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Euro And British Pound Flying High

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Dear Traders,

After the euro’s strong performance from Tuesday, the cable followed with a rise towards 1.30. A reason for the pound’s flight were hawkish rate comments made by Bank of England Governor Carney who said the BoE may need to begin raising interest rates and will debate a move in the next few months. “Some removal of monetary stimulus is likely to become necessary” Carney said on Wednesday in Sintra, Portugal. The pound sharply strengthened in response to his remarks.

Technically, the GBP/USD broke out of its recent downtrend channel and is currently headed towards 1.30. Buyers should pay attention to higher prices above 1.3060 in order to buy pounds towards 1.32. A current support is however seen at 1.28.

Traders who traded the EUR/USD Wednesday had a tumultuous session with the currency pair fluctuating choppily between 1.1390 and 1.1290. Everything from profitable breakouts till loss-making fake-outs was included in yesterday’s trading but at the end of the day, we were able to post a small profit.

Meanwhile, the euro was torn between the market’s (mis)interpretation of Draghi’s recent upbeat remarks, suggesting the beginning of the ECB’s withdrawal from its accommodative policy, and the central bank’s back paddling afterwards. The conflicting ECB signals sent the euro on a roller coaster ride but the follow through of the euro’s latest rally had a greater impact than quelling speculation. Consequently, the euro broke above 1.1390 and tested the 1.1420-level. Given the strong uptrend in the EUR/USD we expect the euro to continue its rally towards 1.15/1.1550. If the pair touches 1.15, sellers may take the opportunity and jump back in. A pullback towards1.13 however, may attract the attention of buyers.

From the Eurozone we have the German Consumer Price scheduled for release at 12:00 UTC, a report which could have an impact on the euro.

The U.S. GDP report due for release at 12:30 UTC will be of interest for dollar traders.

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British Pound Virtually Unchanged Ahead Of U.K. Election

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Dear Traders,

The British pound gapped slightly lower after the latest terror incident in London, in which seven people were killed and 48 were injured. The attack comes just days before the June 8 general U.K. election which is considered a big event for sterling traders. The latest polls indicate the Conservatives’ lead over Labour has shrunk to between 1 and 12 percentage points, indicating a tightening race. If Prime Minister Theresa May is not getting the increased majority she is hoping for, sterling could suffer further losses.

Friday’s NFP report proved disappointing even if the May jobs data were not bad enough to curtail the expectations for a Fed rate hike this month. While the U.S. dollar remained under selling pressure, the euro benefited the most from the greenback’s weakness and rose to a high of 1.1285. It will now be interesting whether the euro is able to tackle the hurdle at 1.13. Above that level, we see a next resistance at 1.1350, whereas the 1.12-level could lend a short-term support for the euro.

GBP/USD

In short-term time frames we see that prices narrowed, formatting a symmetrical triangle which could predict upcoming price breakouts. A break above 1.2910 could result in an upswing towards 1.2950 while a decline below 1.2850 could drive the pound lower towards 1.28.

This week’s economic calendar is fairly light in terms of market moving data. The only highlight will be the U.K. election and the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday which can be market moving events.

The service-sector ISM survey is scheduled for release today at 14:00 UTC but with the NFP report behind us, this report might not attract much attention.

In short, it could be a quiet start to the new week but let us be surprised.

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No Hope For Dollar Bulls?

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Dear Traders,

We welcome you to a new trading week. Last week ended with a spike high of 1.1212 in the EUR/USD while continuing U.S. dollar weakness remains the dominant market theme. The greenback still struggles to gain ground as political instability fears weigh on the Federal Reserve’s rate hike outlook. Investors fear that political chaos in the Trump administration may derail Trump’s plans for expansionary fiscal policy and thus deter the Fed from raising interest rates.

However, not all hope is lost for dollar bulls and if political uncertainties are abating, shifting the focus back to the administration’s fiscal program, the U.S. dollar could be poised for recovery. In the meantime we will mainly pay attention to the technical outlook in both major currency pairs.

The economic calendar this week is rather light in terms of market moving data. From the U.S., the most interesting pieces of data will be Friday’s GDP figures and Durable Goods Orders following Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes. Upbeat minutes may revive the dollar trade with market participants pricing in a more than 80 percent chance that the Fed will raise rates again in June.

The EUR/USD knew only one direction: upwards. From a technical perspective we now expect a next hurdle to come in around 1.13. Below 1.1070, however, the euro may drops towards a test of the 1.10-support.

