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U.S. Dollar Lower Post CPI

The U.S. inflation report for December came in as expected at 6.5 percent, down from November’s 7.1 percent result. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar turned lower.

The euro broke above 1.08 against the dollar while the DAX held above the crucial 15000-mark.

We had some good results in the EUR/USD and DAX this trading week. We remind you to save some weekly profits today. The only problem child was the cable which remains in the red for now.

We wish you a beautiful weekend.

Our trading ideas for today 13/1/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0875

Short @ 1.0815

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2235

Short @ 1.2175

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15120

Short @ 15040

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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All Eyes On U.S. CPI

All eyes will be on the U.S. consumer price index scheduled for release today at 13:30 UTC. Market participants expect the index to show a deceleration in price pressures. In case of any disappointment, the dollar will rally whereas a core CPI reading below 6 percent should ignite another sell-off in the greenback.

Our trading ideas for today 13/12/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0565

Short @ 1.0520

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2320

Short @ 1.2235

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 14380

Short @ 14320

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Four Major Events

Today, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest-rate decision. A 75-bp hike is considered a sure thing. Traders are rather looking for hints about plans to ease back from the Fed’s aggressive pace of hikes. Possible signals about a less-hawkish stance would be dollar-negative. However, given the hotter than expected September U.S. inflation report and the strong September nonfarm payrolls, the most likely scenario is continued aggressive policy tightening – at least until the end of 2022.

On Friday, the October U.S. jobs report will provide an important look at the health of the labor market.

On November 8, the U.S. mid-term elections could lead to a change in which party controls Congress. Stock bulls are hoping for a divided Congress, which has historically benefited equities.

On November 10, economists will be watching the consumer price index for signs of a further pullback in order to shape expectations for the Fed’s path. A lower reading could be dollar-negative on the back of increased risk appetite.


After an extended trading break, we have been back at the trading desk for three weeks now and have already been able to make a few profits. From 7 November 2022, we will also be offering our signals service again for all interested traders.

We wish you all good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Fed Taper is Priced-in, U.S. Dollar Pulls Back

Speaking of inflation, the headline U.S. CPI number came in marginally higher than expectations while the core CPI print was in line at 0.2 percent (MoM). Most FOMC participants saw inflation risks as weighed to the upside and price pressures could sustain for longer than policy makers expected, yesterday’s FOMC minutes showed. A taper will be almost certainly announced at the Fed’s November meeting. The U.S. dollar weakened in the aftermath of yesterday’s reports since much of that expectation has been already priced in.

DAX

The best performer was the DAX that provided buyers a good gain (in our case a 100-points-profit). As long as the index holds above 15000, we will focus on a potential test of the 15500-area.

EUR/USD: We expect the pair to trade between 1.1750 and 1.15 in the near-term. Chances are slightly in favor of the bulls right now.

GBP/USD: A sustained break above 1.37 could drive the pair towards 1.3850 but sterling bulls should be cautious since sterling’s outlook clouded over somewhat. Falling back below 1.3540, a next lower target is seen at around 1.3370.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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U.S. CPI Data to Spur Volatility

Not much has happened in the market on Tuesday with the U.S. dollar being little changed.

Traders are awaiting reports on the U.S. consumer-price index (today at 12:30 UTC) and retail sales (Friday). The figures will help to shape expectations about the likely timeline for Fed tapering and any eventual rate hikes. Today’s CPI numbers will be the last such release ahead of the FOMC November rate decision at which the Federal Reserve is expected to announce the start of tapering asset purchases.

Meanwhile, the upcoming data releases could spur added stagflation concerns. September inflation could be higher than expected and retail sales lower.

The release of CPI numbers could come as a big driver for U.S. dollar flows, so traders should brace for some volatility today.

EUR/USD: The pair extended its losses to a low of 1.1524 and if we now get a break below 1.1490, we could see the pair further tumbling towards 1.1450 and maybe even 1.1410. In case of a pullback, bulls will have to watch out for a rise above 1.1610 and further above 1.1670 in order to anticipate higher targets at 1.17 and 1.18.

GBP/USD: A sustained break above 1.37 could drive the pair towards 1.3850 but sterling bulls should be cautious since sterling’s outlook clouded over somewhat. A next lower target is however seen at around 1.3370.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Weird U.S. Labor Market Still Favors Fed Tapering

The U.S. dollar weakened in an initial response to the non-farm payrolls miss last Friday. While a strong U.S. job report was previously expected, the job growth in September turned out to be the slowest this year. With only 194,000 jobs added last month, it was the unemployment rate that fell to 4.8 percent and rising wage growth that prevented the greenback from a steeper decline. The lower unemployment rate, however, can be attributed to the decline in the size of the overall labor force. Average hourly earnings showed the strongest advance since April, highlighting companies’ attempt to attract workers be offering higher wages.

Despite the weird labor market picture that simultaneously shows signs of weakness and overheating, the Federal Reserve is expected to proceed with a tapering of bond purchases.

The British pound stabilized above 1.36 as the likelihood of a December rate hike by the Bank of England increases. Latest remarks from BoE officials suggest that the market should brace for a “significantly earlier” rate increase than previously thought to curb inflation.

