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Euro And Cable Correct Gains

The EUR/USD extended its gains to a high of 1.1845 before we finally saw a correction. The pullback was anticipated and could continue until 1.1750. If the euro is, however, able to hold above 1.18 traders will shift their focus to the crucial 1.1880-1.19 resistance.

The GBP/USD remained consolidated between 1.3810 and 1.3740. A break below 1.3710 could spur bearish momentum towards 1.3650, whereas on the upside, the 1.3820-hurdle remains an important resistance in the short-term.

The DAX touched 16000 but refrained from an excursion beyond that level – at least until now. As long as the current support at 15700 holds, we still favor further upward moves towards 16100.

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FOMC July Meeting A Non-Event For Traders?

We welcome you to this new trading week which will be the last one before our summer trading break (2/8/ -20/8/21).

This week’s key event risk will be Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision but traders should not expect too much from the July FOMC meeting as it falls between the June FOMC which brings new economic projections (SEP) and the August meeting in Jackson Hole. The July meeting is therefore typically “overlooked” with investors shifting their focus to the central bank’s August 26-28 annual policy retreat in Jackson Hole, where the Fed is likely to hint at tapering.

There are no published FOMC forecasts this meeting and with Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently indicating that slowing stimulus is too early, the Fed may discuss its tapering plans but is not expected to make a formal announcement at this time. For traders, the FOMC meeting could thus prove to be a non-event in terms of big market moves.

Fresh signals from the Fed (and thus bigger market moves) are expected either at the Aug. 26-28 policy retreat in Jackson Hole or at the Sept. 21-22 FOMC meeting.

GBP/USD: More upside potential might be in store for this pair but we expect the 1.3830-50 region to serve as a short-term resistance. A break above 1.39, however, could open the door for a run towards 1.40. Below 1.3650, the focus shifts towards 1.35.

EUR/USD: As long as price action remains muted in this pair, we continue to watch out for a price range between 1.1850 and 1.17.

DAX: We keep an eye on the price range between 15900 and 15000. A sustained break above 15900 could open the door for a run for 16250. On the downside, a break below 15000 could see a next lower target at 14800.

Summer is in the markets and given a lower-liquidity backdrop across many markets during the summer months the potential for range-bound conditions is high. We therefore recommend traders staying on the sidelines during these low-liquidity periods, taking a break from the markets and adjusting risk exposure. The next major risk event will be later in the summer with the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium August 26-28.

We will take our annual summer trading break from August 2 to August 20 but we adjusted risk exposure even in the month of July.

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Risk Aversion Returns To The Market

Traders saw a strong sell-off on Monday which led in many indices to a slump towards psychological support zones such as the 15000 level in the DAX. The index fell to the lowest level since May as investors rushed into safe haven assets as sentiment soured. A bout of risk aversion returned to the summer markets amid renewed fears over an economic slowdown, driven by a resurgence in Covid cases.

DAX

The index did not stop its fall until nearly 15000. Buying the dip could lead to some rebound towards 15500 now.

As for the currencies, the biggest beneficiaries of haven demand were the U.S. dollar and Japanese Yen. The GBP/USD dropped towards the descending trendline of its recent downward channel near 1.3650. If now 1.3630 holds, we may see a small rebound towards 1.3750.

The EUR/USD was the only currency pair that ended the trading day virtually unchanged. We keep tabs on technical breaks below 1.1730 and 1.17 on the downside and 1.1850 on the upside.

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Could The U.S. Dollar Rebound Prove Short-lived?

The U.S. dollar extended its gains versus other major peers Thursday after the Federal Reserve marked a turning point in the communication to the market from ultra-dovish to a hawkish tilt. However, while a Fed rate hike is still a long way off, the rebound in the dollar could be limited in the short-term.

EUR/USD: The euro dipped slightly below 1.19 but was able to hold above that threshold until at least Friday morning. We see a short-term resistance now at 1.1950 followed by a crucial resistance at 1.20 – which served as a former crucial support in this pair. Falling below 1.1860 however, bears may push the euro lower towards 1.18.

GBP/USD: The cable tested a lower target at 1.39 from where it stabilized. Below 1.3890, a next bearish target could be 1.3860 followed by 1.38. Given that the pair is in oversold territory, a pullback becomes more likely now with short-term resistances seen at 1.40 and 1.4050.

DAX: The index traded recently sideways and made it difficult for traders to benefit from small sideways swings. We nee to see a break above 15810 in order to shift the focus towards a higher target at 15880. A support area is however seen between 15590 and 15530.

Have a wonderful weekend.

We wish you good trades!

