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Dollar Weakness Continues

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The greenback continued to weaken against the euro and British pound. While the euro was Thursday’s best performer, rising towards 1.0680 and providing euro bulls a good profit, there was less consistency in the performance of the pound sterling. The pound traded sideways after peaking at 1.2524 and buyers had to be content with a modest profit. U.K. Retail Sales are due for release at 9:30 UTC but this report is not expected to have a significant impact on the pound.

Apart from the second-tier U.K. Retail Sales report, there are no major economic reports scheduled for release today and thus, the price action might be oriented towards resistance- and support levels. Let’s have a look at the current important price levels:

  Resistances Supports
EUR/USD 1.0705

1.0750

1.0775

 1.0630

1.06

1.0550

 

  Resistances Supports
GBP/USD 1.2550

1.26

1.2675

 1.2440

1.2410

1.2330

We wish you a relaxing weekend.

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There Is No Reasonable Explanation For The Dollar’s reversal

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Dear Traders,

It seemed as if dollar bulls just sought an excuse for taking profits on dollar positions after the U.S. dollar rose to new highs on evidence of firming inflation. Whereas for the U.S. all signs are pointing to higher inflation and thus, higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, there was no reasonable explanation for the sharp reversal of the USD towards the end of the trading day. During the House Financial Services Committee hearing, conservatives Republicans pressed Fed Chair Janet Yellen to concede that economic growth is still disappointing and that the Fed has failed to fix underlying problems. For the most part, Yellen’s tone was positive, defending the Fed’s efforts that had contributed to strong job growth. The only negative point during the hearing was that Yellen acknowledged that economic growth has been “quite disappointing”. This seemed to be the reason for the weakening dollar in short-term time frames.

The EUR/USD traded higher, heading towards 1.0630 and it will now be interesting whether the 1.0660-resistance is going to hold. If the euro breaks through 1.0665/70 we expect accelerated bullish momentum towards 1.0710 and possibly even 1.0750. A current support area is however seen at 1.0580-60. If the euro falls back below 1.0560 it could extend its losses towards 1.0510.

The pound sterling ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the greenback. A break above 1.2520 could boost bullish momentum but we bear in mind that the barrier at 1.2550 is still unbroken. Crucial support levels are seen at 1.2350 and 1.2310 and as long as the pound remains firmly above these zones we will rather focus on higher price levels.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today and those of you who have already made a good profit this week, shall better not reinvest their profits.

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Can The Pound Hold Onto Its Gains? Carney Will Decide

/in /by

Dear Traders,

At the end of the day, the FOMC meeting has proved to be a non-event for traders with the Federal Reserve holding interest rates flat and providing no new insights on the pace of future rate hikes. As expected, there were no surprises and so the U.S. dollar resumed its decline against its major peers. The Fed reiterated its intention to raise rates gradually as the labor market tightens and market participants will now shift their focus to Friday’s jobs report. Due to the fact, that the FOMC statement did not appear overly hawkish, an imminent rate hike in March is increasingly unlikely.

The euro rose again towards 1.08 after marking a short-term support around 1.0730. Traders are eagerly waiting for the euro to break through the 1.0810-barrier and once that level is breached we may see the euro further rising towards 1.0870. Current supports are seen at 1.0715 and 1.0660. From the Eurozone, there will be no major economic reports scheduled for release today so we expect the price action to depend on the demand for dollars.

ECB president Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 12:15 UTC but today’s speech is not expected to have a major impact on the euro.

Today will be a big day for sterling traders with the Bank of England publishing its quarterly inflation report alongside the MPC statement and rate decision. Moreover, BoE governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference following the announcement. While the BoE is expected to stand pat, policymakers may revise up its growth and inflation forecasts. Inflation is on the rise and for Carney it could be a communicative challenge to keep monetary policy unchanged in the face of accelerating price growth. Investors suspect that the central bank might shift its bias from neutral to slightly hawkish while traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of a hike than a cut. This assumption is expressed in the pound’s recent rise.

The BoE will release its Quarterly Inflation Report and rate decision at 12:00 UTC, followed by a press conference 30 minutes later.

GBP/USD

The pound is facing its resistance zone at 1.2730-75. Whether this barrier could give way hinges on the BoE statement. Above 1.2685 a test of 1.2720/30 becomes increasingly likely. On the downside, the 1.26 support is intact. Below that level we may see the pound tumbling towards 1.2550/20.

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Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Traders Prepare For Weaker Payrolls – Are They Right?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

It’s payrolls day and the dollar is clearly tending toward weakness ahead of the first relevant event of the year. Yesterday’s employment data came in mixed with private-sector payroll growth slowing in December while the non-manufacturing ISM index was in line with expectations. Many market participants expect the December employment figures to be weaker, putting the greenback under further selling pressure in the run up to the report. Even if this assumption is correct, wage growth will take center stage in today’s job report. After disappointing November figures average hourly earnings are expected to tick up to 0.3 percent and it is precisely this or a stronger uptick that is needed to put the dollar back in the bullish track. If, however, all key figures of the report disappoint, the greenback will suffer further losses. Let’s wait and see.

