in 2018 is still ongoing, which is why inflation figures could affect current rate hike speculation. Thus, a surprise in CPI data could have a major impact on the dollar, paving the way for some profit-taking or maybe an extension of the dollar rally.

Let’s take a look at the technical picture:

GBP/USD

The cable traded consolidated between roughly 1.36 and 1.35. The short-term bias is slightly bullish, with the focus now being on an uptrend channel between 1.3615 and 1.3515.  A break above 1.3810 could open the door for accelerated bullish momentum towards 1.40. On the bottom side, the 1.35-support remains a crucial price barrier. If the pound drops below 1.3480 we may see a drift towards 1.3330.

EUR/USD: The euro still trades around the falling trendline of its recent downtrend channel. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, the 1.19-barrier could prove an important hurdle for euro bulls now. A break above 1.1910 may encourage bulls for a test of 1.1950. Today’s price action will, however, hinge on the appetite for USD, which is why we focus on U.S. CPI data.

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

 

BoE Super Thursday To Provide Trading Opportunity For Sterling Traders

Dear Traders,

It’s Super Thursday at the Bank of England, which means we get a rate decision along with the Quarterly Inflation Report and comments from BoE Governor Mark Carney. Today’s meeting is the most important event this week and sterling traders prepare for volatile swings around the monetary policy announcement. The big question among market participants is how hawkish the BoE might be towards the end of this year. The market is fully pricing in a rate increase at the BoE’s Super Thursday in November while market participants see a 50/50 chance of an earlier rate hike in May. If evidence points to a rate rise in May, the pound will rally and may find its way back to 1.42. However, if the tone in today’s statement is not as hawkish as traders are hoping, the pound will fall.

The focus will also be on the inflation report and if economic growth and inflation forecasts are revised higher, GBP/USD could recover some of its recent losses.

There is also the possibility of a muted response following today’s statement. Brexit risks continue to cause uncertainty about the outlook and if those risks have not changed substantially, the market’s reaction to the statement could be muted.

We will know more today at 12:00 UTC.

GBP/USD: The cable found some support around 1.3850 and if this barrier is breached to the downside we expect further losses towards 1.3750. For bullish momentum to accelerate, it would however need a sustained break above 1.40.

EUR/USD: The euro broke out of its recent sideways trend channel and fell towards 1.2240. The break below 1.23 came despite Angela Merkel’s deal with the SPD to form a great coalition in Germany. Technically speaking, the chances are now in favor of further downside potential driving the pair towards 1.2220 and 1.2170. If the euro rises back above 1.2350, bulls may take over control.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

USD Recovers Ground But Bear In Mind That It’s Turn-Around Tuesday

This content is for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DAX and EUR/USD, GBP/USD, DAX members only.
Log In Register