Choppy Swings

We saw some choppy swings on Tuesday which also provided some profit for traders. The U.S. dollar traded lower against the euro and pound but ended the day virtually unchanged. Market participants speculate on a more restrictive monetary policy after a potential debt deal in the U.S. This could slow the economy and thus, increase recession fears, in case the White House plans to reduce government spending.

Technical view

GBP/USD: The pound climbed back above 1.24 but struggles to hold that level. If 1.23 breaks to the downside, we expect further losses towards 1.22. On the topside the next resistance is seen at 1.2520.

EUR/USD: The euro tends to trade downwards. As long as it remains below 1.08, the next target will be the crucial support at around 1.05.


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Our trading ideas for today 31/5/23:


Long @ 1.0725

Short @ 1.0680


Long @ 1.2430

Short @ 1.2370

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15860

Short @ 15770

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U.S. Dollar Mixed After FOMC

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar produced a mixed reaction to the FOMC statement and unfortunately, we were caught on the wrong foot when we tried participating in yesterday’s choppy waters. While the dollar showed some pullback on the initial release of the statement, that rebound proved short-lived with the dollar finishing the trading day cautiously higher against the euro and British pound.

The FOMC announcement didn’t really disappoint dollar bulls with the Fed upgrading its view on inflation, even though not so much on economic growth. The chances of a rate hike next month are at 100 percent while odds for a September and December hike remain unchanged.

Trading the choppy swings yesterday proved unsuccessful for day traders but that’s trading and these days can happen.

The euro faces some event risk today with the Eurozone Consumer Price Index, scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC. If CPI data disappoints we might see a drop towards 1.19 in the EUR/USD. Euro bulls, however, should watch out for price breaks above 1.2030.

The British pound dropped to a low of 1.3554 in the aftermath of the FOMC. If the GBP/USD remains below 1.3620 we expect the cable to extend its losses versus the greenback.

From the U.S. we have the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC today.

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