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All Eyes On The ECB Rate Cut

The Bank of Canada cut interest rates from 5% to 4.75% with the result of an appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar and thus, a rise of the USD/CAD pair.

Today, all eyes will turn to the European Central Bank decision at 12:15 GMT. The ECB press conference is 30 minutes later.

ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to announce a 25bp interest rate cut after rates have been held at a peak of 4 percent for nine months. The euro would naturally weaken in this case but since the move is largely priced in, for the euro to weaken further, it would need a ‘dovish cut’ with a hint at a second cut at the July meeting. In case of a ‘hawkish cut’, meaning that the ECB provides no further clues on future rate cuts and timing, the euro could be due for further upside. In any case, there is potential for heightened volatility today, which is why traders brace for some profitable swings.

EUR/USD

Looking at the weekly chart, we see that the pair is still captured within an overall lasting sideways trend with no markable breakouts. Breaking above 1.09 could lead to a test of the 1.0950-resistance area. The 200-EMA oscillates currently at 1.0973 (blue line), providing another crucial resistance. On the downside, the 1.08-support remains crucial and we recommend traders to wait for a break below 1.0760 in order to sell with the bears.

 

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Our trading ideas for today 6/6/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0915

Short @ 1.0830

 

Settings today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40-50

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

 

ECB Decision: Euro’s Outlook Remains Neutral

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony has caused some volatility through the market and the U.S. dollar weakened on the back of falling U.S. Treasury rates. The reason for the downward tilt in the greenback was merely that there was nothing new to report, even though Powell’s remarks leaned towards the hawkish side.

Tomorrow’s NFP report could however surprise and if U.S. labor market data come in stronger-than-expected, it could trigger a shift in market pricing and thus, an upward move in the U.S. dollar.

Today, the European Central Bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting. Investors will however closely monitor ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conferences following the decision. Lagarde is expected to embrace a neutral stance, even though disappointing growth data in the EU may argue for a more dovish stance. Any signals about potential earlier rate cuts would weigh on the euro, whereas a delay of any potential easing measures could spark a hawkish repricing and thus, strengthen the euro.

The ECB’s decision is due at 13:15 UTC, followed by the press conference 30 minutes later.

EUR/USD – Still Sideways

Despite its recent upward tick, the currency pair still finds itself below 1.10 (blue EMA) and therefore still sideways. In order to speak of an upside breakout of the recent sideways range we would need to see a rise above 1.1050. As long as the pair remains between 1.07 and 1.10, the outlook is neutral.

GBP/USD – Struggling With Resistances

The cable is struggling to overcome a resistance at around 1.2750. We recommend traders to wait for a sustained upside break above 1.28 (red ellipse) to engage in an upside swing. On the downside, the 1.2550-area (orange EMA) could act as a support.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

ECB Decision Takes Center Stage

All eyes will turn to the European Central Bank decision today at 13:15 GMT where the central bank is expected to stand pat on rates with inflation still above target. While inflation in the euro area has maintained a downward trajectory during the last year, ECB policymakers are wary of upside risks to inflation. The biggest threat might be the latest crisis in the Middle East with a temporary supply shock posing a risk to European businesses.

Traders will focus on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press briefing at 13:45 GMT for an updated view on the economy and inflation outlook.

The risk for the euro is to the downside. For the common currency to recover, Lagarde would need to sound surprisingly hawkish, dashing hopes for an ECB rate cut anywhere near as much as what markets have priced in. Markets expect the ECB to cut rates in June. If the communication among policymakers is, however, not clear, the euro could end up drifting sideways.

We will focus on a break below 1.0820 and further 1.08 in order to sell the euro towards 1.0750 and 1.07. Above 1.0935, the focus shifts back towards the 1.10-threshold.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 25/1/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0910

Short @ 1.0870

 

Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Greenback Strengthens

We were able to pocket some profit on our last trading days before the summer trading break.

Volatility picked up and the U.S. dollar strengthened. What happened at the ECB yesterday?

The central bank raised rates as expected. At the following press conference, ECB President Lagarde remained non-committal when asked about the possibility of a hike in September. This was seen as a dovish sign given Lagarde had been rather hawkish previously when pressed on future rate hikes. The euro consequently dropped below 1.1020 towards 1.0950 – the current support area. If 1.0930 remains unbreeched we may see some bullish movement.

Later today at 13:30 UTC we will have the PCE index scheduled for release which could have an impact on the U.S. dollar.

