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Will The Dollar’s Reversal Last? Focus On GDP Numbers

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Dear Traders,

We had waited some time for a reversal to happen and yesterday we finally saw the greenback taking a breather while EUR/USD traded off its highs. The euro fell more than 100 pips from its 2.5-year high and dollar bulls might ask whether the greenback’s recovery will last a bit longer. Looking at the technical picture, EUR/USD and GBP/USD still remain well above their crucial support levels, so for the time being, there is no reason to speak of a trend reversal. Up to now, it was only a necessary correction in an overbought market.

EUR/USD: Euro bulls took profit after several consecutive days of euro strength. That profit taking led to a sharp reversal and drove the euro back below 1.17. As long as the euro remains above its support area at 1.1625/1.16, the uptrend remains intact.

German Consumer Prices are scheduled for release at 12:00 UTC, a report that could affect the price action in the EUR/USD.

GBP/USD:  Recently, the cable traded with a tailwind and appeared to be headed for a test of 1.32. This test could still happen but for the recent uptrend to remain intact the pound will need to hold above 1.2950/1.29. A break below 1.29 could spark bearish momentum toward 1.28 and 1.2750. Let us wait and see.

How the U.S. dollar will trade today will mainly hinge on the GDP report, scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. U.S. second quarter growth is expected to show an upswing but if GDP numbers disappoint, the dollar could resume its slide.

Having already gained a good profit this month, we will not invest our weekly and monthly profits and will thus stay on the sidelines.

We wish everyone a beautiful weekend.

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Euro And British Pound Flying High

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Dear Traders,

After the euro’s strong performance from Tuesday, the cable followed with a rise towards 1.30. A reason for the pound’s flight were hawkish rate comments made by Bank of England Governor Carney who said the BoE may need to begin raising interest rates and will debate a move in the next few months. “Some removal of monetary stimulus is likely to become necessary” Carney said on Wednesday in Sintra, Portugal. The pound sharply strengthened in response to his remarks.

Technically, the GBP/USD broke out of its recent downtrend channel and is currently headed towards 1.30. Buyers should pay attention to higher prices above 1.3060 in order to buy pounds towards 1.32. A current support is however seen at 1.28.

Traders who traded the EUR/USD Wednesday had a tumultuous session with the currency pair fluctuating choppily between 1.1390 and 1.1290. Everything from profitable breakouts till loss-making fake-outs was included in yesterday’s trading but at the end of the day, we were able to post a small profit.

Meanwhile, the euro was torn between the market’s (mis)interpretation of Draghi’s recent upbeat remarks, suggesting the beginning of the ECB’s withdrawal from its accommodative policy, and the central bank’s back paddling afterwards. The conflicting ECB signals sent the euro on a roller coaster ride but the follow through of the euro’s latest rally had a greater impact than quelling speculation. Consequently, the euro broke above 1.1390 and tested the 1.1420-level. Given the strong uptrend in the EUR/USD we expect the euro to continue its rally towards 1.15/1.1550. If the pair touches 1.15, sellers may take the opportunity and jump back in. A pullback towards1.13 however, may attract the attention of buyers.

From the Eurozone we have the German Consumer Price scheduled for release at 12:00 UTC, a report which could have an impact on the euro.

The U.S. GDP report due for release at 12:30 UTC will be of interest for dollar traders.

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Euro Bulls Profit From U.S. Dollar Weakness

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the euro and British pound after U.S. retail sales and CPI data fell short of estimates. Following Friday’s softer reports, the odds for a Federal Reserve rate increase next month have fallen to about 70 percent, even though data was still good enough to bolster the case for tightening in June.

EUR/USD

The euro rose towards its 1.0950-resistance after re-testing the current support zone ranging from 1.0855 to 1.0820. We will now pay close attention to a renewed break above 1.0950 which could result in a climb towards 1.1050.

Despite the low-volatile market environment there might be a catalyst for some swings throughout this week. The German ZEW Survey is due for release on Tuesday, followed by the Eurozone Consumer Price Report which is due on Wednesday and a speech of ECB President Draghi on Thursday.

GBP/USD

The pound sterling remained range-bound between 1.2990 and 1.2845 and traders still wait for, at least, a test of 1.30. It could be an interesting week for sterling traders with U.K. Consumer Prices (Tuesday), Employment data (Wednesday) and Retail Sales (Thursday) scheduled for release. Most of these reports are expected to surprise to the upside, so we may see a run for 1.30 and possibly even a test of 1.3050.

A bearish break below 1.2750 however, could increase bearish momentum towards lower targets around 1.26.

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Fed December Rate Hike Has Been Almost Completely Priced In; Time For A Correction?

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Dear Traders,

After the dust settled around the U.S. Presidential elections, market participants returned to business as usual while risk appetite has been boosted by the Trump reflation trade. The focus now shifts back to Federal Reserve rate hike in December, while there was some concern that a Trump victory would give the Fed reason to delay further tightening. Instead the U.S. dollar and U.S. yields are running higher amid speculation Trump’s plans to boost infrastructure spending will spur rate hikes as inflation and economic growth pick up. Fed rate hike odds are currently holding above 80 percent and economic data this week may further support the Fed’s hawkish bias.