The Non-Farm Payrolls report is scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC today.

The euro took a glimpse at the upper side of 1.06 but was not able to hold onto that high level. It will now hinge on the jobs report whether there is still room for further gains toward 1.0650/70. On the downside, traders should keep an eye on the 1.0480-support level. Below 1.0480 we expect the euro to fall back toward the 1.04-mark.

The British pound rose above 1.24 but fell back into its former 1.2350-90-resistance area, which now could prove as a new support for the pound. Below 1.2350 we see a lower bound at around 1.2320. If the pound declines below 1.2270 we expect the bias to shift from bullish to bearish. Above 1.2440, however, we may see a continuation of the upward move, heading for 1.25 and 1.2550. But the price action will depend on the outcome of the payrolls.

We wish you a beautiful and relaxing weekend.

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Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2017 Maimar-FX.

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Will U.K. CPI Data Push The Pound Above 1.27?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar weakened against most major currencies on Monday. Ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve statement investors are concerned that US-policymakers were to flag the risk of a strengthening dollar on the U.S. economy, suggesting that the dollar rally has gone too far. Most of the dollar gains have come about as a result of expectations that Trump will enact policies that increase spending as well as spur growth and inflation. It remains to be seen how the political program will look like during Trump’s term as president while the details of an eventual fiscal-spending program are still written in the stars.

The euro tested the 1.0650-level and our yesterday’s long-entry has proved successful. We will now wait for the euro to overcome the 1.0665-barrier in order to focus at higher targets at 1.0710 and 08. On the bottom side, the 1.0470-support remains intact. Euro traders should keep an eye on the ZEW Survey, due for release at 10:00 UTC. The euro might tend to strengthen ahead of that report.

Particular attention will be paid to the British pound and the U.K. Consumer Price report scheduled for release at 9:30 UTC. CPI data is expected to show an uptick in November which is why the pound may appreciate against the greenback ahead of that report. We will focus on an upside break above 1.27, which could drive the pound towards higher targets at 1.2770 and perhaps even 1.2870. A current support is however seen at 1.2530.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Payrolls Report To Determine Direction

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar suffered a significant correction after the ISM Manufacturing index showed an unexpected contraction in August, raising doubts about global growth optimism. The British pound started to rise against the greenback in the wake of an unexpected strong U.K. manufacturing PMI, showing signs of expansion in the U.K. after the Brexit vote. Even though our buy order in the GBP/USD was triggered slightly later due to high slippage around the release time of the U.K. data, we were able to get a piece of the pie and secure some profit.

The euro flirted with the 1.12-level on the back of a weakening dollar and it will be interesting to see whether the euro is able to hold onto its higher price level going into the highly anticipated U.S. jobs report. Economists predict job growth will slow to 180k in August from 255k in July. While traders are waiting for the payrolls to determine the direction in the market, there is a risk that the outcome could disappoint the market’s high expectations. However, we will prepare for both bullish and bearish scenarios but advise traders to trade the payrolls report with caution.

The U.S. Jobs Report is scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC. Sterling traders should also keep an eye on the U.K. Construction PMI due at 8:30 UTC.

We wish you profitable trades and a wonderful weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Volatile Swings Expected Throughout The Entire Week

/in /by

Dear Traders,

We welcome you to the trading month of August. While markets are usually quieter during this summer month, the first week of August might be different this year as we have big market movers ahead of us. Before the highly anticipated U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, due for release on Friday, traders will scrutinize the ISM Manufacturing (Monday) and ISM Non-Manufacturing index (Wednesday). Apart from these market-moving reports, sterling traders prepare for a volatile week as the Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates and add stimulus to stem a potential fallout from Brexit. Analysts predict an aggressive action from the BoE, which could increase the pressure on the British pound. The BoE will announce its rate decision alongside the release of its Quarterly Inflation Report on Thursday. While the overall bias remains bearish for the pound, traders should prepare for volatile swings ahead of “Super-Thursday”. The sentiment only changes from bearish to bullish in case of a sustained break above the resistance area at 1.3485/1.35. On the other side however, if sterling is not able to break below 1.30 in order to reinvigorate fresh bearish momentum, we expect the current sideways trend to continue.

The U.S. dollar weakened against its counterparts after the U.S. GDP expanded at less than half the rate economists had forecast. The weak domestic data led to speculation the Federal Reserve may push back a rate increase to 2017. The focus therefore shifts to the U.S. labor market report this week and it would need an ambiguous strong report to help the dollar.

EUR/USD

The euro rallied towards 1.12 on the back of dollar weakness and broke above a secondary downward channel while it is now facing the higher resistance line of its primary downward channel at around 1.13. Gains might be limited until that level, whereas the 1.11-level could lend a short-term support to the euro.