We will save our monthly profits today.

Have a good weekend!

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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ECB Decision: How Will The Euro React?

It’s ECB decision day and it won’t be an easy task for ECB policy makers. The euro rose to a high of 1.0273 in anticipation of a bigger-than-expected rate increase today. Traders are now placing almost 50 percent odds on a half-point hike. And while we know that the market often gets ahead of itself, it may need to correct premature assumptions according to the old adage “buy the rumour but sell the fact”. There is another crisis looming in the EU: Italy’s government appears once again to be on the brink of collapsing. The markets would want to see Prime Minister Mario Draghi remaining in power because he brought stability to Italy. His departure could force the ECB to dilute or delay details of its new bond crisis tool. The tool is intended to curb unwarranted spikes in sovereign yields. If Draghi goes, Italian bond yields will rise on heightened political uncertainty. The political turmoil in Italy could thus complicate the European Central Bank’s efforts to raise interest rates for the first time in a decade.

How will the euro react?

The common currency will rise if the ECB raises interest rates by 50bp today while signaling a faster-than-expected pace of policy tightening. However, there is a risk that a bigger hike damages the ECB’s future guidance, a risk the central bank may be unwilling to take. Even in case of a euro rise, it will probably be limited.

The euro will fall if the ECB hikes by only 25bp.

However, the devil is in the detail, so we will brace for heightened volatility today and wish everyone good trades.

The ECB rate decision is scheduled for 12:15 UTC. ECB President Christine Lagarde is due to speak at 14:15 UTC.

EUR/USD: Potential SHS-pattern to predict upcoming losses?

As long as the euro trades below 1.0280, a head-shoulders-pattern could come into play as soon as the pair falls below 1.01. Another test of the parity level would be a next target for euro bears. The pattern becomes void if the euro breaks above 1.0275.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

 

Daily Forex, DAX And Crypto Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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EZB Zinsentscheidung: Wie wird der Euro reagieren?

Heute ist der Tag der EZB-Entscheidung, und es wird keine leichte Aufgabe für die Währungshüter der EZB sein. Der Euro stieg in Erwartung einer unerwartet starken Zinserhöhung auf ein Hoch von 1,0273. Händler rechnen nun mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von fast 50 Prozent für eine Anhebung um einen halben Prozentpunkt. Und da wir aber wissen, dass der Markt oft vorschnell handelt, muss er möglicherweise verfrühte Annahmen korrigieren, gemäß dem alten Sprichwort “buy the rumour but sell the fact”. In der EU zeichnet sich derweil eine weitere Krise ab: Italiens Regierung scheint wieder einmal kurz vor dem Zusammenbruch zu stehen. Die Märkte würden es gerne sehen, wenn Ministerpräsident Mario Draghi an der Macht bliebe, denn er hat Italien Stabilität gebracht. Sein Abgang könnte die EZB dazu zwingen, die Details ihres neuen Kriseninstruments für Anleihen zu verwässern oder zu verzögern. Mit diesem Instrument sollen ungerechtfertigte Anstiege der Staatsanleiherenditen eingedämmt werden. Wenn Draghi geht, werden die italienischen Anleiherenditen aufgrund der zunehmenden politischen Unsicherheit steigen. Die politischen Unruhen in Italien könnten somit die Bemühungen der Europäischen Zentralbank erschweren, die Zinssätze zum ersten Mal seit einem Jahrzehnt anzuheben.

Wie wird der Euro reagieren?

Die Gemeinschaftswährung wird steigen, wenn die EZB heute die Zinssätze um 50 Basispunkte anhebt und gleichzeitig signalisiert, dass sie ihre Geldpolitik schneller als erwartet straffen wird. Es besteht jedoch die Gefahr, dass eine größere Anhebung die künftigen Leitlinien der EZB beeinträchtigt, ein Risiko, das die Zentralbank möglicherweise nicht eingehen will. Selbst wenn der Euro also steigen sollte, wird dies wahrscheinlich nur begrenzt möglich sein.

Der Euro wird fallen, wenn die EZB die Zinsen um lediglich 25 Basispunkte anhebt.

Der Teufel steckt jedoch im Detail, so dass wir uns heute auf eine erhöhte Volatilität einstellen und allen gute Trades wünschen.

Die Zinsentscheidung der EZB ist für 14:15 Uhr angesetzt. EZB-Präsidentin Christine Lagarde wird um 16:15 UTC sprechen.

