CPI – MaiMarFX

Bullish Outcome For the U.S. Dollar Post CPI

April 11, 2024/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

What a trading day!

The hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation numbers sent the U.S. dollar soaring and all of our yesterday’s short entries in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD have proved highly profitable. The still high inflation diminished hopes for a Federal Reserve June rate cut, an expectation that was unthinkable at the start of this year, when the consensus view was for six cuts, beginning already in March! This repricing sent Treasury yields and consequently the greenback soaring.

The EUR/USD crushed again below 1.0830 but found some halt at the 1.0720-support area. Falling below 1.0720 will turn the focus to a potential break of 1.07 and possible a dip towards 1.0650. Euro bulls will take a backseat until a renewed break above 1.0880.

The GBP/USD fell towards its 2024-low at 1.2518 and traders are curious whether the support around 1.25 could now break.

Today, the European Central Bank is set to decide on its monetary policy guidance but the ECB is largely expected to point towards the start of rate cuts in June. Traders do not expect today’s announcement to be a huge market mover since the rate cut timeline has already communicated by ECB officials. However, the press conference at 12:45 GMT may increase volatility across the euro currency pairs.

Let’s wait and see.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 11/4/24:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0785

Short @ 1.0720

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 20-30

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

www.maimar.co

U.S. Dollar Bulls Hope For A Comeback Tuesday

March 11, 2024/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The U.S. dollar has been on the backfoot since mid-February but dollar bulls hope for a lift by an upside surprise in the U.S. CPI prints, due on Tuesday. The U.S. inflation print is the only interesting report this week as it will be an extremely quiet week ahead of next week’s crucial central bank decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

Things were more volatile on Friday. The latest U.S. Jobs report showed the unemployment rate rose from 3.7 to 3.9 percent and average hourly earnings fell while the headline NFP number beat market expectations.

Meanwhile, the British pound has been benefiting from the greenback’s pullback and thus, the GBP/USD finally broke above 1.28 heading towards 1.29. A next crucial hurdle is now seen at 1.30.

Even though dollar bears have gained control, the tables could turn on Tuesday. If February’s U.S. inflation print comes in above estimates, dollar bulls may experience a comeback.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

www.maimar.co

CPI Data In Focus

November 13, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Traders had to cope with a consolidation period last week which provided more losses than profits in terms of day trades amid a low volatility environment. As recommended, we didn’t invest much the past days and stood on the sidelines. The U.S. dollar was torn between falling and rising U.S. Treasury yields and finally ended the past week a little higher against the euro and British pound.

From a fundamental docket, euro and U.S. CPI are the most interesting reports this week. Euro area headline inflation is expected to drop sharply to 2.9 percent from 4.3 percent which could weigh negatively on the euro. Eurozone CPI is due on Friday. On Tuesday we will have the U.S. CPI report which could cause a hawkish repricing of interest rate expectations that would be bullish for the dollar.

The greenback remains favorable due in the current environment through a comparatively stronger economy as well as its safe haven allure amid the Middle East war.

EUR/USD

The pair trades below the 200EMA which currently oscillates at 1.0735. We recommend traders to wait for a bullish breakout above 1.0760. On the downside, we would wait for a break below 1.0590 with a lower target at 1.0520. The price area between 1.05 and 1.0450 is seen a crucial support for the pair.

GBP/USD

The cable finds itself still in a secondary upward channel. Based on this channel, we pencil in the 1.2150-area as a short-term support, whereas the 1.24-1.2470 zone as a resistance. Below 1.20 chances favor a bearish continuation.

DAX

The index recovered its recent losses and headed for 15450 (EMA200). Above 15600 we favor a bullish bias while below 14900, we will shift our focus to a lower target at 14300.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

www.maimar.co

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After Lackluster Movement Focus On CPI

May 10, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

What a lackluster price development!

The GBP/USD’s minor correction ended at a daily low at 1.2577, failing to provide a sustained profit to short trades. The focus however still remains on an upside break above 1.2680 with a following higher target seen at 1.2720.

The EUR/USD found a short-term support at 1.0940 but for the euro’s sideways sentiment to change we would need to see a clear break either above 1.11 or below 1.09.

Elsewhere, there was nothing new in the DAX. The 16000-barrier seems to be a hard nut to crack for bulls – for now.

We will have the U.S. CPI release today at 12:30 UTC. Forecasts see a slight decline in the core gauge to 5.5 percent form 5.6 percent. Thus, chances are slightly in favor of further upward momentum in both currency pairs. In case of a disappointing reading, however, the dollar will surge.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 10/5/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0975

Short @ 1.0940

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2630

Short @ 1.2585

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15990

Short @ 15930

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

www.maimar.co

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Focus This Week On U.S. CPI And BoE

May 8, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Last week was characterized by an U.S. dollar decline on optimism that the Federal Reserve is near the end of its tightening cycle. On Wednesday, U.S. CPI data for April will show whether inflation has eased according the forecast to 5.5 percent in April from 5.6 percent in March, backing the hawkish market assumption.

Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report triggered a scaling back in Fed rate cut speculation for July, down to 36 percent from a 60 percent chance for a rate cut before the data. If CPI comes in higher, the dollar might regain some strength as the market has to reassess its rate cut speculation.