Chart_EUR_USD_4Hours_snapshot1.8.16

Important economic data for today:

7:55 EUR German Manufacturing PMI

8:30 UK Manufacturing PMI

14:00 USA ISM Manufacturing

(Time zone: UTC)

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Slumped as Fed September Rate Hike Seems Unlikely

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The euro and British pound rebounded strongly against the U.S. dollar after bearish momentum failed to drive both currency pairs significantly lower. Ultimately, short-traders’ efforts did not pay off and we suffered losses with yesterday’s short-entries.

The Federal Reserve is more upbeat about the economic outlook, saying that near-term risks to the U.S. economy have diminished and that job gains were strong, the FOMC statement showed. However, there was no indication of the specific timing of the next potential rate hike and with Esther George being the lone hawk, it has not been enough for the greenback to maintain it strength. Consequently, traders gave up on dollar long positions as they see only little chance of a rate hike in September. The market is now pricing in a 50-50 chance of a rate increase in December.

The euro rose towards 1.1080 on the back of broad based dollar weakness. We now see a next resistance around the 1.11-level which could limit the gains in the EUR/USD. If the euro breaks above 1.1130 it could head for a renewed test of 1.1160. However, if prices fall back below 1.10 we will favor a bearish stance.

The British pound marked a strong support at 1.3060 from where it reversed. Given the recent sideways trend we will now focus on an upper bound at 1.33, whereas the 1.3060-level is seen as the lower bound of the cable’s trading range. Above 1.3350 the sentiment may shift in favor of the bulls but we expect short-term gains to be limited until 1.3410/50.

There are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. The German Unemployment report (due at 7:55 UTC) may have a short-term impact on the euro but the price action will depend on risk appetite.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Euro And Cable Benefited From Weakening U.S. Dollar

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The euro and British pound benefited from the weakening U.S. dollar, which fell sharply after U.S. Housing data slumped more than projected in March. Moreover, the euro is currently supported by speculation European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is unlikely to announce further monetary easing at the ECB meeting tomorrow. While the central bank’s easing measures start to take effect, the danger for the ECB is the currency strength of the euro, undermining the economic improvements. Draghi could therefore try to talk down the currency but since the central bank rhetoric has somewhat ceased to have effect, the euro could even extend its recent uptrend instead of being vulnerable to losses.

Ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting we expect the euro to range-trade between 1.1410/30 and 1.1335. Above 1.1430, upside extensions are possible until 1.15, whereas below 1.1330, the euro may fall back towards 1.1250/20.

GBP/USD

The British pound climbed above 1.44 but found a current resistance around the 1.4420-level. The U.K. Labor Market report is scheduled for release today at 8:30 UTC and should have an impact on the pound. If data surprise to the upside, sterling could extend its gains towards 1.4450 and 1.4490. However, traders should bear in mind that the currency pair trades near crucial resistance levels and reversals are becoming more likely.

Looking at the 4-hour chart we see an overall downtrend and a current consolidation phase. Prices recently fluctuated within 1.4450 and 1.4050. If GBP is able to break significantly above 1.4430/50, we could see a test of 1.45. However, if the pair refrains from trading above 1.44, we favor the downtrend and focus on lower targets at 1.4310, 1.4260 and 1.42.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot20.4.16

From the U.S. we have Existing Home Sales and Crude Oil Inventories scheduled for release at 14:00 and 14:30 UTC.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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Will U.S. Payrolls Trigger A Second Round Of Dollar Weakness?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Choppy fluctuations in the GBP/USD Thursday left much to be desired for traders. Any upward movements were oriented towards the rising trend-line, limiting further gains in the currency pair. The short-lived downward move during the release of the Bank of England’s inflation report also failed to show sustained momentum. In the light of the latest inflation forecast the outlook has become cloudy, at least until 2018. The Bank of England cut its inflation forecast once again, while the Monetary Policy Committee voted 9-0 to keep rates on hold. The MPC reflected the possibility of greater persistence of low inflation in the near-term, while the forecast shows inflation will rise in two years.

In a nutshell, the bearish bias is likely to continue into the second half of 2016 before a trend reversal.

The euro appeared to be unaffected by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who said on Thursday that policy makers must not surrender to low inflation and reiterated the ECB’s dovish monetary policy stance. On the contrary, the EUR/USD preferred the upward trend on speculations the Fed will delay tightening policy.

Going into today’s’ highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report, the current weakness of the U.S. dollar is dominating the markets and we are eager to see whether payrolls data will trigger another round of dollar weakness.

The odds are in favor of further dollar weakness as the January U.S. jobs report is forecast to show a smaller expansion, rising only by 190K last month. The focus will also be on Average Hourly Earnings and if payrolls and wage growth surprise to the downside, the USD is in trouble.

As the expectations are very high, trading is very risky at the time when payrolls are due for release. Traders should therefore use a proper risk management in order to avoid disappointments.

Non-Farm Payrolls are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT.

Have a nice weekend.

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co