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Trump Speech Leaves Investors Unimpressed

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Dear Traders,

Well, as a trader, we were expecting much more from Donald Trump’s address to Congress. The market reaction to Trump’s speech was muted as specific details on infrastructure have been elusive. Trump promised to spend as much as 1 trillion dollars on infrastructure but he did not specify the timing and what spending he is referring to. While there were no details, Trump’s speech was notably less confrontational than his inaugural address. The U.S. dollar slightly strengthened following the speech but large market movements are still yet to come.

The pound sterling dropped below 1.2380 and we now expect the GBP/USD to trend lower towards 1.2260/20. The pound will now need to break below 1.2340 but before we could see accelerating bearish momentum it may head back towards a test of the current resistance at around 1.2430.

The U.K. PMI Manufacturing is scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC and could have a minor impact on the pound.

The euro depreciated against the greenback after failing to break above 1.0630. We will now wait for a sustained break below 1.0520 before anticipating further losses. Below 1.0520 we could see the EUR/USD tumbling towards 1.0450. On the upside we expect the 1.0620-level to lend a current resistance to the currency pair.

From the Eurozone, we have the German Unemployment report scheduled for release today at 8:55 UTC followed by the German Consumer Price Index at 13:00 UTC.

The most interesting piece of U.S. economic data will be the ISM Manufacturing Index due at 15:00 UTC which could have a significant impact on the dollar, provided that there is a surprise.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Traders Prepare For Volatile Swings This Week

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you to a new trading week. Financial markets are dominated by uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump’s administration, prompting large investors to adopt a wait-and-see stance. The U.S. dollar came under further pressure after Trump’s order halting some immigration, causing geopolitical tensions. Risk aversion has therefore led to a recent sideways trend with both major currency pairs trading in relatively narrow trading ranges. This phase of trendless and uncertain markets makes it difficult for day traders to benefit from limited fluctuations and the lack of price breakouts.

This week’s major event risks might bring some new momentum to the markets and trigger profitable breakouts. The economic calendar is very busy in terms of market moving data and traders await high volatility throughout the entire week. The week starts off with the German Consumer Price report, scheduled for release today at 13:00 UTC which could lend a support to the euro. On Tuesday, the Eurozone Consumer Price report will be important to watch while an upbeat report could lead to speculation that the European Central Bank might start to reduce its asset purchases in the near future. With regard to top-tier U.S. economic data, the FOMC rate decision and the Non-Farm Payrolls report (Friday) will take center stage this week. The FOMC committee will deliver an update on its policy stance on Wednesday and while the FOMC statement is expected to be relatively upbeat, the fiscal policy uncertainty may frustrate the greenback’s recovery.

For sterling traders, the most interesting event will be the Bank of England‘s ‘Super Thursday‘ which may shape expectations for the near-term outlook for sterling. The BoE releases its Quarterly Inflation Report alongside its monthly monetary policy decision. If BoE policymakers show greater willingness to drop their dovish tone and gradually move away from their easing cycle, the pound could be vulnerable to further gains, heading for a test of 1.2780/90.

Important data for today:

13:00 EUR German CPI data

13:30 USA PCE Report

15:00 USA Pending Home Sales

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Is The U.S. Dollar Poised For A New Round Of Strength

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar regained some of its strength, pushing the euro and cable lower. While the euro stopped its fall slightly above 1.0560, the British pound turned out to be Monday’s worst performer and dropped towards 1.2385. British companies are increasingly pessimistic about the future outlook and with the Brexit debate intensifying, the pound remains vulnerable to larger losses. We currently see a higher likelihood of a bearish breakout in the GBP/USD but we recommend traders waiting for a break below 1.2350 in order to sell sterling.

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned that Britain, rather than the Eurozone, would be the first to suffer from the consequences of a Brexit. When speaking at the European Parliament in Brussels on Monday he described a cocktail of political risks hanging over the global economy, including the Brexit vote, Donald Trump’s election and the looming Italian referendum. Draghi also signaled the ECB’s readiness to continue its monetary stimulus. At the ECB meeting next week, the central bank is widely expected to announce an extension of its bond-buying program.

