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Consolidation Amid Low Volatility?

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The U.S. dollar sold-off across the board amid falling U.S. Treasury yields following the lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data report last week. The lower inflation print eliminated the likelihood of further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, giving traders green light to begin pricing in more rate cuts next year.

The weakening dollar in turn, boosted other currencies such as the euro which climbed above 1.09 and seems to be on its way towards a test of 1.10 now.

The British pound lagged behind in its upward trend against the greenback and finds itself still between 1.25 and 1.24. A break above 1.2550 could open the door for a run towards 1.2620 and possibly even 1.2680.

This week there are no high-impact events scheduled for release with a shorter trading week in the U.S. because of the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday. The absence of high-profile events could translate into consolidation of the recent market moves with the potential for further upside for the euro, DAX and pound.

We recommend traders not to expect too much in the next days, take smaller profits or even do a trading break.

 

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

Overbought Territory Amid Low Volatility

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Last week was characterized by significant bullish moves across the greenback’s counterparts. The U.S. dollar sold-off sharply after the June inflation report surprised to the downside. Given the strength of the latest upward moves and with both EUR/USD and GBP/USD overcoming key technical hurdles, we expect some further upside potential.

On Wednesday, the UK inflation report will be released and if there are signs that inflation is falling, the pound could correct from its heavily overbought territory.

GBP/USD: A higher resistance is seen between 1.3150 and 1.32. The pair remains, however, in deeply overbought territory, increasing the chances for a consolidation phase. A support is now seen at 1.2850.

EUR/USD: Remaining above 1.12, the focus shifts to higher resistances at 1.14 and 1.15. A current support could lie at 1.11.

Summer doldrums: We advise traders not invest too much or doing a trading break since volatility typically remains at very muted levels during the summer months of July and August. When volatility is low, there is more to lose than to gain.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Low Volatility Ahead?

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Last week ended with an increase in risk sentiment with the euro and British pound strengthening against the U.S. dollar and the DAX jumping back towards 16200. Friday’s U.S. PCE index came in lower-than-expected, erasing recent gains in the dollar.

The U.S. markets will be shut for the Independence Day holiday tomorrow, which could result in a quiet trading session to the start of the week.

On the economical docket, the only interesting data release will be the U.S. labor market report on Friday.

We bear in mind that the summer doldrums now in July could lead to quieter trading conditions and less chances to profit. Traders should therefore not invest too much, trade with smaller positions or just take a summer trading break.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Is The U.S. Dollar Over-Sold?

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The U.S. dollar weakened across the board since the market has been pricing in an increasingly dovish Federal Reserve. However, traders worry that the latest sell-off could be an overcorrection in the greenback. The U.S. jobs report came in better than expected, showing 263k jobs in November and a steady 3.7 percent unemployment rate. This means that the jobs market remains tight which is not something the Fed will like to bring inflation down.

From a fundamental perspective, this week’s economic calendar is relatively light. Traders are looking towards next week’s central bank decisions for potential drivers.

Technical view

EUR/USD

The upward correction appears to be somewhat overstretched with the euro now testing the upper descending trendline of its primary downtrend. If the euro breaks above 1.0620, bulls may try to push it towards 1.07 and 1.0770 but given overbought price levels, a correction towards 1.0370 becomes more likely.

GBP/USD

Similar is the picture in the cable. The recent upward movement looks overstretched while entering a resistance zone between 1.2250 and 1.2650. Given the straight-lined upward movement we anticipate pullbacks towards 1.2050-1.20.

Our trading ideas for today 5/12/22:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0590

Short @ 1.0530

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2330

Short @ 1.2270

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 14580

Short @ 14490

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2022 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Focus on Yellen’s Testimony

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Dear traders,

The U.S. dollar retreated ahead of U.S. Treasury Secretary-designate Janet Yellen Senate confirmation hearing later today. Yellen is expected to affirm the U.S.’s commitment to a market-determined dollar value and her comments may serve as a fresh catalyst for the greenback, giving the green light for the dollar’s long-term downtrend.

EUR/USD: The euro found a halt at 1.2050 from where prices reversed. As written in our analysis from Monday we now see a next resistance at around 1.2150.

GBP/USD: The pound broke below 1.3530 but the downward move was not sustained as the greenback’s momentum ebbed. This morning we see the cable again above 1.36 and pencil in potential further gains towards 1.3640.

Daily Forex Signals:

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EUR/USD

Long @ 1.2120

Short @ 1.2035

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.3630

Short @ 1.3565

DAX® (GER30)

Long @ 13980

Short @ 13870

 

Results 2020:

December 2020: +318 pips

November 2020: +75 pips

October 2020: +432 pips

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Georgia Election Runoff to Serve as Main Catalyst

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While there were no big market movements Tuesday, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD ended the trading day in higher territory. Reason for the upward tendency was a weakening U.S dollar which traded at its lowest since February 2018 against its major peers. Georgia senate runoff election results contributed to the dollar’s weakness and selling pressure could accelerate if democrats take control of the senate by winning two seats in the Georgia election runoff. If, however, senate republicans maintain their majority, the dollar could strengthen. Key elections in Georgia serve as an important catalyst in the market as they will decide which party controls the U.S. Senate for the next two years, setting the scope of President-elect Joe Biden’s agenda.