On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates by another 25bp. With U.K. inflation still high at 10.1 percent, the BoE is likely to remain hawkish.

GBP/USD

The cable has hit the next higher target at 1.2650 while remaining within its recent uptrend channel. If the pair now breaks above 1.2675, we could see an extension towards 1.2720 but caution is advised. The pair entered overbought territory and is due for a correction. A support is seen at around 1.25.

Waiting for breakouts in the EUR/USD and DAX…

EUR/USD: A sustained break above 1.11 or below 1.09 is needed to revive momentum after days of consolidated movement.

In the DAX we still wait for a sustained break above 16000 which could lead to a run for 16300. On the downside, a recent support area remains intact between 15700 and 15600.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

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We wish you good trades!

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U.S. Dollar Lower Post CPI

January 13, 2023/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

The U.S. inflation report for December came in as expected at 6.5 percent, down from November’s 7.1 percent result. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar turned lower.

The euro broke above 1.08 against the dollar while the DAX held above the crucial 15000-mark.

We had some good results in the EUR/USD and DAX this trading week. We remind you to save some weekly profits today. The only problem child was the cable which remains in the red for now.

We wish you a beautiful weekend.

Our trading ideas for today 13/1/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0875

Short @ 1.0815

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2235

Short @ 1.2175

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15120

Short @ 15040

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

www.maimar.co

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All Eyes On U.S. CPI

December 13, 2022/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

All eyes will be on the U.S. consumer price index scheduled for release today at 13:30 UTC. Market participants expect the index to show a deceleration in price pressures. In case of any disappointment, the dollar will rally whereas a core CPI reading below 6 percent should ignite another sell-off in the greenback.

Our trading ideas for today 13/12/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0565

Short @ 1.0520

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2320

Short @ 1.2235

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 14380

Short @ 14320

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Subscribe to our daily signal service

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

www.maimar.co

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Four Major Events

November 2, 2022/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Today, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest-rate decision. A 75-bp hike is considered a sure thing. Traders are rather looking for hints about plans to ease back from the Fed’s aggressive pace of hikes. Possible signals about a less-hawkish stance would be dollar-negative. However, given the hotter than expected September U.S. inflation report and the strong September nonfarm payrolls, the most likely scenario is continued aggressive policy tightening – at least until the end of 2022.

On Friday, the October U.S. jobs report will provide an important look at the health of the labor market.

On November 8, the U.S. mid-term elections could lead to a change in which party controls Congress. Stock bulls are hoping for a divided Congress, which has historically benefited equities.

On November 10, economists will be watching the consumer price index for signs of a further pullback in order to shape expectations for the Fed’s path. A lower reading could be dollar-negative on the back of increased risk appetite.

After an extended trading break, we have been back at the trading desk for three weeks now and have already been able to make a few profits. From 7 November 2022, we will also be offering our signals service again for all interested traders.

We wish you all good trades!

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www.maimar.co

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Fed Taper is Priced-in, U.S. Dollar Pulls Back

October 14, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Speaking of inflation, the headline U.S. CPI number came in marginally higher than expectations while the core CPI print was in line at 0.2 percent (MoM). Most FOMC participants saw inflation risks as weighed to the upside and price pressures could sustain for longer than policy makers expected, yesterday’s FOMC minutes showed. A taper will be almost certainly announced at the Fed’s November meeting. The U.S. dollar weakened in the aftermath of yesterday’s reports since much of that expectation has been already priced in.

DAX

The best performer was the DAX that provided buyers a good gain (in our case a 100-points-profit). As long as the index holds above 15000, we will focus on a potential test of the 15500-area.

EUR/USD: We expect the pair to trade between 1.1750 and 1.15 in the near-term. Chances are slightly in favor of the bulls right now.

GBP/USD: A sustained break above 1.37 could drive the pair towards 1.3850 but sterling bulls should be cautious since sterling’s outlook clouded over somewhat. Falling back below 1.3540, a next lower target is seen at around 1.3370.

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U.S. CPI Data to Spur Volatility

October 13, 2021/in General News & Updates /by MaimarFX

Not much has happened in the market on Tuesday with the U.S. dollar being little changed.

Traders are awaiting reports on the U.S. consumer-price index (today at 12:30 UTC) and retail sales (Friday). The figures will help to shape expectations about the likely timeline for Fed tapering and any eventual rate hikes. Today’s CPI numbers will be the last such release ahead of the FOMC November rate decision at which the Federal Reserve is expected to announce the start of tapering asset purchases.

Meanwhile, the upcoming data releases could spur added stagflation concerns. September inflation could be higher than expected and retail sales lower.

The release of CPI numbers could come as a big driver for U.S. dollar flows, so traders should brace for some volatility today.

EUR/USD: The pair extended its losses to a low of 1.1524 and if we now get a break below 1.1490, we could see the pair further tumbling towards 1.1450 and maybe even 1.1410. In case of a pullback, bulls will have to watch out for a rise above 1.1610 and further above 1.1670 in order to anticipate higher targets at 1.17 and 1.18.

GBP/USD: A sustained break above 1.37 could drive the pair towards 1.3850 but sterling bulls should be cautious since sterling’s outlook clouded over somewhat. A next lower target is however seen at around 1.3370.