CPI – MaiMarFX

After Lackluster Movement Focus On CPI

May 10, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

What a lackluster price development!

The GBP/USD’s minor correction ended at a daily low at 1.2577, failing to provide a sustained profit to short trades. The focus however still remains on an upside break above 1.2680 with a following higher target seen at 1.2720.

The EUR/USD found a short-term support at 1.0940 but for the euro’s sideways sentiment to change we would need to see a clear break either above 1.11 or below 1.09.

Elsewhere, there was nothing new in the DAX. The 16000-barrier seems to be a hard nut to crack for bulls – for now.

We will have the U.S. CPI release today at 12:30 UTC. Forecasts see a slight decline in the core gauge to 5.5 percent form 5.6 percent. Thus, chances are slightly in favor of further upward momentum in both currency pairs. In case of a disappointing reading, however, the dollar will surge.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

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Our trading ideas for today 10/5/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0975

Short @ 1.0940

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2630

Short @ 1.2585

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15990

Short @ 15930

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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Focus This Week On U.S. CPI And BoE

May 8, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Last week was characterized by an U.S. dollar decline on optimism that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its tightening cycle. On Wednesday, U.S. CPI data for April will show whether inflation has eased according the forecast to 5.5 percent in April from 5.6 percent in March, backing the hawkish market assumption.

Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report triggered a scaling back in Fed rate cut speculation for July, down to 36 percent from a 60 percent chance for a rate cut before the data. If CPI comes in higher, the dollar might regain some strength as the market has to reassess its rate cut speculation.

On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by another 25bp. With U.K. inflation still high at 10.1 percent, the BoE is likely to remain hawkish.

GBP/USD

The cable has hit the next higher target at 1.2650 while remaining within its recent uptrend channel. If the pair now breaks above 1.2675, we could see an extension towards 1.2720 but caution is advised. The pair entered overbought territory and is due for a correction. A support is seen at around 1.25.

Waiting for breakouts in the EUR/USD and DAX…

EUR/USD: A sustained break above 1.11 or below 1.09 is needed to revive momentum after days of consolidated movement.

In the DAX we still wait for a sustained break above 16000 which could lead to a run for 16300. On the downside, a recent support area remains intact between 15700 and 15600.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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U.S. Dollar Lower Post CPI

January 13, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The U.S. inflation report for December came in as expected at 6.5 percent, down from November’s 7.1 percent result. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar turned lower.

The euro broke above 1.08 against the dollar while the DAX held above the crucial 15000-mark.

We had some good results in the EUR/USD and DAX this trading week. We remind you to save some weekly profits today. The only problem child was the cable which remains in the red for now.

We wish you a beautiful weekend.

Our trading ideas for today 13/1/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0875

Short @ 1.0815

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2235

Short @ 1.2175

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15120

Short @ 15040

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

www.maimar.co

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All Eyes On U.S. CPI

December 13, 2022/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

All eyes will be on the U.S. consumer price index scheduled for release today at 13:30 UTC. Market participants expect the index to show a deceleration in price pressures. In case of any disappointment, the dollar will rally whereas a core CPI reading below 6 percent should ignite another sell-off in the greenback.

Our trading ideas for today 13/12/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0565

Short @ 1.0520

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2320

Short @ 1.2235

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 14380

Short @ 14320

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Subscribe to our daily signal service

We wish you good trades!

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Four Major Events

November 2, 2022/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Today, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest-rate decision. A 75-bp hike is considered a sure thing. Traders are rather looking for hints about plans to ease back from the Fed’s aggressive pace of hikes. Possible signals about a less-hawkish stance would be dollar-negative. However, given the hotter than expected September U.S. inflation report and the strong September nonfarm payrolls, the most likely scenario is continued aggressive policy tightening – at least until the end of 2022.

On Friday, the October U.S. jobs report will provide an important look at the health of the labor market.

On November 8, the U.S. mid-term elections could lead to a change in which party controls Congress. Stock bulls are hoping for a divided Congress, which has historically benefited equities.

On November 10, economists will be watching the consumer price index for signs of a further pullback in order to shape expectations for the Fed’s path. A lower reading could be dollar-negative on the back of increased risk appetite.

After an extended trading break, we have been back at the trading desk for three weeks now and have already been able to make a few profits. From 7 November 2022, we will also be offering our signals service again for all interested traders.

We wish you all good trades!

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Fed Taper is Priced-in, U.S. Dollar Pulls Back

October 14, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Speaking of inflation, the headline U.S. CPI number came in marginally higher than expectations while the core CPI print was in line at 0.2 percent (MoM). Most FOMC participants saw inflation risks as weighed to the upside and price pressures could sustain for longer than policy makers expected, yesterday’s FOMC minutes showed. A taper will be almost certainly announced at the Fed’s November meeting. The U.S. dollar weakened in the aftermath of yesterday’s reports since much of that expectation has been already priced in.

DAX

The best performer was the DAX that provided buyers a good gain (in our case a 100-points-profit). As long as the index holds above 15000, we will focus on a potential test of the 15500-area.

EUR/USD: We expect the pair to trade between 1.1750 and 1.15 in the near-term. Chances are slightly in favor of the bulls right now.