The results are expected today, so we might see some volatile movements in USD crosses.

Technically, we saw the euro surging to a high of 1.2326 amid broad-based dollar weakness but with the election results still to be announced, the pair rebounded from its highs. Traders now might pay attention to a price breaks either above 1.2350 or below 1.2250 but higher volatility should nevertheless be taken into account.

The cable bounced off the 1.3650-hurdle but a renewed rise above 1.3630 could prompt the pair for a break above 1.3650 and lead to another test of 1.37 or even 1.3740. On the downside we see an important support around 1.3450.

 

Daily Forex Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2021 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Global Equities Rally, U.S. Dollar Weakens

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Dear traders,

Global equities were on course for the best month on record amid a usually quiet Thanksgiving holiday week.

The U.S. dollar held its decline while speculation that Coronavirus vaccines and a possibly peaceful presidential transition are steps toward normalization in the economy drove U.S. shares higher and the Dow Jones to a record high.

Elsewhere, the euro benefited from the dollar’s weakness and rose back above 1.19 this morning. Also, the DAX was spurred by the market’s rally and touched an early September-high at 13383.

The only currency pair that treated water Tuesday was the GBP/USD remaining within an 80-pips trading range.

Today we have some key events coming up:

USD: Minutes of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting are due in the evening (19:00 UTC)

USD: U.S. jobless claims, GDP and personal spending data (13:30 & 15:00 UTC)

GBP: U.K. expected today to deliver the government’s spending plans for next year.

 

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2020 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Dollar Slips On Trump Comments

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Dear Traders,

Despite a relatively quiet start to the new week, buyers in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD were able to book some profit.

During the Asian session we saw the U.S. dollar extending its slide against its major peers after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump who said that he was “not thrilled” with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s raising of interest rates. Trump said the Fed should be more accommodating on rates helping him to boost the economy. Consequently, the dollar gave up some of its gains, pushing other counterparts higher in return.

Whether this could be the end of the dollar’s summer rally remains to be seen and hinges on trade talks between China and the U.S. as well as on the Fed’s point of view in terms of tighter monetary policy.

 

Announcement: MaiMarFX’s Chief Currency Strategist will commence her maternity leave in a few weeks. There will be no signal service while she remains on maternity leave. Daily analysis and signals will be paused until the end of the period of maternity leave.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

USD Falls On White House Instability, EUR And GBP Trend Upwards

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Dear Traders,

The pound was yesterday’s best performer while GBP/USD broke above a descending trend line that is held in the cable since January. As mentioned in previous analysis, we now take a rather bullish stance in this pair but recommend long-term oriented traders waiting for a bullish break of the 1.40-barrier.

The U.K.’s Spring Budget statement has helped the pound to regain some strength as growth forecasts were upgraded.

U.S. CPI data, on the other side, was not strong enough to alter Fed rate hike expectations and thus, the dollar weakened against other major peers. The next FOMC meeting is on March 21 but with inflation holding steady, market participants are bracing for a dovish rate hike next week.

Meanwhile, the dollar came under increased pressure as White House instability continues. U.S. President Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and this sudden staff turnover comes only one week after Gary Cohn resigned from the White House. Trump administration concerns generally pose a threat to the greenback.

GBP/USD: The pound broke out of its triangle formation and headed towards 1.40. We now wait for a sustained break above that psychological barrier in order to anticipate further gains towards 1.4070 and 1.4150. A lower support is seen around the 1.3830-level.

EUR/USD: The euro traded with a tailwind on the back of a weakening dollar while breaking above 1.2370. As expected in Monday’s analysis, that upside break encouraged bulls to drive the euro toward a test of 1.24 and it will be interesting whether the single currency is able to stabilize above that level.

Today we will listen to ECB President Draghi’s speech at 8:00 UTC and keep an eye on the U.S. Retail Sales Report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

U.S. Dollar Sells-Off On Trade-War Concerns

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Dear Traders,

Tuesday’s price action was characterized by ongoing U.S. dollar weakness. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD traded upwards as traders saw little reason to push the USD higher with the trade-war-theme still overshadowing the markets. Even though U.S. politicians have attempted to soften President Trumps ‘trade war rhetoric’, global concerns about a trade-war intensified. White House economic adviser Gary Cohn resigned as the U.S. administration prepares to impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum, which Cohn had opposed.

The dollar sold-off and pushed other major currencies higher in return. Whether the euro and pound could onto their high levels remains to be seen as event risks loom with the ECB meeting and Brexit talks posing a threat.

EUR/USD: The euro broke above 1.2370 and headed towards 1.2430 on the back of a weakening dollar. We now expect a next hurdle to come in at around 1.2450 but advise traders to keep taps on the overbought situation in this pair.

GBP/USD: The pound traded with a tailwind and climbed above 1.39. For bullish momentum to continue the cable would need to stabilize above 1.3850. If the pound remains above 1.3860 we expect a potential test of the 1.40-resistance zone.

From the U.S. we have the ADP Employment Change due for release at 13:15 UTC which could provide a foretaste of what to expect from Friday’s NFP report.

Daily Forex Signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co