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Dollar Slips On Trump Comments

Dear Traders,

Despite a relatively quiet start to the new week, buyers in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD were able to book some profit.

During the Asian session we saw the U.S. dollar extending its slide against its major peers after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump who said that he was “not thrilled” with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s raising of interest rates. Trump said the Fed should be more accommodating on rates helping him to boost the economy. Consequently, the dollar gave up some of its gains, pushing other counterparts higher in return.

Whether this could be the end of the dollar’s summer rally remains to be seen and hinges on trade talks between China and the U.S. as well as on the Fed’s point of view in terms of tighter monetary policy.

 

Announcement: MaiMarFX’s Chief Currency Strategist will commence her maternity leave in a few weeks. There will be no signal service while she remains on maternity leave. Daily analysis and signals will be paused until the end of the period of maternity leave.

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USD Falls On White House Instability, EUR And GBP Trend Upwards

Dear Traders,

The pound was yesterday’s best performer while GBP/USD broke above a descending trend line that is held in the cable since January. As mentioned in previous analysis, we now take a rather bullish stance in this pair but recommend long-term oriented traders waiting for a bullish break of the 1.40-barrier.

The U.K.’s Spring Budget statement has helped the pound to regain some strength as growth forecasts were upgraded.

U.S. CPI data, on the other side, was not strong enough to alter Fed rate hike expectations and thus, the dollar weakened against other major peers. The next FOMC meeting is on March 21 but with inflation holding steady, market participants are bracing for a dovish rate hike next week.

Meanwhile, the dollar came under increased pressure as White House instability continues. U.S. President Trump fired Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and this sudden staff turnover comes only one week after Gary Cohn resigned from the White House. Trump administration concerns generally pose a threat to the greenback.

GBP/USD: The pound broke out of its triangle formation and headed towards 1.40. We now wait for a sustained break above that psychological barrier in order to anticipate further gains towards 1.4070 and 1.4150. A lower support is seen around the 1.3830-level.

EUR/USD: The euro traded with a tailwind on the back of a weakening dollar while breaking above 1.2370. As expected in Monday’s analysis, that upside break encouraged bulls to drive the euro toward a test of 1.24 and it will be interesting whether the single currency is able to stabilize above that level.

Today we will listen to ECB President Draghi’s speech at 8:00 UTC and keep an eye on the U.S. Retail Sales Report scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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U.S. Dollar Sells-Off On Trade-War Concerns

Dear Traders,

Tuesday’s price action was characterized by ongoing U.S. dollar weakness. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD traded upwards as traders saw little reason to push the USD higher with the trade-war-theme still overshadowing the markets. Even though U.S. politicians have attempted to soften President Trumps ‘trade war rhetoric’, global concerns about a trade-war intensified. White House economic adviser Gary Cohn resigned as the U.S. administration prepares to impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum, which Cohn had opposed.

The dollar sold-off and pushed other major currencies higher in return. Whether the euro and pound could onto their high levels remains to be seen as event risks loom with the ECB meeting and Brexit talks posing a threat.

EUR/USD: The euro broke above 1.2370 and headed towards 1.2430 on the back of a weakening dollar. We now expect a next hurdle to come in at around 1.2450 but advise traders to keep taps on the overbought situation in this pair.

GBP/USD: The pound traded with a tailwind and climbed above 1.39. For bullish momentum to continue the cable would need to stabilize above 1.3850. If the pound remains above 1.3860 we expect a potential test of the 1.40-resistance zone.

From the U.S. we have the ADP Employment Change due for release at 13:15 UTC which could provide a foretaste of what to expect from Friday’s NFP report.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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U.S. Dollar Weaker Ahead Of NFPs

Dear Traders,

The best performing currency pair on Thursday was the EUR/USD, which took another glimpse above 1.25 but was yet unable to hold that level. Our yesterday’s long signal has proved profitable while euro bulls lie in wait for a next leg up, targeting at 1.27. The question whether the single currency could be vulnerable to further gains will mainly depend on the demand for dollars following today’s U.S. labor market data.

One reason for the euro’s surge were reports that some ECB policymakers are pushing President Mario Draghi to give investors clearer guidance on when rates might rise. In a nutshell, these rumors confirm that the ECB is comfortable with the euro’s appreciation.

The most prominent event risk on the last trading day of this week will be the January Non-Farm Payrolls at 13:30 UTC and if payrolls exceed expectations combined with an uptick in wage growth we could see the dollar recovering some of its recent losses. However, traders should bear in mind that given the dollar’s strong downtrend, market participants might be inclined to sell USD at higher levels.

