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GBP/USD Holds Above 1.30

Dear Traders,

Sellers in the GBP/USD remained in control after the U.K. CPI fell short of expectations. The soft inflation report is making a BoE rate hike next month less likely than previously expected. The pound tested the 1.3010-mark but was later able to stabilize above 1.3050. Higher resistances could now come in at 1.3150 and 1.3230. As long as the pound remains below 1.3230 we may see a dip towards 1.2950.

Sterling traders may keep an eye on U.K. Retail Sales today at 8:30 UTC.

For day traders of the EUR/USD there was nothing to gain Wednesday. The euro fell victim to a strengthening dollar but losses were limited to the 1.16-handle. As long as 1.16 holds we expect the pair to trade between 1.1720 and 1.1620.

Given the liquidity drain, traders should bear in mind that trading conditions could be challenging during the summer months. A proper risk management is therefore indispensable.

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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Can U.K. Inflation Numbers Finally Lift The Pound?

Dear Traders,

The biggest story in the market was the sharp drop of the British pound as sellers have shown-up in the GBP/USD following hawkish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. With the U.S. economy remaining in good shape despite recent worries about trade tensions, the FOMC believes that “the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate.” The U.S. dollar received a boost from that upbeat outlook with traders bracing for further tightening from the Fed. The market is now pricing in a 90 percent chance of a next rate hike in September and a 64 percent chance of a hike in December.

With the dollar regaining strength both euro and British pound came under increased selling pressure. The GBP/USD dropped more than 140 pips from our short entry level while the EUR/USD slid back towards 1.1650.

Today is day 2 of Powell’s testimony and traders may be looking for further gains in the dollar. We also have the U.K. June inflation numbers scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC. This will be the final piece of CPI data ahead of the BoE August rate decision so watch out for volatile movements in the GBP/USD around that important release.

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Focus On U.S. CPI

Dear Traders,

Technically speaking, we got what we were looking for: A breakout of the cable’s consolidated price range. The GBP/USD broke below 1.3230 after the pair failed to overcome the 1.3285-barrier. The downward movement was mainly due to a strengthening U.S. dollar.

Also, the EUR/USD fell victim to a new round of dollar strength and declined below 1.17. We see a current support at 1.1650 which could stop sellers from entering into new short positions, at least for now. A short-term resistance is, however seen at 1.1740, from where sellers could take the opportunity to sell euros at higher levels.

Today we have the U.S. Consumer Price Index scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. The headline CPI is due in at 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent which could help boosting the dollar rally. However, a miss could have a bigger impact on the dollar rather than an outcome in line with expectations.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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GBP/USD: Preparing For Potential Short Squeeze Scenario

Dear Traders,

After the absence of a major driver or catalyst in the markets, today is loaded with market-worthy data and thus, traders are bracing for higher volatility in most major currency pairs. Top event risk will be the Bank of England rate decision with the BoE’s Quarterly Inflation Report. While the BoE is unlikely to raise interest rates at this meeting, it is the inflation report and the press conference with BoE Governor Carney that garner most attention.

The Bank of England will announce its rate decision alongside the release of the central bank’s inflation report at 11:00 UTC. The press conference will follow 30 minutes later.

Following the complete U-turn in rate hike expectations out of the BoE, the central bank has little choice but to signal a rate hike in August to maintain the bank’s credibility. The risk is therefore tilted to the upside with a potential short squeeze scenario in the GBP/USD. If the BoE, however, disappoint in terms of rate hike speculation deviating from their hawkish bias, the pound will further fall.

Another, no less important, report will be the April Consumer Inflation Report (CPI) from the U.S., which is due shortly after the BoE’s decision at 12:30 UTC. The Federal Reserve debate over a fourth rate hike in 2018 is still ongoing, which is why inflation figures could affect current rate hike speculation. Thus, a surprise in CPI data could have a major impact on the dollar, paving the way for some profit-taking or maybe an extension of the dollar rally.

Let’s take a look at the technical picture:

GBP/USD

The cable traded consolidated between roughly 1.36 and 1.35. The short-term bias is slightly bullish, with the focus now being on an uptrend channel between 1.3615 and 1.3515.  A break above 1.3810 could open the door for accelerated bullish momentum towards 1.40. On the bottom side, the 1.35-support remains a crucial price barrier. If the pound drops below 1.3480 we may see a drift towards 1.3330.