Most attention will be paid to Tuesday’s economic calendar with Eurozone GDP data, U.K. Consumer Prices and U.S. Retail Sales due for release. On Thursday, U.S. Consumer Prices are worth watching followed by Janet Yellen’s testimony before the Joint Economic Committee. CPI figures should be strong enough to keep the Fed on track to hike rates next month while Yellen is expected to maintain her bias towards higher rates. Last but not least, ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at the Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt on Friday. The European Central Bank is expected to hold its course while analysts focus on a small alteration in the size and scope of the QE program in December rather than a rate cut.

Overall, economic conditions for the Eurozone remain stable and euro traders should bear in mind that the recent dip in EUR/USD can be attributed to the dollar’s rate expectations. Thus, the appetite for USD will continue to dominate the price action for the time being.The currency pair tested the support area around 1.0770 and it will now be interesting whether this support proves to be strong enough to withstand the downward pressure. If the euro drops below 1.0770 we expect further losses towards 1.07 and 1.0630. Near-term resistances are seen at 1.0850 and 1.0950.

The GBP/USD dropped back below 1.26 but the decline came to a halt slightly above 1.25. If the pound is able to climb back above 1.26, we expect further gains towards 1.2720. Sterling bears should however focus on a break below 1.2440, reinvigorating fresh bearish momentum towards 1.2350 and 1.2270. U.K. CPI data on Tuesday will receive most attention but Wednesday’s U.K. Employment Report may also be worth watching.

We wish you a good start to the new week and many profitable trades.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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U.S. Dollar Weakened Ahead Of CPI Data

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and British pound ahead of today’s consumer price reports. While Monday’s trading in the EUR/USD was quiet and none of our entries was triggered, sterling traders had to struggle with false breakouts within a tight trading range. Thus we had to record some losses before our last buy attempt proved to be successful. The pound strengthened before the U.K. releases inflation figures today at 8:30 UTC and sterling traders should pay close attention to the CPI report as it could have a major impact on the price action in the GBP/USD.

Technically, the pound broke above a descending trend line, pointing to further upside momentum in the short-term. If the pair is unable to break above 1.2275, the recent upward movement could be on shaky ground.

Bullish scenario: Above 1.2275 we expect further gains towards the next resistance at 1.2320/50. Above 1.2375 the pound may even head towards 1.2430.

Bearish scenario: Below 1.2130 we expect further pound weakness.

chart_gbp_usd_4hours_snapshot18-10-16

Apart from the U.K. CPI report we have U.S. Consumer Prices scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. Economists predict the report to show inflation is accelerating and if they are right the dollar will strengthen in the wake of Federal Reserve rate hike speculations before year-end.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Focus Shifts From U.S. Dollar Rally To Non-U.S. Event Risks

/in /by

Dear Traders,

We welcome you to a new trading week. While the last week ended with broad based U.S. dollar strength, the greenback could be pushed into the background this week given major event risks such as the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday as well as important economic reports from China and U.K.

Market participants will be closely watching U.K. inflation data on Tuesday. Consumer Price Inflation is forecast to accelerate in September given the fact that sterling’s recent drop boosts inflation. We saw the pound tumbling towards 1.2150 where it found some support for the time being. We anticipate some upward movements towards 1.2225/50 ahead of tomorrow’s report, whereas a break below 1.2130 may boost bearish momentum towards 1.21 and 1.2090.

Euro traders are eagerly awaiting the ECB’s policy decision and the announcement from ECB President Mario Draghi. The market was rocked earlier this month by a report that the central bank could start to taper its bond-buying program of 80 billion euros a month. Draghi could therefore attempt to calm the market by emphasizing that the stimulus would continue. The euro fell below 1.10 and tested the 1.0970-support level on the back of a strong dollar. Whether the EUR/USD could be vulnerable to further losses may hinge on the ECB announcement. If Draghi announces changes to the QE program the euro will react accordingly. For the time being, we consider the 1.0970-50 price area as a support for the pair. On the topside we see a current resistance at 1.1150.

From the U.S. we will have less market moving data this week with the CPI report (Tuesday) being the only interesting piece of economic data. Politically, U.S. presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will hold their final debate on Wednesday. 

Today, Eurozone Consumer Prices are scheduled for release at 9:00 UTC but this report is not expected to have a major impact on the euro. Furthermore, U.S. Industrial Production figures are due at 13:15 UTC.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Pound Drops On Gloomy Economic Prospects, Will Employment Data Brighten The Mood?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

While the euro still lacked a clear direction the British pound showed some larger moves on Tuesday after U.K. inflation data came in unchanged at 0.6 percent, disappointing analyst forecasts of a rise to 0.7 percent. Sterling fell more than 100 pips from our short-entry after consumer prices held steady in August. The question therefore arises whether the Bank of England believes that there is a need for a further rate cut to stimulate growth and push inflation nearer towards the central bank’s 2 percent target. The BoE is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at tomorrow’s meeting, but policymakers could still cut them further by year-end. The pound therefore remains a sell on rallies.

The U.K. Labor Market report is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC today and may help paint a clearer picture of the situation of the U.K. economy in the aftermath of Brexit.