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U.S. Dollar Trades Slightly Higher Against Major Peers

The U.S. dollar traded slightly higher against other major peers Tuesday.

The British pound retreated from its high around 1.4250 and fell back below 1.42, trending lower towards 1.4140. While much of yesterday’s downward move can be attributed to the dollar’s rebound ahead of Friday’s NFP report, concern over a new coronavirus strain in the U.K. contributed to the bearish movement.

If the GBP/USD falls below 1.4120 we expect further losses towards 1.4050 whereas a renewed break above 1.42 could lead to a test of 1.4270 and possibly even 1.4320.

There is nothing new to report in the EUR/USD and we continue to watch out for prices between 1.23 and 1.2080.

DAX: As expected, the index found a short-term resistance at around 15680 from where we saw a slight reversal. A next higher target is 15700. On the downside, we expect the price area between 15250-15150 to act as a support.

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Looming Fed Taper Talks Buoy The U.S. Dollar

The U.S. dollar and Treasury yields edged up Wednesday as investors weigh the possibility of a reduction in stimulus. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman for Supervision Randal Quarles said yesterday it will be important for the Fed to begin discussing in coming months plans to reduce its bond purchases. As we noted in previous posts, the next important Fed meeting will be on June 15-16.

Today we will have some U.S. data on tab such as jobless claims, GDP, durable goods and pending home sales that could affect the dollar’s price action in the afternoon.

Technically, we got what we have been looking for, at least in the EUR/USD where we saw a bearish price breakout sending the pair lower towards 1.2170.

Trading within the GBP/USD’s sideways range, however, has proved difficult as of late and thus we continue to wait for better trading conditions in this pair. Falling below 1.4070 we expect the cable to head for a test of the lower support area around 1.4030-20, whereas above 1.4160, bulls may attempt to push the pair towards a renewed test of 1.4230.

The DAX found a short-term support at 15400. If the index falls below 15350, we will shift our focus to the lower support at 15100. On the upside, a next target is 15630.

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Risk-On Mode Continues

And the market’s risk-on mode continues with the anti-risk U.S. dollar depreciating against other currencies. Consequently, we saw both euro and cable heading towards higher levels Thursday, slowly approaching overbought territory. While growth optimism is currently overshadowing the latest Fed minutes, we bear in mind that a Fed policy shift could happen sooner rather than later should the economic recovery continue at its current pace. And such a shift would buoy the dollar trade in the medium-term.

However, as long as we are risk-on we will keep tabs on higher targets in both currency pairs.

GBP/USD: Breaking significantly above 1.42, we see a next target at 1.4250. On the downside there is a current support at around 1.4120 and if the cable breaks below that level we may see a correction towards 1.4070.

EUR/USD: If the euro is able to overcome the 1.2250-hurdle and further 1.2270 we will shift our focus to a higher target at 1.2340. If the pair falls however back below 1.2150, it may extend the slide towards 1.2120 and 1.21.

DAX: Traders in the DAX were again able to book a good profit amid the index’s volatile swings. We now focus on a higher target at 15580 while a crucial support is seen at 15000.

Have a good weekend.

We wish you good trades!

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Der Aufwärtstrend gibt den Ton an – jedoch könnten die Inflationsängste der Spielverderber sein

Willkommen zu einer neuen Handelswoche.

Der U.S. Dollar beendete die letzte Woche schwächer gegenüber seinen Gegenspielern nachdem die U.S. Einzelhandelsumsätze im April stagnierten infolge des starken Anstieges vom Vormonat. Ungeachtet der jüngsten Schwächephase des Greenbacks werden die Inflationssorgen das Hauptgesprächsthema am Markt bleiben und Investoren werden das Protokoll der letzten FOMC Sitzung (Mittwoch) genaustens unter die Lupe nehmen. Es wird nach Hinweisen gesucht, welche auf den Zeitplan einer Reduzierung des Federal Reserve Stimulus hindeuten könnten. Während sich Marktakteure auf eine eher frühere als spätere Wende in der Geldpolitik der Fed einstellen, so sagte Cleveland Fed Präsidentin Loretta Mester in einem Bloomberg Interview am Freitag, dass die Geldpolitik momentan sehr gut passe. „Jetzt ist nicht die Zeit um irgendetwas an der Geldpolitik anzupassen. Es ist die Zeit des Abwartens und Beobachtens und Sehen wie sich die Erholung entwickelt“ so Mester.

Abgesehen von dem FOMC Sitzungsprotokoll könnte es eine interessante Woche für das Pfund Sterling werden, denn das Vereinigte Königreich wird Daten zum Arbeitsmarkt, den Einzelhandelsumsätzen sowie der Inflation bekannt geben.