Recently, the release of the monthly NFP report failed to generate extreme volatility in the market, which is why traders now brace for a more muted market reaction. Whatever the case, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios.

EUR/USD

The current uptrend channel is still intact and after the euro refrained from falling below 1.2385 the chances are in favor of further bullish momentum, driving the pair towards 1.2650 and possibly 1.27.

GBP/USD: There has been no significant correction in the recent performance of the cable with the pair following a clear uptrend. How the cable will trade within the next hours will however depend on the outcome of the payrolls. If the pound finds its way above 1.43 we focus on higher targets at 1.4380 and 1.4450. For bearish momentum to accelerate, the pound would first need to fall below 1.4220 and further 1.4185.

Have a beautiful weekend!

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

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Potential U.S. Government Shutdown And Germany’s Coalition Talks In Focus

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar continues to disappoint dollar bulls while being unable to find its footing against other major currencies. Market participants remain focused on the political risk potential around the U.S. government shutdown, which could take effect at the end of today’s trading day if no budget deal is reached. With developments in Washington being the primary focus, the dollar could remain under pressure.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index is due at 15:00 UTC, but this report might only have a limited impact on the greenback.

The pound sterling gained further ground against the dollar and seems to be well on track to recover its post-Brexit referendum losses. The GBP/USD followed the recent uptrend and climbed back above 1.39 after finding fresh support at 1.38. If the pound holds above 1.3850 we could see a bullish run for 1.40 and possibly 1.4040.

The U.K. Retail Sales report is due at 9:30 UTC today and could have a minor impact on the pound’s price action.

The Euro held above 1.22 but traders should be aware of profit-taking ahead of the upcoming ECB meeting next week. There is increased speculation that ECB President Draghi will seek to talk the Euro lower following its rapid appreciation. Apart from the ECB’s monetary policy, there will be a vote by the Social Democrats in Germany to begin talks regarding a grand coalition this weekend. If the SPD votes against a coalition the euro could suffer a setback.

From a technical perspective we keep tabs on the 1.2350-level which could serve as a short-term resistance in the EUR/USD. Euro bears should however wait for prices below 1.2190 in order to expect accelerating bearish momentum.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2018 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Euro And Pound Soar Amid Low Liquidity

Dear Traders,

The euro and pound sterling have soared to fresh highs amid low trading volumes. The upward movement in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD was not only driven by low liquidity but also by a weakening U.S. dollar. While trading volume was low with most U.S. market participants being offline for the long holiday weekend, we saw some remarkable movement Wednesday providing us profitable trades. There was some dovish tilt in the Fed minutes which contributed to the dollar’s weakness. While a rate increase in December is almost certain, there was some concern that price pressures would fall short of the Fed’s inflation target for longer. Those remarks cooled rate hike expectations for 2018 and drove the dollar lower in turn.

The EUR/USD broke out of its recent downtrend channel and rose towards 1.1840. Whether we will see a follow-through of the recent upward trend remains to be seen but should be viewed with a critical eye. We expect a next resistance to come in at 1.1880, provided that the euro breaks the 1.1840-barrier significantly. However, given the quiet trading conditions we recommend not expecting too much. A current support is seen at 1.1750.

The GBP/USD headed towards the 1.3340-threshold and it will be interesting now whether the cable is able to break the 1.3350-level significantly or bounces back from its highs. Above 1.3360 we expect accelerated bullish momentum towards 1.34 and 1.3450. A near-term support is however seen at 1.3250.

The U.K. GDP report is due for release at 9:30 UTC and could have a major impact on the pound provided that changes are made to the revisions.

Most action is expected to take place during the European trading hours while trading should be quieter afterwards. Happy Thanksgiving to all of our U.S. traders!

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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USD Weakness Sends EUR And GBP Soaring

Dear Traders,

While the House passed its version of tax bill Thursday, the U.S. dollar was little impressed and plunged during the Asian session amid low trading volumes.

The EUR/USD traded higher in the early European trading hours and we now focus on the 1.1850-barrier, which could prove crucial in terms of further bullish momentum. If the euro is able to stabilize above 1.1850, the next target is 1.1905. Sellers should, however, wait for a break below 1.1720 in order to sell euros towards 1.1670 and 1.1580.

Most attention will be paid to a speech of ECB President Mario Draghi today at 8:30 UTC, which could affect the euro’s price action.