GBP/USD: If the cable climbs above 1.3660 we pencil in higher price targets at 1.3750 and 1.38. On the downside, we would wait for a renewed fall below 1.3540 in order to expect a test of 1.34.

EUR/USD: Chances could shift in favor of the bulls, provided that the 1.16-hurdle can be taken out. A sustained break above 1.16 would shift our focus to a higher target at 1.1670, followed by 1.1750. However, if 1.16 remains a resistance, we see a lower support zone between 1.1430-1.14.

This week, most attention will be paid to the September U.S. CPI print on Wednesday. Elevated price pressures may underline that Fed tapering is just around the corner.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Here Is Why The Dollar’s Sell-Off Did Not Last

U.S. inflation was less than forecast in August which is why the U.S. dollar sold off in a first response to the data. But why did the dollar dip not last and prices in the GBP/USD and EUR/USD reversed course? The answer is that inflation remains generally elevated while the 5.3 percent (YoY) headline and 4.0 percent core CPI are still far beyond the Federal Reserve target. This leaves the argument about whether pandemic-related inflationary pressures are transitory undecided. The Fed may have some more flexibility on when to start tapering but high inflation is till an argument for a more imminent taper decision.

Fed policy makers could eventually wait until December to officially announce a plan to taper asset purchases.

Technically, both GBP/USD and EUR/USD pulled back from short-term resistance zones. The cable reversed course after touching 1.3913 and is now looking at a break of 1.38. Below 1.3780, we look at 1.3730 and further 1.3650. In the EUR/USD we look at a trading range between 1.1840 and 1.1750 as long as bulls are unable to take out the 1.1850-barrier.

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals

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U.S. CPI Data To Underpin Fed Taper Talks?

The U.S. dollar traded slightly lower ahead of today’s U.S. CPI report which is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

If August CPI data shows that inflationary pressures slowed-down, we will see a bearish reaction in the dollar, pushing both EUR/USD and GBP/USD higher. An upside surprise, on the other side, would lead to a stronger dollar as traders pull forward bets on the timing of monetary tightening. At the Jackson Hole Symposium last month, the Federal Reserve led market participants believe that policy makers would wait longer before withdrawing stimulus but there has been speculation in recent days that the Fed may drop a hint of a forthcoming taper announcement at their FOMC meeting next week. This would be dollar-positive. But a hawkish signal will also depend on elevated inflationary pressures.

We could know more in the afternoon.

EUR/USD: The pair was able to stabilize again above 1.18 after testing 1.1770. Above 1.1830 we could see a run for 1.1870-80. Below 1.1790, the pair could test 1.1750.

GBP/USD: Remaining above 1.3750, chances are slightly in favor of a bullish move towards 1.3970. Below 1.3730, the focus shifts to a lower target at 1.3630.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Traders Eye Inflation Reports

Welcome to a new trading week. Traders will likely be eyeing key inflation data from the U.S., U.K. and eurozone this week to shape expectations for monetary policy tightening. The U.S. dollar in the meantime strengthened slightly against other peers, pushing the euro and British pound lower and below crucial support levels.

U.S. inflation is expected to slow down for the first time this year, increasing the chances of a bearish reaction in the greenback. Evidence of slower price growth would warrant the Federal Reserve’s current path for monetary policy, while a higher than forecast inflation reading could generate a bullish reaction in the dollar. The U.S. inflation report is due for release on Tuesday.

EUR/USD

The pair held above the 1.18-barrier until this morning but now that the threshold was breached, we could see the euro falling towards 1.1750 and 1.1730 in a next move. On the topside, we look at a resistance at 1.1880 that could attract sellers. For a bullish breakout, however, we would need to see prices above 1.1910.

GBP/USD: As long as the cable holds above 1.3750, we pencil in higher targets between 1.3950-70.

DAX: After 15700 broke, the index slid lower towards 15400 but if current support levels seen at 15400 and 15250 hold, we anticipate a bullish move back towards 15900.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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U.S. Dollar Jumps On Surprise CPI Data

U.S. dollar bulls rushed in after the surprise U.S. inflation jump, showing the highest inflation since 2008, stirred the debate on how long the Federal Reserve can keep monetary policy ultra-loose. The CPI report topped all forecasts and traders saw the data as putting more pressure on the Fed. The greenback advanced sharply, pushing EUR/USD and GBP/USD towards lower targets.

Traders will now be scrutinizing the testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell tomorrow.

EUR/USD

Dollar bulls have pushed the pair lower towards the descending trendline at around 1.1750, the lower barrier of a current downtrend channel. Whether this channel holds, remains to be seen. Falling below 1.1740 could increase bearish momentum towards 1.17 and 1.16. A current resistance is however seen at around 1.19.

DAX: There was nothing to gain for day traders on Tuesday as momentum came to a halt after the index reached a new high slightly above 15800. If the index remains above 15600, we could see an extension of gains towards 15900 and 16000.

Summer is in the markets and given a lower-liquidity backdrop across many markets during the summer months the potential for range-bound conditions is high. We therefore recommend traders staying on the sidelines during these low-liquidity periods, taking a break from the markets and adjusting risk exposure. The next major risk event will be later in the summer with the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium August 26-28.

We will take our annual summer trading break from August 2 to August 20 but will adjust risk exposure even in the month of July.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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