The cable remained sideways whilst being accompanied by a slight upward tilt. We now expect the GBP/USD to trade between 1.3060 and 1.29.  A break above 1.3070 may send the pound towards 1.32.

Sterling traders should pay attention to any changes in the U.K. GDP figures, scheduled for release on Thursday.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Euro Traders Profit From Weakening U.S. Dollar

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar is taking its cue from political turmoil surrounding the Trump administration. In times of political uncertainty and unpredictability in the U.S., many investors got rid of their dollar positions which contribute to the recent dollar weakness. The euro, in return, benefited from the weakening greenback and rose towards 1.1175. There is no major resistance until 1.12, so euro bulls may tend to test that level before taking profits on euro long positions. Following the strong rally in the EUR/USD and four consecutive days of higher highs the pair finds itself in overbought territory, a fact that increases the likelihood of near-term corrections.

While we see a next hurdle at around 1.12, a break above 1.1220 could push the euro even higher towards 1.13. However, traders should now prepare for potential corrections. Current support levels are seen at 1.11, 1.1080 and 1.1020.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release from the Eurozone but it might be worth watching ECB President Draghi‘s remarks on monetary policy when he speaks in Tel Aviv at 17:00 UTC.

The pound sterling was accompanied by a slight upward tilt, even if the 1.30-resistance level still remains unbroken. Once that level is breached to the upside, we could see sterling rising towards 1.3040 and possibly even 1.3120.

The U.K. Retail Sales report is due for release at 8:30 UTC and could have an impact on the price action in the cable. If the pound drops back below 1.2930 it could find a next halt at around 1.2870.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro Bulls Profit From U.S. Dollar Weakness

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Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar traded lower against the euro and British pound after U.S. retail sales and CPI data fell short of estimates. Following Friday’s softer reports, the odds for a Federal Reserve rate increase next month have fallen to about 70 percent, even though data was still good enough to bolster the case for tightening in June.

EUR/USD

The euro rose towards its 1.0950-resistance after re-testing the current support zone ranging from 1.0855 to 1.0820. We will now pay close attention to a renewed break above 1.0950 which could result in a climb towards 1.1050.

Despite the low-volatile market environment there might be a catalyst for some swings throughout this week. The German ZEW Survey is due for release on Tuesday, followed by the Eurozone Consumer Price Report which is due on Wednesday and a speech of ECB President Draghi on Thursday.

GBP/USD

The pound sterling remained range-bound between 1.2990 and 1.2845 and traders still wait for, at least, a test of 1.30. It could be an interesting week for sterling traders with U.K. Consumer Prices (Tuesday), Employment data (Wednesday) and Retail Sales (Thursday) scheduled for release. Most of these reports are expected to surprise to the upside, so we may see a run for 1.30 and possibly even a test of 1.3050.

A bearish break below 1.2750 however, could increase bearish momentum towards lower targets around 1.26.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

All Eyes On Draghi: Will He Talk Down The Euro?

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Dear Traders,

The British pound finally broke above 1.2865 this morning and a next hurdle could now be at 1.29. If the pound rises above 1.2910 we may see a run for 1.30. Let’s us wait and see.

The much anticipated U.S. tax plan disappointed investors as it left too many unanswered questions and did not reveal anything new. The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro and pound as a result. The “phenomenal” tax plan came in as a one-page list of bullet points and was largely devoid of detail.

Euro traders will shift their focus to the European Central Bank meeting while no changes are expected from the central bank. ECB President Mario Draghi will most likely maintain a dovish monetary policy stance since a strong euro is the biggest problem for policy makers and makes it more difficult for the ECB to achieve its inflation target. In a nutshell, we doubt that Draghi is debating an exit from its extraordinary stimulus. With no fresh insights, the ECB meeting could thus be a non-event for traders but let us be surprised.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Will Payrolls Inject Momentum To The Sluggish Market?

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Dear Traders,

Overall, yesterday’s trading was not to our liking with the euro remaining confined to its three-week range between 1.0640 – 1.05 and the cable trading choppily in between our daily entry levels. In a nutshell, there was more to lose than to win from an unsteady market environment.

The euro benefited from a positive assessment of the euro-area economy while the ECB’s monetary policy stance has not fundamentally changed. The ECB statement came in as expected while Mario Draghi said downside risks to the euro zone economy were less pronounced. Even if the next change from the ECB will be towards removing accommodation and not adding stimulus, it is still too early for a shift in monetary policy.

The EUR/USD rose to a high of 1.0615 and that was it. The price development remained relatively moderate and major market moves are still lacking. The short-term bias has slightly changed in favor of the bulls but it is the appetite for U.S. dollars that will dictate the price action and thus, traders are eagerly waiting for the March Non-farm Payrolls to determine direction.