The British pound soared on new Brexit optimism. After the U.K. has shown a “willingness to conclude a positive outcome” according to German MEP Manfred Weber, the EU is growing more confident that the current Brexit impasse will be broken and that exit talks will progress. While there might be some room for further gains in the GBP/USD, we bear in mind that as long the pair remains range-bound between 1.3340 and 1.30 there is no directional bias.

We wish you a nice weekend.

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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USD Dips On Concerns Over Tax Cut

Dear Traders,

We finally saw larger market swings Thursday with the EUR/USD finding directional bias toward the North.

The catalyst for the weakening USD was news the U.S. Senate would delay tax cuts to the corporate rate until 2019 and while a delay is not what dollar bulls want to hear right now, they sold dollars on the news.

EUR/USD: We got the price breakout we were looking for in yesterday’s technical analysis. After the break above 1.1605 the euro gained ground against the dollar and rose towards 1.1655. If the euro breaks above 1.1660 we may see a run for 1.1685 and possibly the crucial resistance zone of 1.17-1.1730. On the bottom side, we focus on dips below 1.1570 and 1.1550, that could reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum.

GBP/USD: The price action in the cable remains messy. As long as there is no directional bias, traders may have to struggle with false breakouts. We are still looking for profitable price breakouts either above 1.3165 or below 1.3090.

U.K. Manufacturing Production figures are scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC and could have a minor impact on the pound.

From the U.S. we have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment due for release at 15:00 UTC but this report is not expected to have a major impact on the dollar.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

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Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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EUR/USD: 1.19 Could Be A Make-It Or Break-It Level

Dear Traders,

Yesterday was dominated by a weakening U.S. dollar, which extended its slide against the euro and British pound after the market interpreted the FOMC minutes as slightly dovish. While Fed policy makers see another rate hike this year, many issued concern that low inflation was not a temporary phenomenon. The priced-in probability of a December rate hike is still unchanged around 75 percent but if Fed officials believe that inflation could stay low for longer, then they might be less inclined to stay committed to a steep rate hike path in the future. The minutes were neither more dovish nor more hawkish but market participants interpreted the increasing concern about inflation as dollar-negative.

The focus now shifts to tomorrow’s U.S. Consumer price report, which, if positive, could boost the dollar.

EUR/USD

The euro rose steadily up to a high of 1.1878 and the linear movement seems quite an atypical performance of the market. The 1.19-level could now serve as a ‘make-it’ or ‘break-it’ barrier. If the euro is able to break significantly above 1.1910, we expect further gains towards 1.20 and possibly even the September high of 1.2092. If the price, however, remains below the 1.19-barrier, the euro could start giving up some gains and may fall back towards 1.1780. Moreover, we bear I mind that the RSI index approaches overbought territory, a situation that could limit near-term gains in the euro.

ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a speech today at 14:30 UTC in Washington and if he touches on monetary policy the euro could respond to his comments with volatile swings.

The GBP/USD traded range-bound between our entry levels at 1.3235 on the upper and 1.3175 on the lower side. During the Asian trading session, the pound sterling was finally able to break above 1.3235 and rose to a high of 1.3265. As mentioned in previous analysis, we expect a next resistance near 1.33 and this level could be crucial for the future price development in the cable.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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USD Crashes Post FOMC; Euro Trades Surprisingly Resilient

Dear Traders,

The FOMC statement sent the U.S. dollar into a tailspin and drove other major currencies to fresh highs. While the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement came in as expected, the market interpreted it as dovish. The reason was that, the policy statement contained too much concern over inflation to give the dollar a boost. While the Fed indicated that it would start unwinding its balance sheet “relatively soon”, a change in language from “later this year” in the June statement, it said inflation remains below the central bank’s 2 percent target even as near-term risks to the economic outlook appear balanced. That fueled speculation the Fed won’t rush to raise interest rates.

The dollar fell sharply post FOMC and pushed the euro and British pound to new highs. EUR/USD hit a fresh 2-year high on the way to 1.18 while GBP/USD broke above 1.31. Given the strong uptrend, bulls might tend to extend gains to 1.18 in the euro and 1.32 in the cable. Nonetheless, we bear in mind that EUR/USD and GBP/USD are in lofty highs, the risk for stronger pullbacks is thus increased.

U.S. Durable Goods Orders are scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC and could have a short-term impact on the greenback.

Daily Forex signals:

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View our daily signal alerts http://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co