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Will The DAX Break Above 19700?

Welcome to the final trading month of the year.

The Federal Reserve is still expected to cut interest rates by 25bp at the Fed’s final meeting for the year on December 18. Investors are bracing for a potentially slower pace of rate cuts in 2025 amid still sticky inflation and expectation of inflation in the long term under Trump’s protectionist policies. However, economists still see a generally stronger U.S. dollar given the continued resilience of the U.S. economy and a worsening outlook elsewhere.

This week’s focus will be on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls data for November.

As for Europe, political uncertainty in France is weighing on the euro. Investors wait to see if France’s government can survive the week intact.

EUR/USD: Dipping again back below 1.0490 could see another leg down towards 1.0350.

On December 12, the European Central Bank is seen cutting rates, with an even 27 percent chance ECB policy makers might ease by 50bp.

DAX: Will the Index break the 19700-mark? We see a current support at 19400 and as long as the DAX can hold above this threshold we anticipate an upside breakout above 19700.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2024 MaiMarFX.

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Bullish Bias

Welcome to a new trading week.

The DAX surged to a fresh high at 16440 amid other rallies in Gold and Bitcoin. Markets bet on rate cuts and pay not much attention to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell who reminds that policymakers are in no hurry to ease interest rates. Traders rather bet the Fed could cut rates as early as March 2024. Powell on Friday noted the central bank is ready to hike further if needed, though policy is “well into restrictive territory.”

This week, most attention will be paid to the U.S. non-farm payrolls data due on Friday.

DAX – Flirting with record highs

After the index broke above 16050, it almost headed straight-lined towards the next target at 16450. Above 16460, the next target will be the record-high at 16533. While we believe bullish momentum could be enough to break above record highs, we note that the index fluctuates within its resistance zone which is why we prepare for pullbacks towards 16200.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

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Short Durability Of Buy-The-Dip Rebound?

Europe entered one of its worst security crises since World War II.

Following yesterday’s rapid Market sell-off we saw a buy-the-dip rebound but the question is now whether the rebound is durable. This may be difficult however, since the conflict muddied the outlook for markets and the global economic recovery. Traders should expect further losses in risk assets while the U.S. dollar benefits as a safe haven.

EUR/USD: Below 1.1090, we expect further losses towards 1.09. Short-term resistance is seen at 1.1320.

GBP/USD: Below 1.32, we expect further losses towards 1.30. Short-term resistance is seen at 1.36.

DAX: As long as the index remains below 14800, we anticipate further losses towards 13500 and 13000.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

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Quiet Trading

Not much is going on in the market with many currency pairs fluctuating in narrow price ranges. And thus, we got no profitable trading chance so far.

The EUR/USD remained trading within 1.1450 and 1.14. A renewed break above 1.1480 could lift the pair upwards towards 1.1520. A slide below 1.1390 however, could lead to a test of the 1.13-support.

The GBP/USD struggled to break significantly above 1.3560. We advise bulls to wait for a clear break above 1.3610 in order to buy sterling toward 1.3670.  Bears on the other side, may wait for a slide below 1.34.

Our trading ideas for today 9/2/22:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1435

Short @ 1.1380

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3580

Short @ 1.3525

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 15390

Short @ 15320

ETH/USD

Long @ 3110

Short @ 3070

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Daily Trading Ideas

Daily Forex Signals:

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EUR/USD

Long @ 1.1325

Short @ 1.1265

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3290

Short @ 1.3240

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 15540

Short @ 15480

ETH/USD

Long @ 4410

Short @ 4240

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Inflation is Here to Stay

Welcome to a new trading week.

Wall Street analysts say inflation is not transitory, it’s permanent. The sentiment that inflation is not transitory is also echoed by Mohammed El-Erian, the chief economic advisor at Allianz SE, who said elevated inflation and supply-chain bottlenecks are only partly rooted in transitory reasons. He predicted “another year at least of high and persistent inflation.”

With this in mind, the Federal Reserve may have no choice but to pull back on stimulus measures.

The U.S. dollar was firm against the euro but weaker against the British pound.

GBP/USD

The cable extended its advance to a fresh monthly high at 1.3773 on speculation the U.K. Consumer Price Index (due for release on Wednesday) is showing a slowdown in the core rate of inflation. However, a marked slowdown in the U.K. CPI would derail the pound’s recent rally as it provides the Bank of England greater scope to retain its current monetary policy and dampens speculation for an imminent BoE rate hike.

From a technical perspective, chances are in favor of a test of 1.38 and possibly even 1.3850, provided that the pair holds above 1.36. A renewed break below 1.3570 would shift chances in favor of the bears with a lower target seen at 1.3370.

EUR/USD: The euro refrained from a break below 1.1580, at least until this morning. Below 1.1580 we expect the pair to dip towards 1.1550-40. Bulls on the other side will have to wait for a break above 1.1610 to shift the focus to a higher target at 1.1650-60.

DAX

The DAX knew only one direction in recent days: Upwards. The recent break above 15550 could now have paved the way for a test of the 15800-resistance. A break above 15820 could see a renewed test of the crucial 16000-mark. A current support is however seen at around 15300.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Inflation wird andauern

Willkommen zu einer neuen Handelswoche.

Analysten der Wall Street sagen, Inflation sei nicht vorübergehend, sondern dauerhaft. Die Meinung, dass die Inflation nicht vorübergehend ist, wird auch von Mohammed El-Erian, dem leitenden Wirtschaftsberater der Allianz SE, geteilt, der sagte, dass die erhöhte Inflation und Lieferkettenengpässe nur teilweise auf vorübergehende Gründe zurückzuführen sind. Er prophezeite „mindestens noch ein weiteres Jahr der hohen und anhaltenden Inflation“.