The GBP/USD was moving sideways between 1.2195 and 1.2135. Unfortunately, our entries were placed on top and below that sideways trading range. Therefore we have been struggling with false breakouts. U.K. Industrial production is due for release at 9:30 UTC but this report will take a backseat to the highly anticipated NFP report.

Today’s U.S. jobs report is the last top event risk before the Fed meeting next week. A healthy report is widely expected but the expectations are very high. Hence, there is a risk of disappointment, which would carry a higher impact than an upbeat report.

We wish you good trades and a beautiful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Trump’s Promises Are Not Enough To Lift The USD

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Dear Traders,

There is still nothing new to report at this time. No trend, no breakout and consequently no sustained profit. It is thus difficult for day traders to benefit from directionless market swings.

When will a breakout finally come? This is the key question amongst traders and the answer could lie in President Trump’s speech to the joint-session of Congress today. His speech could be a catalyst as long as he provides enough details about his purported stimulus plan. During a speech on Monday, Trump promised that “we’re going to start spending on infrastructure, big”, without giving any details but promises alone are not enough to put an end to the dollar’s lethargy. With no reassuring details the greenback could suffer further pullbacks. Either way, we will prepare for higher volatility during his speech and hope for some larger market moves.

Trump’s speech is set for today at 21:00 ET (Wednesday morning 2:00 a.m. UTC).

The euro rose against the greenback but gains were limited to a high of 1.0630. EUR/USD bulls shall now wait for a break above 1.0620 and 1.0660 whereas bears may profit from a downside break of 1.0520. If Trump delivers details on his spending plans, we could see the euro free-falling against the dollar.

The British pound initially dropped against the dollar on reports that PM Theresa May’s team is preparing for Scotland to potentially call for an independence referendum. However, the impact was short-lived and the pound ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the dollar. We still wait for a break below the important support at 1.2380 in order to sell sterling towards 1.2250. On the upside, the 1.2550/70 level remains a crucial resistance for sterling bulls.

Before Trump’s address to Congress, we will watch important economic data such as the U.S. GDP figures, due at 13:30 UTC, followed by Consumer Confidence at 15:00 UTC.

We wish you good trades!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

USD Continues Weakness, Next Price Levels To Watch Out For

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Dear Traders,

Thursday’s best performer was the British pound which broke upward through the 1.25-resistance. The next barrier will now be at 1.2582 and the pound must overcome this hurdle in order to boost bullish momentum towards 1.2680 and 1.2770. The recent rise can be attributed to the declining demand for U.S. dollars rather than sterling strength. For dollar bulls to regain attention, the pound will need to fall back below 1.2415. As long as the GBP/USD remains trading above that level, we shift our focus to a break of 1.2582/1.26.

The EUR/USD trended upwards but the upward movement was limited to a daily high of 1.0595. With no major market movers scheduled for release today, the euro might extend its gains towards 1.0620 on a weakening dollar. Euro bears shall however focus on a renewed break below 1.0540.

U.S. New Home Sales due at 15:00 UTC will be of secondary importance.

We wish you good trades and a wonderful weekend!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Market Ignored FOMC Minutes, U.S. Dollar Strength Is Still Awaited

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Dear Traders,

Following the FOMC minutes, nothing has actually happened in the market and it appears that market participants have completely ignored the possibility of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the upcoming meeting. The minutes showed that Fed officials see a hike ‘fairly soon’, confirming the hawkish bias while nothing in that report directly suggested that a March hike is off the table. The market however, has interpreted the minutes to be less hawkish as Fed policy makers expressed confidence they can take their time raising interest rates as there is little risk of an overshooting of inflation.

In summary, yesterday was none of our favorite trading days as we have hoped for larger market movements and more profitable swings.

The euro bounced off the 1.0490-support and recovered some losses after the U.S. dollar failed to gain strength from the minutes. We now expect the EUR/USD to trade within a range of 1.0615 and 1.0450.

The technical picture in the GBP/USD remained virtually unchanged with the pound continuing to trade sideways. The risk is however tilted to the downside and if the pound drops back below 1.2425 we see a higher possibility of upcoming bearish momentum towards 1.2385 and 1.2350. On the upside, we will wait for a significant break above 1.25 in order to shift the focus towards higher price levels.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today and thus the price action could hinge on the appetite for USD. Given the fact that the Fed is currently the only central bank that is on track to raise rates, we generally expect further strength in greenback.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co