GBP/USD

Sterling traders should pay close attention to the next support area at 1.3160/50. A significant break below that level could send sterling towards the next support at 1.31 from where it could bounce back. With sterling trading above 1.3150 we anticipate a slight correction towards 1.3250 and possibly even a renewed test of 1.33.

chart_gbp_usd_4hours_snapshot14-9-16

The euro remained confined to its narrow 60-pip trading range and euro traders must exercise patience. The euro would now need to break below 1.1170 to reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum. With no major economic data scheduled for release from the Eurozone, we expect the pair to continue its sideways trend between 1.1250 and 1.1170. We recommend traders to take profits at smaller targets if there are any.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Sterling Traders Benefit From High Volatility Environment

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The pound sterling is currently the most volatile currency and traders’ efforts were rewarded once again: As expected in yesterday’s analysis, some of the GBP’s recent losses have been corrected due to an oversold situation. Consequently, our long-entry has proved to be successful, providing traders a nice profit on Monday. The pound rejected the 1.4330-level and dropped back below 1.42. Given the fact that the ‘Leave’ Campaign gains ground against the ‘Remain’ before next week’s referendum, traders should generally expect further losses in the GBP. A next lower target could be at 1.40, whereas corrections might be limited until 1.4260. U.K. Consumer Prices are scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and even if the report comes in with an uptick in CPI, the pound is likely to remain under pressure.

The euro tested the 1.13-barrier and held steady around that level amidst uncertainties surrounding the Brexit vote and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision. With no major important economic reports scheduled for release from the Eurozone, the euro is expected to fluctuate within smaller trading ranges. The focus will rather be on the U.S. dollar and important U.S. data such as Retail Sales due at 12:30 UTC. Retail Sales are expected to show a slower growth in May and this expectation could weigh on the dollar before the report is due for release.

We currently see a higher likelihood for upcoming bullish momentum, driving the EUR/USD towards 1.1390. A crucial resistance level is seen at 1.1330/40 which must be significantly breached to the upside in order to reinvigorate fresh bullish potential. If the euro is unable to break above 1.1305 we will shift our focus to the 1.1270-level. Below that level we expect the euro to fall towards 1.1240 and 1.1215.

Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot14.6.16

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Inflation Data To Determine Direction

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Sterling traders had to bite the bullet and watch the cable’s profitable upward swing without being invested in the pound after our second buy attempt failed to provide any profits. Consequently, we are still in the red this month but we are confident that losses will be compensated as we consistently stay on the ball and remain disciplined.

The British pound rose towards 1.45 as Brexit fears are easing. A poll of U.K. voters showed 55 percent were in favor of the remain camp, while a minority of 40 percent wanted to leave the EU. Furthermore, sterling traders await the the U.K. Consumer Prices report, scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC and chances are that the inflation report is more upbeat. In case of better inflation figures, we might see the pound extending its gains towards 1.4520 and 1.4540. Above 1.4570, the currency pair could even head for a test of 1.4630. If U.K. inflation numbers fail to impress, the focus shifts to the U.S. CPI data. Below 1.4380 we expect sterling to drift lower towards 1.4340 and 1.43.

The euro ended the day unchanged against the U.S. dollar and traders must be patient and wait for an increase in volatility in order to benefit sustainably. Today’s price development will be mainly determined by the dollar’s performance and its response to the U.S. Inflation numbers, scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. An increase in CPI data could revive the dollar’s strength and drive the pair towards 1.1250 and 1.1220. On the upside, we focus on a break above 1.1365, which may result in an upswing towards 1.14 and 1.1435.

Apart from important inflation data, some Fed officials are scheduled to speak today at 16:00 UTC, which could have a short-term impact on the dollar.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

GBP/USD: Bottom At 1.4235? GBP Awaits CPI And Carney’s Comments

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Dear Traders,

The performance of the British pound was hampered by a short-lived upside correction, which was more limited than we had previously expected. While we anticipated the short pullback to last until at least 1.4335, the pound sterling reversed shy of 1.4325.  The currency pair is now facing its support at 1.4230 and if we see a break below that level, GBP could slide towards next lower targets at 1.42, 1.4150 and 1.4110. Short-term resistances are seen at 1.4310/25 and 1.4350.

Sterling traders will pay attention to the U.K. Consumer Price report, scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT today. While the Core CPI is forecast to hold steady, inflation data from December may show an uptick. Whatever the case, any changes in CPI could have a strong impact on the currency. Furthermore, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is scheduled to speak on the economy at 12:00 GMT. If he sounds more dovish, GBP could extend its losses versus the U.S. dollar.

The EUR/USD traded sideways within a narrow trading range. With prices above 1.0910 the euro may head for another test of 1.0945 and further 1.0975. On the bottom side we see a current support-area ranging from 1.0870 until 1.0845. The currency pair will first need to break this area significantly in order to test next important price levels at 1.0834 and 1.0810.

The most important piece of economic data from the Eurozone will be the German ZEW Survey due at 10:00 GMT alongside the Eurozone Consumer Price Report. In case of any disappointments, the euro could be trending downwards.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co