Vor diesem Hintergrund bleibt der Federal Reserve möglicherweise keine andere Wahl, als den pandemiebedingten Stimulus zeitnah zurückzuziehen.

Der U.S. Dollar handelte fest gegenüber dem Euro, jedoch schwächer gegenüber dem Britischen Pfund.

GBP/USD

Der Cable weitete seinen Anstieg auf ein neues Monatshoch bei 1.3773 aus aufgrund von Spekulationen, dass der britische Verbraucherpreisindex (Veröffentlichung am Mittwoch) eine Verlangsamung der Kerninflationsrate anzeigt. Eine deutliche Verlangsamung des U.K. VPI könnte jedoch die jüngste Rallye des Pfunds zum Erliegen bringen, da es der Bank von England mehr Spielraum bietet, ihre aktuelle Geldpolitik beizubehalten. Die Spekulationen über eine bevorstehende BoE Zinserhöhung würden in diesem Falle gedämpft werden.

Aus technischer Sicht stehen die Chancen günstig für einen Test von 1.38 und möglicherweise sogar 1.3850, sofern sich das Paar oberhalb von 1.36 halten kann. Ein erneuter Bruch unter 1.3570 würde die Chancen hingegen zugunsten der Bären mit einem niedrigeren Ziel bei 1.3370 verschieben.

EUR/USD: Der Euro hat zumindest bis heute Morgen von einem Bruch unter 1.1580 abgesehen. Unter 1.1580 erwarten wir, dass das Paar in Richtung von 1.1550-40 fällt. Bullen auf der anderen Seite müssen auf einen Bruch über 1.1610 warten, um den Fokus auf ein höheres Ziel bei 1.1650-60 zu richten.

DAX

Der Dax kannte in den letzten Tagen nur eine Richtung: Aufwärts. Der jüngste Durchbruch über 15550 könnte nun den Weg für einen Test des 15800-Widerstands geebnet haben. Ein Bruch über 15820 könnte einen erneuten Test der entscheidenden 16000-Marke bedeuten. Eine aktuelle Unterstützung sehen wir hingegen bei etwa 15300.

 

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Fed Taper is Priced-in, U.S. Dollar Pulls Back

Speaking of inflation, the headline U.S. CPI number came in marginally higher than expectations while the core CPI print was in line at 0.2 percent (MoM). Most FOMC participants saw inflation risks as weighed to the upside and price pressures could sustain for longer than policy makers expected, yesterday’s FOMC minutes showed. A taper will be almost certainly announced at the Fed’s November meeting. The U.S. dollar weakened in the aftermath of yesterday’s reports since much of that expectation has been already priced in.

DAX

The best performer was the DAX that provided buyers a good gain (in our case a 100-points-profit). As long as the index holds above 15000, we will focus on a potential test of the 15500-area.

EUR/USD: We expect the pair to trade between 1.1750 and 1.15 in the near-term. Chances are slightly in favor of the bulls right now.

GBP/USD: A sustained break above 1.37 could drive the pair towards 1.3850 but sterling bulls should be cautious since sterling’s outlook clouded over somewhat. Falling back below 1.3540, a next lower target is seen at around 1.3370.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

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Short Traders Profit Amid Market Anxiety

Wednesday has been a highly profitable trading day for us as we were able to catch a 100-points-gain while trading the dip in the DAX while elsewhere, all profit targets in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD have been reached as well. The ADP report came in better than expected and although the impact on the greenback was minimal, traders brace for stronger non-farm payrolls tomorrow. These expectations could buoy the U.S. dollar ahead of Friday’s report.

Additionally, the U.S. debt ceiling and the risk of a standoff between the Democrats and Republicans is adding uncertainty. This game of chicken is likely to accompany us through the end of this year.

DAX

The index stopped its fall shy of 14800. A break below 14800 would have generated a stronger sell signal but now that the imminent danger of such break is over, we see a strong rebound towards 15200. For bullish action to resume we must see a break above 15300. A higher target is seen at 15600. On the downside, we would now wait for a break below 14750 in order to shift our focus to 14400.

EUR/USD

The euro follows its steeper downtrend channel with a lower target now seen at 1.1480. If the pair is, however, able to stabilize above 1.1610 we could see a run for 1.17.

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

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USD Holds Onto Gains, Focus On PCE Index

Sentiment remains dominated by mounting fears about slowing economic growth, elevated inflation, supply-chain bottlenecks and a global energy crunch. The U.S. dollar holds onto its gains heading into the weekend with market participants bracing for the Federal Reserve to wind down its stimulus.

Next week’s focus will be on the non-farm payrolls report that is expected to show more than double the job gain from August.

Today we will keep an eye on the U.S. personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) due for release at 12:30 UTC. Bear in mind that the Fed uses the PCE price index as its main measure of inflation. A surprise reading could thus impact the greenback.

EUR/USD: A next crucial target for bears is seen at 1.15. On the upside, we expect a resistance to come in at around 1.1670.

GBP/USD: We see a lower target at 1.3350 now. Breaking however below 1.3280 could see an extended slide towards 1.3180. A current resistance is seen at 1.36.

DAX: Bears, watch out for lower targets at 15000 and 14900. A break below 14800 could generate an even stronger sell signal towards 14400. For a bullish breakout on the other side, we would need to see prices above 15650.

Have a good weekend!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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