EUR/USD: The euro still trades around the falling trendline of its recent downtrend channel. As mentioned in yesterday’s analysis, the 1.19-barrier could prove an important hurdle for euro bulls now. A break above 1.1910 may encourage bulls for a test of 1.1950. Today’s price action will, however, hinge on the appetite for USD, which is why we focus on U.S. CPI data.

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

 

Prepare For Corrections Around U.S. CPI And FOMC Minutes

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar continued its recent weakness ahead of today’s U.S. CPI numbers. Subsequently, the EUR/USD was accompanied by a bullish tilt and rose towards 1.2380. Long traders in the euro were thus able to book a good profit by trading our long entry.

It will now be interesting for traders of the EUR/USD as the currency pair could be primed for a technical breakout. If the euro rises above 1.2370/80 we see chances of an extended upward move towards 1.2430. A significant break below 1.2350, however, could shift the short-term bias in favor of the bears with lower targets at 1.2330 and 1.2310. A break below 1.23/1.2290 could even alter the current sentiment from bullish to bearish.

The British pound stabilized above 1.4150 against the dollar and now faces the 1.42-barrier. A break above 1.4225 could lead to further strength towards 1.4270. Bears in the GBP/USD should, however, pay attention to a significant break below 1.4080, which could drive the pair towards 1.4025.

Today, the focus will return to economic data and the outlook for U.S. consumer prices (due for release at 12:30 UTC). Later in the day we have the FOMC minutes scheduled for release, so there could be some volatile movements around these releases. Bear in mind that the Federal Reserve is optimistic concerning further rate hikes this year, so the minutes could underline that positive outlook which would be dollar-positive. In other words, prepare for corrective movements around the CPI and FOMC release.

Apart from U.S. data, sterling traders will watch the U.K.’s Industrial Production numbers due for release at 8:30 UTC, while euro traders will listen to a speech of ECB President Mario Draghi at 11:00 UTC.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. CPI Data In Focus Today

Dear Traders,

The British pound ended the trading day in positive territory after news emerged that a Brexit transition deal could be announced in the coming days. The transition deal would give the U.K. two years beyond the March 2019 exit to implement new laws and regulations outside the EU bloc.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. Spring Budget statement today at 11:30 UTC. U.K. Chancellor Philip Hammond is likely to reveal an improvement in U.K. public finances. An upbeat tone could therefore spur bullish momentum in the GBP/USD.

Today, the U.S. Consumer Price Index is due at 12:30 UTC and this inflation indicator could shift Fed rate forecasts. A March 21 rate hike is almost certain but the focus will be on the debate between 3 and 4 hikes throughout this year. How the dollar will trade within the next hours could therefore hinge on today’s inflation numbers.

The euro ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the dollar while profitable trading opportunities were absent. As long as the euro remains above 1.23 we see the chances in favor of the bulls.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

No Love For The U.S. Dollar On Valentine’s Day

Dear Traders,

There was no love for the U.S. dollar on Valentine’s day, so the greenback ended up losing ground against the euro and pound despite better-than-expected U.S. inflation data. As expected, the U.S. CPI report had a major impact on the dollar, driving it sharply higher right after the report came out above expectations. The dollar rally did not last long, however, as stocks began to trade higher and that better atmosphere resulted in a sell-off of the dollar.

In general, even if yesterday’s CPI did beat estimates, the inflation data seems unlikely to change the pace of Fed tightening. Therefore, we may see continued dollar weakness in medium-term time frames.

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD launched sharp recoveries after marking fresh supports.

EUR/USD: The euro dropped to a low of 1.2275 before bears were handing over control to the bulls. That shift in sentiment has sent the euro sharply higher and we now see the single currency trading around 1.2480 following yesterday’s 2-percent-surge. For traders it will now be interesting whether the euro is able to take out the next hurdle at 1.2485 before it faces the resistance zone between 1.2515- 1.2540. A break of these barriers might be possible but given the absence of fresh catalysts bullish momentum might be running out of steam. A current support is still seen at 1.23.

