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U.S. Dollar Benefits As A Safe-Haven But Gains Were Limited

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Dear Traders,

The first trading day was characterized by a worldwide selloff sparked by slower growth in China. Slowing manufacturing in Asia’s largest economy fueled fears over the possible effects for global growth and led to safe-haven flows into U.S. dollar and Yen. While the euro initially traded higher against the greenback which was mainly driven by expectations of stronger German consumer prices, the common currency came under selling pressure when inflation data fell short of expectations.

The U.S. dollar benefited from safe-haven flows but downward moves in both pairs were only short-lived. GBP/USD broke below 1.4690 but quickly found a support at 1.4663. The EUR/USD dipped below its important support at 1.08 but ended the day comfortably above $1.08. We are still looking for a sustained break of 1.08/1.0780. A next lower target could be at 1.0735/30.

The most important data from the eurozone will be Consumer Prices, scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT today. If CPI data shows any surprises to the upside the euro could be heading towards 1.09 and 1.0935. Before that we will keep an eye on the Labor Market report from Germany, due for release at 8:55 GMT. The British pound marked a short-term resistance at 1.4730/40. We will wait for a significant break above 1.4755 in order to buy sterling towards higher levels. The UK Construction PMI, scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT may help the currency to trade higher.

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Will 2016 Be A Year Of Further Dollar Strength?

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Dear Traders,

Happy New Year! We hope you have had a good start into 2016 and wish you all the best for the New Year and, of course, many profitable trades.

At every beginning of the year many market participants wonder what they can expect from the new year. There has already been speculation as to whether the dollar rally will last another year or not. After three straight years of gains the odds are in favor of the U.S. dollar, even though the Federal Reserves’s monetary tightening cycle could weigh on U.S. growth. It will therefore be a challenge for the Fed to raise interest rates to an appropriate level which allows responding to economic setbacks. We generally expect the greenback to strengthen in the coming months as the Fed is forecast to continue raising interest rates. But as we all know, appearances can be deceptive and traders should bear in mind that both major currency pairs could be bottoming out if Fed officials begin to backtrack their hawkish views.

What is important for this week?

There are plenty of important data releases this week, but since the market participation may be slow in the first weeks of January, the impact of economic data could be limited. The focus will be on Consumer Prices from the Eurozone, scheduled for release on Monday and Tuesday. Furthermore, the Fed will release the FOMC minutes from its December meeting on Wednesday. The minutes are unlikely to have a significant impact on the dollar as the FOMC voting membership rotates every year, which is why some central bankers who voted for a rate hike last year are no longer voting members this year. Moreover, all eyes will be on the U.S. Employment data on Friday. If payrolls growth exceeds 200k alongside a strong rise in average hourly earnings, the dollar could be poised for further gains.

Let’s take a brief look at the technical side:

EUR/USD

The euro traded consolidated in a 1.10-1.08 trading range. We will need to wait for breakouts of this range in order to see fresh momentum. In the near-term we expect the euro being capped from 1.0950 and 1.10. A sustained break above 1.10 could invigorate bullish momentum towards 1.1050 and 1.11. On the bottom side the 1.08-level will be key and it would require unambiguous positive U.S. data to push the pair through this support.

Chart_EUR_USD_4 Hours_snapshot04.01.16

GBP/USD

Based on the recent bear trend we see a next important support area at 1.4635 and further 1.4560. However, given the latest strong downward move, chances are that sterling shows some corrections in the short-term. Current resistances are seen at 1.4850 and 1.4950.

 

Chart_GBP_USD_Daily_snapshot04.01.16

Important data for today:

8:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI

9:30 UK Manufacturing PMI

13:00 EUR German Consumer Price Index

15:00 USA ISM Manufacturing

(Timezone GMT)

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Will U.S. Consumer Prices Spur Dollar Bulls?

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro on speculation the greenback could be vulnerable to a post-Fed selloff. Investors are either taking profits before year-end or adjusting their positions ahead of the big event tomorrow. The Fed is widely expected to increase its benchmark but the focus will be on the overall monetary policy path following a first hike. The British Pound, however, was forced to test its 1.5110-support before it followed the current upward trend.

Today’s focus will be on Consumer Price Reports from the U.S.and U.K. As recently noticed, the market only shows a strong reaction when reports are falling short of expectations. We will therefore be looking for any surprises in CPI figures. Moreover, the German and Eurozone ZEW Survey is scheduled for release at 10:00 GMT.

9:30 UK CPI

10:00 EUR German & Eurozone ZEW Index

13:30 USA CPI

Here is where we see short-term resistances and supports:

  Resistances Supports
EUR/USD 1.1040

1.1060

1.11

 

 1.0965

1.0935

1.09

 
  Resistances Supports
GBP/USD 1.5187

1.52

1.5260

 1.5110

1.5075

1.5045

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

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Downward Pressure

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Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s price action was relatively muted after Paris attacks had only a small impact on the currency market. The overall sentiment is bearish as investors remain focused on expectations for a Federal Reserve liftoff as soon as next month, while the U.S. dollar also benefited from safe haven flows.