GBP/USD: A sustained break above 1.37 could drive the pair towards 1.3850 but sterling bulls should be cautious since sterling’s outlook clouded over somewhat. Falling back below 1.3540, a next lower target is seen at around 1.3370.

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U.S. CPI Data to Spur Volatility

October 13, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Not much has happened in the market on Tuesday with the U.S. dollar being little changed.

Traders are awaiting reports on the U.S. consumer-price index (today at 12:30 UTC) and retail sales (Friday). The figures will help to shape expectations about the likely timeline for Fed tapering and any eventual rate hikes. Today’s CPI numbers will be the last such release ahead of the FOMC November rate decision at which the Federal Reserve is expected to announce the start of tapering asset purchases.

Meanwhile, the upcoming data releases could spur added stagflation concerns. September inflation could be higher than expected and retail sales lower.

The release of CPI numbers could come as a big driver for U.S. dollar flows, so traders should brace for some volatility today.

EUR/USD: The pair extended its losses to a low of 1.1524 and if we now get a break below 1.1490, we could see the pair further tumbling towards 1.1450 and maybe even 1.1410. In case of a pullback, bulls will have to watch out for a rise above 1.1610 and further above 1.1670 in order to anticipate higher targets at 1.17 and 1.18.

GBP/USD: A sustained break above 1.37 could drive the pair towards 1.3850 but sterling bulls should be cautious since sterling’s outlook clouded over somewhat. A next lower target is however seen at around 1.3370.

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Weird U.S. Labor Market Still Favors Fed Tapering

October 11, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The U.S. dollar weakened in an initial response to the non-farm payrolls miss last Friday. While a strong U.S. job report was previously expected, the job growth in September turned out to be the slowest this year. With only 194,000 jobs added last month, it was the unemployment rate that fell to 4.8 percent and rising wage growth that prevented the greenback from a steeper decline. The lower unemployment rate, however, can be attributed to the decline in the size of the overall labor force. Average hourly earnings showed the strongest advance since April, highlighting companies’ attempt to attract workers be offering higher wages.

Despite the weird labor market picture that simultaneously shows signs of weakness and overheating, the Federal Reserve is expected to proceed with a tapering of bond purchases.

The British pound stabilized above 1.36 as the likelihood of a December rate hike by the Bank of England increases. Latest remarks from BoE officials suggest that the market should brace for a “significantly earlier” rate increase than previously thought to curb inflation.

GBP/USD: If the cable climbs above 1.3660 we pencil in higher price targets at 1.3750 and 1.38. On the downside, we would wait for a renewed fall below 1.3540 in order to expect a test of 1.34.

EUR/USD: Chances could shift in favor of the bulls, provided that the 1.16-hurdle can be taken out. A sustained break above 1.16 would shift our focus to a higher target at 1.1670, followed by 1.1750. However, if 1.16 remains a resistance, we see a lower support zone between 1.1430-1.14.

This week, most attention will be paid to the September U.S. CPI print on Wednesday. Elevated price pressures may underline that Fed tapering is just around the corner.

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Here Is Why The Dollar’s Sell-Off Did Not Last

September 15, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

U.S. inflation was less than forecast in August which is why the U.S. dollar sold off in a first response to the data. But why did the dollar dip not last and prices in the GBP/USD and EUR/USD reversed course? The answer is that inflation remains generally elevated while the 5.3 percent (YoY) headline and 4.0 percent core CPI are still far beyond the Federal Reserve target. This leaves the argument about whether pandemic-related inflationary pressures are transitory undecided. The Fed may have some more flexibility on when to start tapering but high inflation is till an argument for a more imminent taper decision.

Fed policy makers could eventually wait until December to officially announce a plan to taper asset purchases.

Technically, both GBP/USD and EUR/USD pulled back from short-term resistance zones. The cable reversed course after touching 1.3913 and is now looking at a break of 1.38. Below 1.3780, we look at 1.3730 and further 1.3650. In the EUR/USD we look at a trading range between 1.1840 and 1.1750 as long as bulls are unable to take out the 1.1850-barrier.

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U.S. CPI Data To Underpin Fed Taper Talks?

September 14, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The U.S. dollar traded slightly lower ahead of today’s U.S. CPI report which is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

If August CPI data shows that inflationary pressures slowed-down, we will see a bearish reaction in the dollar, pushing both EUR/USD and GBP/USD higher. An upside surprise, on the other side, would lead to a stronger dollar as traders pull forward bets on the timing of monetary tightening. At the Jackson Hole Symposium last month, the Federal Reserve led market participants believe that policy makers would wait longer before withdrawing stimulus but there has been speculation in recent days that the Fed may drop a hint of a forthcoming taper announcement at their FOMC meeting next week. This would be dollar-positive. But a hawkish signal will also depend on elevated inflationary pressures.

We could know more in the afternoon.

EUR/USD: The pair was able to stabilize again above 1.18 after testing 1.1770. Above 1.1830 we could see a run for 1.1870-80. Below 1.1790, the pair could test 1.1750.

GBP/USD: Remaining above 1.3750, chances are slightly in favor of a bullish move towards 1.3970. Below 1.3730, the focus shifts to a lower target at 1.3630.