GBP/USD: The pound broke above 1.40 after finding support at the round number of 1.38. For bullish momentum to accelerate the pound will need to break above 1.4070. A higher target could then be at 1.4150. As long as 1.38 holds, chances are in favor of the bulls.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

EUR And GBP: Bearish Reversal Ahead?

Dear Traders,

We saw some profit taking Tuesday with both euro and pound giving up some of their recent gains versus the U.S. dollar. We were thus able to pocket some profit with our short entries. The modest rebound happened before both currency pairs were poised for another bullish run towards higher highs. In thin Asia trading the euro took a short glimpse above 1.23 but was unable to hold above that level. The pound sterling climbed to a high of 1.3836 before it dropped back below the 1.38-barrier.

Whether we will see further gains in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD depends on the market’s risk appetite for euros and pounds. The euro recently received a boost from speculation, the ECB could end its bond-buying program earlier than the market currently expects but we bear in mind that it is a sensitive time for the ECB. A strengthening euro could damp prices, giving ECB policy makers an excuse to keep monetary policy steady, at least until after the end of QE, which is set to expire in September.

Apart from fundamental drivers, we keep tabs on technical barriers. On a daily basis, both pairs are still overbought, increasing the chances of steeper corrections. For the time being we expect the EUR/USD to trade between 1.2350 and 1.21.

Traders should keep an eye on the Eurozone Consumer Price Report today at 10:00 UTC.

The British pound remained below 1.3850 and as long as that barrier holds, we see chances in favor of a bearish reversal, provided that the cable drops below 1.3730. Lower targets could be around 1.3690 and 1.3610.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Euro Depreciates Against Dollar, Pound With A Tailwind

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar experienced a long-needed recovery against most of its major peers at the beginning of this week while the strongest move was seen against the euro. The EUR/USD dropped below 1.20 and extended its slide towards 1.1950. Whether we will see further losses in this pair remains to be seen and hinges on the appetite for dollars ahead of Friday’s U.S. CPI data.

Unlike the euro, the pound sterling was able to stem the decline and rebounded against the greenback after it marked a recent support at 1.3520. Our assumption of a steeper slide following a break below 1.3540 has been shown to be false, at least for now. We still see a higher likelihood of an extended upside swing after a break above 1.3590. However, if the pound falls back below 1.3530 it may be vulnerable for a break below 1.3520. Lets us be surprised.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on important price barriers shown in the table below.

  Resistances Supports
GBP/USD 1.3590

1.3615

1.3650

1.3520

1.3490

1.3450

Daily Forex Signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Will Yellen’s Final Move Depreciate The USD?

Dear Traders,

It’s decision day at the Federal Reserve and what makes this final policy decision of the year a significant meeting is not the anticipated rate hike, but the monetary policy outlook for 2018. While the market is certain of a third 2017 hike, the focus will turn to forecasts for the pacing through 2018. We will therefore keep an eye on the dot-plot in order to shape expectations for next year’s rate hike path. If the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) projects another three or possibly even four rate hikes ahead, the dollar will further rally. However, it is very unlikely that the Fed surprises the market and accelerates its pace. Hence, there is a risk of disappointment today, which could lead to a sell-off in the dollar. We recommend preparing for heightened volatility during the entire North American trading session, while most price action will take place around the FOMC decision and press conference, as well as the CPI reading that will be due before the rate decision.

For Fed Chair Janet Yellen it will be her final quarterly press conference before she steps down in February. It is therefore unlikely that she will signal any new prospects on the Fed’s guidance.

13:30 USD Consumer Price Index (CPI)

19:00 USD FOMC Rate Decision

19:30 USD Yellen Holds Press Conference

(Time zone UTC)

Yesterday’s price performance in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD was not to our liking as both currency pairs failed to pick a clear direction despite the broad-based strength in the USD. Technically speaking, the picture has not changed.

GBP/USD: The cable refrained from a break below 1.33 and we currently focus on a price range between 1.3450 and 1.3220. Yesterday’s better-than-expected U.K. inflation data failed to lift up the currency but if investors take profit on dollar positions today, we could finally see some corrective movements driving the pair higher before the holiday liquidity drain.  

EUR/USD: The euro remained well above 1.17 and as long as there is no clear break below 1.1680 the euro could head for another test of 1.1790. Below 1.1680 we focus on lower targets at 1.1640 and 1.16.

We wish you good trades for today.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co