The euro broke below its low at 1.0674 and the trend is heading downward.

Here is where we see current resistances and supports:

  Resistances Supports
EUR/USD 1.0705

1.0750

1.0805

 

 1.0635-20

1.0575

1.0550

 

The most important piece of data from the eurozone will be the German and Eurozone ZEW Survey, due for release at 10:00 GMT. Even if data surprises to the upside, the market’s reaction could be muted as the recent attacks might have a negative impact on economic confidence.

The British Pound traded sideways, unimpressed by geopolitical developments. We expect volatility to increase with the release of U.K. Consumer Prices today at 9:30 GMT. If data is in line with expectations, the impact on the pound could be limited, but given the latest dovishness of the Bank of England, traders should generally favor a bearish bias. A next important support could be at 1.5135-25. Below 1.5125, a sustained break of 1.51 is needed to reinforce fresh bearish potential. Short-term resistances are seen at 1.5215 and 1.5245.

Furthermore, U.S. Consumer Prices are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT today. Any major surprises should have a significant impact on the greenback.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Euro with tailwind, sterling may have bottomed out

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Dear Traders,

Yesterday’s trading has been relatively quiet. After the euro refrained from taking any dips below 1.1145, euro bulls finally got their chance to gain some pips after EUR/USD broke above 1.1215. The British pound, however, followed its downward trend against the U.S. dollar and fell toward its recent support at 1.5155.

Today, traders should focus on eurozone data, such as German Consumer Prices, due for release at 12:00 GMT and important U.S. data, scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT – Consumer Confidence. Furthermore, Bank of England Governor Carney is scheduled to speak in London at 19:40 GMT, which could impact the pound sterling.

EUR/USD

While we generally expect the euro to trade lower in the long-run, the pair is currently heading upwards because of less-dovish comments of ECB policymakers, downplaying the possibility of further QE. Nonetheless, today’s inflation data will be interesting to watch, as the report could have a significant impact on the currency. If the German CPI indicates further weakness, the euro could come under increasing pressure.

Next resistances are seen at 1.1275, 1.1320 and 1.1360.

Supports could be at 1.1220, 1.1185 and 1.1120.

GBP/USD

The pound showed further weakness versus the greenback despite expectations that the BoE will not be far behind the Federal Reserve in relation of raising interest rates. Speculations are that the BoE could start tightening by February 2016.

If GBP breaks below 1.5135 a next support could be at 1.51 and 1.5080.

We see a current resistance at 1.5210. Above 1.5220, GBP may head for another test of 1.5260 and 1.5285.

U.K. Mortgage Approvals and Net Consumer Credit are scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT, reports which could have only a limited impact on the currency.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Will today’s economic data trigger big moves?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Market participants are very cautious ahead of the Fed decision on Thursday. Price fluctuations have been muted as a result. Nonetheless short-traders were able to gain a small profit by yesterday’s decline in the EUR and GBP.

Today, we will pay closer attention to important economic data such as U.K. Consumer Prices, the German ZEW survey and U.S. Retail Sales. Each report could have a more or less significant impact on the currency pairs, but since the market is dominated by uncertainty and risk-aversion, the reaction to these reports could result in unsteady and choppy swings.

EUR/USD

Technically we see the next major resistance zone at around 1.14. Euro traders might look for an upside move until 1.14/ 1.1420. However, with a significant break below 1.1250, we expect the euro to depreciate towards 1.1180 and 1.11.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot15.9.15

 

Important economic data:

8:30 UK CPI

9:00 EUR German ZEW Survey

12:30 USA Advance Retail Sales

(timezone: GMT)

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

A profitable week is coming to an end

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar extended its gains after data showed the U.S.economy grew more than forecast in the second quarter. The gross domestic product grew at a 3.7 percent rate, exceeding all expectations.

Short-traders have been very profitable for a third consecutive day and should now ensure that the weekly profit is not exposed to any risk. Therefore, you should consider doing either a trading break or trade with very small positions today.

The pound sterling dipped below 1.54 but managed to hold its ground and remained above the 1.54-mark towards the end of the day. U.K. Gross Domestic Product is scheduled for release at 8:30 GMT, a report which could trigger a major reaction in the GBP/USD if data is not in line with expectations.

Furthermore, we will keep an eye on German Consumer Prices, due for release at 12:00 GMT. From the USA, there will be second-tier data such as PCE numbers and Michigan Confidence, scheduled for release at 12:30 and 14:00 GMT.

It has been a profitable week, and that’s a good reason to lean back, relax and enjoy the weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2015 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co