EUR/USD: Mögliches SKS-Muster zur Vorhersage bevorstehender Verluste?

Solange der Euro unter 1,0280 gehandelt wird, könnte ein Schulter-Kopf-Muster ausgespielt werden, sobald das Paar unter 1,01 fällt. Ein weiterer Test des Paritätsniveaus wäre ein nächstes Ziel für die Euro-Bären. Das Muster wird jedoch hinfällig, wenn der Euro über 1,0275 ausbricht.

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

Wenn auch Sie wissen möchten, wo wir unseren Stopp-Loss und Take-Profit setzen und ob wir an einem bestimmten Tag handeln oder nicht, sowie wie wir unsere Positionen managen, dann abonnieren Sie unseren Signalservice.

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Shifting Era – Things Just Won’t Be The Same

Things just won’t be the same – This could be the conclusion of the European Central Bank annual forum in Sintra, Portugal. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that she doesn’t think “that we are going to go back to that environment of low inflation.” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell explained how forces including globalization, aging demographics, low productivity and technological developments are no longer keeping prices in check. “We’re learning to deal with it” Powell said.

Lagarde reckoned the shifting era will herald yet more upheaval and “will probably change continuously towards a system that we are not certain about”.

“We’ve lived in that world where inflation was not a problem,” Powell said. “I think we understand better how little we understand about inflation.” These are the words of a central bank head.

In other words, and in the way we see it, this could mean for the Western world that we will learn to deal with surging consumer prices, threats to economic growth and the possibility of further energy disruptions.

EUR/USD: The pair headed south towards 1.04. Focus shifts back to a potential bearish break of 1.0340. Next targets are 1.02 and 1.00. A current resistance remains intact at around 1.06.

GBP/USD: Below 1.24, bears are in control with the focus turning to a potential test of 1.19.

DAX: If the index remains below 13300, we expect a fall towards 12700.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Major Risk Events Loom Before Easter Holiday

This holiday-shortened week is loaded with economic event risk. Before the Easter holiday and the French presidential election on Sunday, market participants are eyeing inflation risk with the U.S. CPI scheduled for release on Tuesday. On Thursday, the European Central Bank will deliver its interest rate decision while no monetary policy changes are expected. Nonetheless, traders should expect some hawkish commentary for the euro.

While other major central banks are already tightening monetary policy, the ECB seems to be behind the curve. Market participants brought forward their calls for interest rate hikes, now seeing moves in September and December. The format of Thursday’s ECB press conference is yet to be decided after ECB President Christine Lagarde tested positive for Covid-19.

EUR/USD – Opening gap

The euro opened higher versus the U.S. dollar this week amid some relief over the French election. However, the upside gap was closed in the early morning hours of trading.

Technically, the pair finds itself in oversold territory which is making corrections towards 1.11 more likely ahead of Thursday’s policy decision. However, there is also potential for disappointment, so potential gains might be limited. A crucial support is seen around 1.08.

GBP/USD – Will the 1.30-support hold?

The cable slid below 1.30 but found some halt at around 1.2980. If sterling bulls are unable to push the pair back above 1.31, we expect further losses and a test of 1.29 in the near-term.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Anschnallen für eine volatile Woche

Der U.S. Dollar hat gegenüber seinen wichtigsten Gegenspielern in den letzten Tagen eine starke Performance hingelegt was an den gestiegenen Zinsspekulationen liegt. Der Markt hat damit begonnen, fünf Zinserhöhungen der Federal Reserve in diesem Jahr einzupreisen. Diese Woche stehen die geldpolitischen Entscheidungen der Europäischen Zentralbank und der Bank von England an (beide Donnerstag), welche die Marktstimmung in den kommenden Tagen prägen werden.

Sollten die EZB und die BoE in die Fußstapfen der Fed treten und eine zunehmend hawkische Tendenz zeigen, könnten wir eine Stärkung des Euros und des britischen Pfunds erleben. Händler werden sich in den kommenden Tagen auf eine erhöhte Volatilität sowohl beim EUR/USD als auch beim GBP/USD einstellen.

Last but not least werden die Augen der Händler am Freitag auf den U.S. Arbeitsmarktbericht gerichtet sein. Hierbei kommt die meiste Aufmerksamkeit dem durchschnittlichen Stundenlohn zu, der bei 5,2 Prozent im Jahresvergleich von 4,7 Prozent zuvor erwartet wird. Ein solides Ergebnis könnte den U.S. Dollar unterstützen.