Ungeachtet des fundamentalen Hintergrunds, werden wir uns auf das technische Bild in den Währungspaaren konzentrieren.

GBP/USD

Der Trend ist unser Freund und basierend auf dem vorherrschenden Aufwärtstrend in diesem Paar werden wir ein höheres Ziel bei rund 1.4220 anvisieren. Potentielle Gewinne könnten dann auch bis zum Februarhoch bei 1.4243 ausgeweitet werden. Eine aktuelle Unterstützung bleibt derweil intakt bei 1.40, sollte jedoch der Cable unter diese wichtige Barriere rutschen, so käme als nächstes Ziel 1.3950 in Betracht – die untere Aufwärtstrendkanalbegrenzung.

EUR/USD

Während der primäre Aufwärtstrend augenscheinlich ist, werden wir auf kurzfristige Kursbarrieren innerhalb des bullischen Trends achten. Auf der Oberseite sehen wir eine nächste Hürde bei 1.22 und sollte dieses Level signifikant nach oben gebrochen werden, so könnte eine Aufwärtsbewegung in Richtung von 1.23 und 1.2350 folgen. Auf der Unterseite, sollte der Euro unter 1.2080 rutschen, so rechnen wir mit weiteren Verlusten Richtung 1.2040 und 1.20.

DAX

Die Volatilität war bemerkenswert hoch in den letzten Tagen und der Index stieg von einem Tief nahe der 14800-Unterstützung bis zu einem Hoch von 15500, der oberen Begrenzung der aktuellen Seitwärtsspanne. Ein Ausbruch über 15520 könnte den primären Aufwärtstrend wieder aufleben lassen mit einem nächsten Hoch bei 16000.

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Prevailing Uptrend Set The Tone But Inflation Fears Could Be The Game Changer

Welcome to a new trading week.

The U.S. dollar ended last week lower against other peers after U.S. retail sales stalled in April following a sharp advance in the prior month. Regardless of the greenback’s most recent decline, inflation fears will be front and center in the market and investors will scrutinize the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s latest meeting on Wednesday for any hints of a timeline for reducing stimulus. While market participants are bracing themselves for a sooner rather than later shift in the Fed’s monetary policy, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in a Bloomberg interview on Friday that the Fed’s policy is in a good place right now. “This is not the time to be adjusting anything on policy. It really is a time for watchful waiting, seeing how the recovery evolves” Mester said.

Aside from the FOMC minutes, it could be an interesting week for the pound sterling as the U.K. is due to release data on employment, retail sales and inflation.

Notwithstanding the fundamental backdrop, we will focus on the technical picture in the currency pairs.

GBP/USD

The trend is our friend and based on the prevailing uptrend in this pair we will focus on a higher target at around 1.4220 with a potential extension of gains towards the February high at 1.4243. A current support is however intact at 1.40 and if the cable dips below that crucial barrier, a lower target could come in at 1.3950 – the lower boundary of the latest uptrend channel.

EUR/USD

While the overall uptrend is obvious, we will pay attention to short-term price barriers within the bullish trend. On the upside we see a next hurdle at 1.22 and if this level is significantly breached to the upside, we may see another leg up towards 1.23 and 1.2350. On the downside, if the euro breaks below 1.2080, we expect more losses towards 1.2040 and 1.20.

DAX

Volatility was notably higher in recent days with the index surging from a low near its current support at 14800 to a high of 15500 – the upper boundary of the index’s recent sideways range. Breaking above 15520, the DAX could resume its uptrend towards a higher target at 16000.

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Greenback With A Tailwind After Inflation Jump

U.S. consumer prices surprised the market yesterday with the highest increase in 13 years. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida said he was surprised by the jump, but that it should prove largely transitory. Market participants however question the Fed’s control of inflation amid concern that the central bank might wait too long to address the increase while the U.S. is overheating.

As expected, the greenback advanced against other peers in reaction to the CPI report.

EUR/USD: The pair tumbled towards 1.2050 on the back of a strengthening dollar. If the 1.2050-level breaks, the next target is 1.20 where we see a crucial support. On the upside we expect the 1.2150-area to serve as a resistance while a break above 1.2160 could reinvigorate bullish momentum towards 1.22.

GBP/USD: More bearish momentum could be in store as long as the cable remains below 1.4140. It will be interesting now whether the 1.40-support holds. Below 1.3990 we target the 1.3920-mark.

DAX: We expect the index to fluctuate between 15300 and 14980. A break above 15340 could push the DAX higher towards 15500 whereas a downside break of 14950 could lead to further losses towards 14800.

We wish you good trades!

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