EUR/USD – Interesting chart formation

While there are good arguments for both bulls and bears favoring one direction or another, it should be interesting in which direction the euro may be heading within the next days. Given the uncertainty ahead of the Italian referendum, the risk is to the downside but with investors staying on the sidelines in the run-up to the important vote on Sunday, the euro could also trade directionless sideways. For the time being, we expect the pair to range-trade between 1.0670 and 1.0570. Above 1.0670 it may head for a test of 1.0710, whereas a break below 1.0560 may invigorate fresh bearish momentum towards 1.0470.

chart_eur_usd_4hours_snapshot29-11-16

Important economic data for today:

13:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index

13:30 USA GDP Report

15:00 USA Consumer Confidence

(Time zone: UTC)

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

British Pound Advanced On Risk Appetite While The Euro Trades Motionless

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Dear Traders,

The best performer was the British pound which climbed towards 1.43 and provided sterling bulls a good profit. As already assumed in yesterday’s analysis the odds seemed to be in favour of an upswing although there were no fundamental drivers supporting the bullish bias. Speculations about higher inflation could have been a possible reason for the pound’s recent price rice. Inflation accelerated to 0.4 percent annually in March from 0.3 percent in February, forecasts show. U.K. Consumer Price Indices are scheduled for release today at 8:30 GMT and if data are in line with expectations, sterling could begin to give up its gains as a slight uptick has already priced in. Traders should bear in mind that the outlook for the pound remains fragile as long as uncertainty dominates the currency ahead of the EU referendum in June. However, given the recent upward movement the cable may also extend its gains towards 1.4325 and 1.4365, provided GBP is able to break through the 1.43-barrier. On the bottom side we expect the 1.4175-level to lend a short-term support for the currency pair.

All quiet in the EUR/USD. This has been the motto for euro traders as the euro’s sideways movement provides nothing but losses. The current resistance at 1.1450 proved to be intact while the 1.1372 prevented prices from falling. Amidst the sideways trend, breakout traders searched in vain for any profitable trading chances and struggled with false breakouts. However, we know that a sideways trend with fluctuations confined to a narrow band usually does not last very long. We are therefore looking for upcoming breakouts of that narrow trading range.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Fed May Shift Towards Slower Pace Of Interest-Rate Hikes

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Dear Traders,

In the end the market reaction to the FOMC statement was muted and has left much do be desired for currency traders. While the statement was a communications challenge for the Federal Reserve it came in as balanced as possible. Particularly noteworthy is the shift into a wait-and-see mode, which signals a less-hawkish forward guidance. While an interest rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in March is less likely Fed policy makers have left the door open for a March. Officials said that rate increases will depend on how the U.S. economy performs and said that they were “closely monitoring global and financial developments”.

In a nutshell, the Fed may be inclined to move forward at a slower pace of interest-rate hikes but the main focus remains on labor market and inflation data.

The EUR/USD did not show much movement yesterday, trading firmly around the 1.09-mark. For the time being, we expect swings to be muted unless the euro breaks above 1.0960 or vice versa, breaks below 1.08 and 1.0770. Upwards movements could be capped at 1.0925 and 1.0955 while downward swings may be limited until 1.0870 and 1.0820 in the short-term.

The German Consumer Price Index is scheduled for release at 13:00 GMT, a report which could affect the price action in the EUR/USD.

The British pound continued to trade lower against the greenback. We generally favor a bearish stance in GBP/USD and our focus is on the 1.42-barrier. A renewed test of that support level may reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum towards 1.4170, 1.4150 and 1.4120. Current resistance levels are seen at 1.4285, 1.4308 and 1.4340.

U.K. GDP numbers are due for release at 9:30 GMT and if GDP is lower than expected, sterling could easily slide below 1.42.

Important U.S. data are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT with U.S. Durable Goods Orders, followed by Pending Home Sales at 15:00 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

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Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Focus on NFP report

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Dear Traders,

Last Friday was characterized by an ongoing demand for U.S. dollars. The pound sterling stopped its fall at 1.5135, from where it recovered slightly. Given the oversold situation in the GBP/USD, chances are that GBP may head for another test of 1.5260 and 1.5285. The EUR/USD has found a support at around 1.1125/10. In order to revive fresh bearish momentum, the pair would need to break below 1.1080. Above 1.1220, euro bulls could drive the pair towards 1.1270 and 1.1315, but traders should be careful with any buy-attempts, as the focus is on Friday’s Non-farm Payrolls report and profit taking is likely to occur ahead of the report before investors could jump back into dollar long positions.

After Yellen’s hawkish comments last Thursday, market participants will watch the NFP report closely. The market is pricing in a rate increase by the end of the year, so depending on the details of the payrolls report, an October tightening could be the case. On the other hand, if the report falls short of expectations, we could see a short rally in the EUR and GBP.

This week starts off with interesting U.S. data such as PCE indices, scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT followed by Pending Home Sales due for release at 14:00 GMT.