EZB-Entscheidung – „Sehr unterschiedliche Situationen“

Nach dem angezogenen Straffungskurs der Fed einerseits und der Bank von England andererseits, welche sich diese Woche auf ihre zweite Zinserhöhung in Folge vorbereitet, haben die Anleger auch bereits die Wetten auf eine Zinserhöhung seitens der EZB noch in diesem Jahr angekurbelt. EZB Präsidentin Christine Lagarde hat sich jedoch gegen diese hawkischen Erwartungen gewehrt und die „sehr unterschiedlichen Situationen“ hervorgehoben, denen sich die drei Volkswirtschaften gegenübersehen. Die EZB wird versuchen, ein vernünftiges Gleichgewicht zu halten zwischen ihrer Bereitschaft, den Kurs aufgrund eines potenziellen Inflationsdruck zu ändern, und ihrer Vorsicht, nicht vorzeitig zu straffen. Das Wirtschaftswachstum hat sich Ende letzten Jahres stark verlangsamt und der Internationale Währungsfonds hat bereits seinen Ausblick für 2022 für die Eurozone gesenkt.  Zudem haben sich die zunehmenden Spannungen an der russisch-ukrainischen Grenze als neues Risiko herauskristallisiert.

Es wird daher erwartet, dass die EZB ihre zurückhaltende Haltung mittelfristig beibehalten wird. Lagarde wird wahrscheinlich wiederholen, dass die Zentralbank im Jahr 2022 aller Voraussicht nach keine Zinserhöhungen vornehmen wird. Jedoch wird sie vermutlich keine ablehnende Haltung gegenüber den Markterwartungen für eine Straffung im Jahr 2023 zeigen. Sollten die Zeichen der EZB allerdings NICHT GEGEN eine Zinsanhebung in 2022 stehen, so wäre dies ein Signal dafür, dass die EZB vermehrt zu einer falkenhaften Haltung tendiert.

Unsere technische Prognose für EUR/USD im Vorfeld der EZB-Entscheidung: Leicht bullisch mit einem nächsten Ziel bei 1.1220-30.

BoE-Entscheidung – Aggressiverer Weg der Zinserhöhungen?

Die Bank von England wird die Zinsen voraussichtlich am Donnerstag auf 0,5 Prozent anheben. Dieser Schritt könnte der BoE auch die Tür öffnen, um mit der Verkleinerung ihrer Bilanz zu beginnen, indem sie die Reinvestition abgelaufener Anleihen stoppt. Nach dieser Sitzung im Februar wetten Händler darauf, dass die BoE die Zinsen im Juni auf 1 Prozent anheben wird. Da Händler die Zentralbank jedoch als zunehmend unberechenbar bezeichnen, kann alles passieren und Händler werden sich sowohl auf falkenhafte als auch auf weniger falkenhafte Ergebnisse vorbereiten.

Unsere technische Prognose für GBP/USD im Vorfeld der BoE-Entscheidung: Bullisch oberhalb von 1.3450, nächstes Ziel dann bei 1.35.

 

Wir wünschen gute Trades!

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

Copyright © 2022 MaiMarFX.

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ECB Decision Day: No Chance For Big Moves?

The U. S. dollar ticked slightly higher Wednesday and sent both of our major currency pairs to short-term support levels which have proved to hold so far.

Elsewhere, we got a profitable breakout in the DAX yesterday after the 15700-support level was significantly breached to the downside. Our short entry at 15790 has thus proved highly profitable. Lower supports are now seen at 15430 and 15300.

It’s decision day at the European Central Bank. The European economy is growing faster than was anticipated, but is it enough for policy makers to phase out the central bank’s crisis support? Maybe, but maybe not at this time. The ECB is seen to have more flexibility than the Federal Reserve in maneuvering monetary policy. ECB policy makers could thus be on track to retain the current policy. For the euro to rise it would require a clear exit strategy and a material shift in the ECB’s forward guidance. If the central bank retains its current monetary policy path, the euro could fall on disappointment.

Generally speaking, we do not expect fireworks today. We will prepare for potential price breakouts but do not anticipate exaggerated movements.

The most interesting part for traders will be ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference due at 12:30 UTC.

EUR/USD

The pair has been in a downward trend channel since May 2021. Based on that channel we anticipate lower targets to be at 1.1750 and 1.17. Euro bulls on the other side should watch out for a break above 1.1910 in order to buy euros towards 1.1980.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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