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GBP/USD: Further Weakness Ahead? Focus On A Break Of 1.42

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Dear Traders,

Not much has changed since yesterday and trading was relatively quiet. The EUR/USD traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar despite a weaker Ifo report. Neither the fact that it was the lowest reading in almost one year, nor cautious comments from Mario Draghi, who is trying to convince investors that the ECB is willing to act if needed, could weaken the euro. On the contrary, the common currency rose above 1.0845 and tested the next resistance level at 1.0860. If the euro is able to break above 1.0865/75 we will shift our focus to the 1.09-level again. Ahead of the FOMC statement on Wednesday, we expect the EUR/USD to remain within its current range between 1.0940/80 and 1.0770/15.

Despite the low level of volatility our short-entry in the GBP/USD turned out to be somewhat unfortunate and any further bearish momentum was blocked by the recent support level at 1.4230. Sterling traders should now pay attention to a break of 1.42. If GBP falls significantly below that level, we could see the pair sliding towards lower levels at 1.4155, 1.4130 and even 1.41.

Bank of England governor Mark Carney will testify to lawmakers on financial stability today at 10:45 GMT. Renewed concerns about a potential Brexit and the U.K. outlook may increase the pressure on the British pound.

The most important piece of U.S. data on today’s calendar will be Consumer Confidence, due for release at 15:00 GMT, which may have a short-term impact on the USD.

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Will Payrolls Confirm The Fed’s Hawkish View?

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Dear Traders,

As expected, the U.K. inflation report has been the catalyst for the the big downward move in the British pound yesterday. The pound dropped like a stone and provided short-traders a nice profit. The Bank of England indicated it remains cautious about raising rates and lowered its growth and inflation forecasts. The MPC minutes showed that only one member voted for a rate hike this month, with the majority saying underlying price pressures were not strong enough to warrant a rate increase. Despite the dovish report, BoE governor Mark Carney signaled in a later interview that investors should be ready for tightening in 2016. “At some point, rates are going to move. It’s not today, unfortunately”, he said.

The euro took a breather and traded directionless sideways. Traders had to struggle with fake-outs, eliminating previous gains in the EUR/USD.

Today all eyes will be on the Non-Farm Payrolls report, scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT. The majority of economists expect payrolls to rise by a larger amount than the previous month. Investors are waiting for a confirmation of a healthy U.S. growth, justifying an imminent rate increase. Dollar bulls would get a strong signal when payrolls exceed 200k, average hourly earnings increase and the unemployment rate remains either steady or shows a decline. On the other side, if the market will be caught by surprise and labor market data disappoints, the USD could fall quickly and forcefully.

Before payrolls are due for release,  U.K. data such as Manufacturing Production and Trade Balance (9:30 GMT) could impact on the pound sterling.

We wish you a wonderful weekend and a profitable trading day!

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

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The Market Has Lost Steam

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Dear Traders,

Welcome to a new trading week.

Last Friday ended with non-volatile sideways moves. Both of our major currency pairs traded within narrow ranges and failed to offer traders a profitable trading environment. Generally it seems as if the market has lost steam, given the reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve tightening in 2015. In order to restore investor’s confidence, the market would need a clear signal from central bankers what to expect in the near-term. In the meantime, traders must be patient and try to profit from smaller fluctuations.

The week’s focus will be on ECB meeting on Thursday. The European Central Bank is not expected to increase stimulus this month, but expectations generally tend towards an extension of QE in the coming months. Apart from the ECB Rate Decision, the only important piece of eurozone data will be Friday’s PMI report.

There are no major important U.S. data scheduled for release this week. Some housing market reports are due for release but these reports are unlikely to determine the greenback’s further direction.

On Tuesday, traders should pay attention to speeches from Fed-chair Janet Yellen and BoE Governor Carney, which may impact on the currencies.

Finally, U.K. Retail Sales are scheduled for release on Thursday. Retail Sales are forecast to show a higher output in September and increase the chances of a break above 1.55.

We wish you a profitable trading week!

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro with tailwind, sterling may have bottomed out

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Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s trading has been relatively quiet. After the euro refrained from taking any dips below 1.1145, euro bulls finally got their chance to gain some pips after EUR/USD broke above 1.1215. The British pound, however, followed its downward trend against the U.S. dollar and fell toward its recent support at 1.5155.

Today, traders should focus on eurozone data, such as German Consumer Prices, due for release at 12:00 GMT and important U.S. data, scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT – Consumer Confidence. Furthermore, Bank of England Governor Carney is scheduled to speak in London at 19:40 GMT, which could impact the pound sterling.

EUR/USD

While we generally expect the euro to trade lower in the long-run, the pair is currently heading upwards because of less-dovish comments of ECB policymakers, downplaying the possibility of further QE. Nonetheless, today’s inflation data will be interesting to watch, as the report could have a significant impact on the currency. If the German CPI indicates further weakness, the euro could come under increasing pressure.

Next resistances are seen at 1.1275, 1.1320 and 1.1360.

Supports could be at 1.1220, 1.1185 and 1.1120.

GBP/USD

The pound showed further weakness versus the greenback despite expectations that the BoE will not be far behind the Federal Reserve in relation of raising interest rates. Speculations are that the BoE could start tightening by February 2016.

If GBP breaks below 1.5135 a next support could be at 1.51 and 1.5080.

We see a current resistance at 1.5210. Above 1.5220, GBP may head for another test of 1.5260 and 1.5285.

U.K. Mortgage Approvals and Net Consumer Credit are scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT, reports which could have only a limited impact on the currency.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Focus on NFP report

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Dear Traders,

Last Friday was characterized by an ongoing demand for U.S. dollars. The pound sterling stopped its fall at 1.5135, from where it recovered slightly. Given the oversold situation in the GBP/USD, chances are that GBP may head for another test of 1.5260 and 1.5285. The EUR/USD has found a support at around 1.1125/10. In order to revive fresh bearish momentum, the pair would need to break below 1.1080. Above 1.1220, euro bulls could drive the pair towards 1.1270 and 1.1315, but traders should be careful with any buy-attempts, as the focus is on Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls report and profit taking is likely to occur ahead of the report before investors could jump back into dollar long positions.

After Yellen’s hawkish comments last Thursday, market participants will watch the NFP report closely. The market is pricing in a rate increase by the end of the year, so depending on the details of the payrolls report, an October tightening could be the case. On the other hand, if the report falls short of expectations, we could see a short rally in the EUR and GBP.

This week starts off with interesting U.S. data such as PCE indices, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT followed by Pending Home Sales due for release at 14:00 GMT.

Important economic reports this week:

Tuesday – German Consumer Prices and U.S. Consumer Confidence

Wednesday – German Unemployment and Eurozone Consumer Price Index

Thursday – U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index

Friday – Non-Farm Payrolls

Moreover, central bank officials are scheduled to speak this week, including Yellen, Williams, Dudley and BoE governor Carney.

We wish you a good start to this week.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co