Important economic reports this week:

Tuesday – German Consumer Prices and U.S. Consumer Confidence

Wednesday – German Unemployment and Eurozone Consumer Price Index

Thursday – U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index

Friday – Non-Farm Payrolls

Moreover, central bank officials are scheduled to speak this week, including Yellen, Williams, Dudley and BoE governor Carney.

We wish you a good start to this week.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Decreased speculation on Fed Rate Hike

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Dear Traders,

Chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike have fallen to 30 percent on the back of weaker U.S. data and China’s  slowdown, essentially complicating the Fed’s decision tomorrow. The latest U.S. reports missed expectations and fueled speculation that the central bank could delay the first rate hike.

The euro bounced off its current support area at 1.1255 and is currently heading for a reconquest of the 1.13-mark. The British Pound declined on weak U.K. inflation data, indicating that an early 2016 BoE rate increase is less likely.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on today’s U.K. labor market data, scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT.

Technically, chances are that GBP could experience a small relief rally towards 1.5440.

GBP/USD

The next resistance zone will be at 1.54. If wee see a sustained break above this level, next bullish targets could be at 1.5440 and 1.5470. With a break below 1.5330, on the other hand, we expect bearish momentum to increase.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot16.9.15

Focus on Consumer Prices

Consumer Price Indices from the Eurozone and the U.S. are scheduled for release today. Traders should pay attention to these reports, as any surprises could trigger volatile moves.

9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI

12:30 USA CPI

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

And the winner is…the U.S. dollar

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Dear Traders,

After months of tortuous negotiations between Greece and its creditors, Greece finally capitulated to the creditor’s demands and implement measures even more severe than those rejected by Greek voters in the July 5 referendum on austerity. The deal must now pass the Greek parliament, which will be the next difficult hurdle for Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. Greece will only receive its third aid package when Tsipra’s Coalition of the radical left will approve the reforms. The deal is controversial among critics and some call the proposal nothing more than asset stripping.

While it remains to be seen if the deal will allow the country to stand on its feet in the long-run and act as a foundation for economic revival, one thing is pretty clear: The uncertainty and trauma incurred over the past months have divided Europe and increased the mistrust amongst the parties. Furthermore, the relationships within the Eurozone have been strained as a result. This is why the pressure on the euro is likely to continue.

Three main reasons why the euro declined after the Greek deal

1. The ECB will have to aggressively continue its Quantitative Easing to stabilize the eurozone’s balance sheet.

2. The Federal Reserve could reinforce the confidence that a rate hike is justified given the fact that Greek risk has been averted.

3. The Eurozone ideal has been worn away given the high level of mistrust.

The British Pound first rose against the U.S. dollar and provided traders a nice gain from our long-entry. Later during the day, the greenback was king and sterling declined below $ 1.55. The U.S. dollar strengthened against all of the major currencies yesterday, making it the biggest winner of the Greek debt deal and the most attractive currency.

Today, there are some interesting data releases which should be important to watch:

8:30 UK Consumer Prices

9:00 EUR German & Eurozone ZEW Survey

12:30 USA Advance Retail Sales

(timezone: GMT)

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Crucial Week

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you to a new trading week which promises to be a week of fireworks. After the breakdown of Greek aid talks, markets will now have to deal with the possible effects for the eurozone. Currently it seems as if the optimists on a Greek debt deal were wrong after the weekend developments marked an abrupt turn from last week’s hopes. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras shocked his counterparts with his call for a July 5 referendum on the austerity demanded by creditors, just a few days before the current bailout expires on Tuesday.

Greece declared a bank holiday until at least the national referendum and imposed capital controls to avert a financial collapse. Dark clouds may be looming on the financial sky, so traders should be prepared for strong market fluctuations this week.

The market will first focus on Greece and its IMF payment which is due on Tuesday. The rest of the week will focus on economic data, such as Eurozone Consumer Prices (Tuesday), ISM Manufacturing (Wednesday) and U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls due for release on Thursday. U.S. markets will remain closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday.

EUR/USD

Based on the recent upward channel, the euro has still failed to break significantly to the downside. As long as the currency pair trades comfortable above 1.09, we do not see a technical stimuli for an aggressive sell-off. Once it breaks significantly below 1.09 we see greater chances for a drop towards 1.0810 and further 1.0720. A next key support zone could be at 1.0720-1.0660. However, if the support line proved able to withstand the pressure we see a current resistance area at around 1.1050. Above 1.1080 our focus will shift to the 1.12-level.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot29.6.15

Important economic data for today:

8:30 UK Net Consumer Credit & Mortgage Approvals

9:00 EUR Economic Confidence

12:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index

14:00 USA Pending Home Sales

We wish you many good trades and a profitable week.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co