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Upcoming breakouts?

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Dear Traders,

While the British pound experienced a rollercoaster ride, trading choppily sideways between 1.4020 and 1.39, the euro continued its recent downward trend against the U.S. dollar Tuesday. The greenback strengthened after the ISM index showed a higher reading, adding to evidence that the pressure on manufacturing may be easing.

Nevertheless, both of our major currency pairs failed to show sustained movements yesterday, raising the chances of upcoming break-outs – perhaps as early as today. Dollar bulls are eager to see whether the labor market is showing further signs of improvement and today’s ADP report may provide a little foretaste of the NFP report. However, disappointing ADP numbers could prompt investors to refrain from any long dollar positions ahead of Friday’s high risk event.

The euro dropped as low as 1.0834 but ended the day unchanged against the dollar. Consequently, the technical outlook has not changed and a downside break of 1.08 could be a next possible scenario. On the upside we will focus on a break above 1.09, which could drive the euro towards 1.0950/60.

GBP/USD

Traders had to struggle with sharp fluctuations and false breakouts within a narrow 100-pip trading range. Given the recent consolidation we expect a breakout in the near-term, triggering fresh momentum. Current resistances are seen at 1.4030 and 1.4070, whereas support levels are seen at 1.3905 and 1.3850.

The U.K. Construction PMI is scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT and could have a short-term impact on the GBP.

Important economic data for today:

9:30 UK Construction PMI

10:00 UK BoE’s Broadbent speaks

13:15 USA ADP report

15:30 USA Crude Oil Inventories

(Timezone GMT)

Daily Forex signals:

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Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

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EUR/USD To Remain Under Pressure- Focus On 1.08

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Dear Traders,

Those who traded the British pound Monday had to have patience as the cable provided only later some gains towards the 1.3950-barrier. After a false bearish break-out below 1.3840, GBP recovered its losses and is currently facing a next resistance at 1.3950. Once it breaks above 1.3965, we might see a renewed test of 1.40/1.4020.

The most important U.K. data will be Manufacturing PMI scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT and if data surprises to the downside, we expect sterling to fall back below 1.39. A lower target could be at 1.3820.

The euro traded lower against the U.S. dollar on speculation the European Central Bank will add further stimulus at the ECB’s next meeting on March 10. Euro-area inflation turned negative in February putting pressure on the central bank to consider further easing. Within the next few days we expect the euro to trend lower against the greenback. For the time being, we focus on the 1.08-mark, which could act as a current support for the EUR/USD. Bearish momentum could accelerate with a break below 1.0770.

Traders should keep an eye on important economic data such as the German Unemployment report, due at 8:55 GMT and from the U.S. the ISM Manufacturing index, scheduled for release at 15:00 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Chances For Breakouts Increase After Yesterday’s Consolidation

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Dear Traders,

Not much has happened on Thursday apart from several false break-outs that have led to a poor performance. It seemed that the currency market took a breather before establishing new trends. Both major currency pairs traded sideways within narrow ranges and strained trader’s nerves. Only this morning we saw a slight upward trend, driving the euro toward 1.1070 and the cable above 1.40. Currently we are looking for break-outs above 1.1080 in the EUR/USD and above 1.4020 in the GBP/USD.

Nevertheless, euro traders should be cautious with bullish engagements below 1.11/1.1120 as the euro is likely to come under pressure ahead of the next European Central Bank meeting in March considering the ECB’s easing bias. Bullish momentum could thus be limited until 1.1150. Before heading towards the 1.11-level a small hurdle could be at 1.1092. On the bottom side the 1.10-level remains in focus.

The GBP/USD trades currently around the 1.40-level. If the pair is able to break above 1.4020/35 we may see a relief rally towards 1.4085 and 1.4120. A current support could be at 1.3920 and sterling bears should wait for a significant break below 1.39/1.3880 in order to sell GBP toward lower targets.

The performance of the U.S. dollar will mainly hinge on important economic data, such as GDP reports, scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT as well as spending figures and PCE indices, due at 15:00 GMT. In case of any surprises we could see strong fluctuations in the greenback.

Euro traders should keep an eye on German Consumer Prices scheduled for release at 13:00 GMT.

We wish you profitable trades and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Back In Focus: CPI To Determine Direction

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD experienced short breakouts of their recent trading ranges but ended the day more or less unchanged against the U.S. dollar. While the euro dropped below the 1.11-level the pair was able to stop its fall just slightly above the current support at 1.1070. The cable, however, traded higher on hopes the UK could reach a deal with the EU on terms of Britain’s membership. As negotiations could last for some time before reaching an agreement and even then, Brexit concerns are not off the table, the pound could be vulnerable to larger losses at any time.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. Retail Sales report scheduled for release along with Public Finances at 9:30 GMT. Retail sales are forecast to show an increase and if figures beat expectations, GBP could head for a renewed test of 1.44 and further 1.4425 and 1.4445. Below 1.4270 we favor a bearish stance, shifting the focus to lower levels at 1.4250 and 1.42.

The euro bounced back from the 1.1070-level and climbed above 1.11 again. Whether the common currency is able to stay above that level remains to be seen and could hinge on the appetite for U.S. dollars. U.S. Consumer Prices are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT and if CPI data surprise to the upside the greenback could rally in response. Bear in mind that a break below 1.1070 could send the euro quickly towards 1.1050 and 1.0990. Current resistances are seen at 1.1150 and 1.12.

We wish you many green pips and a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

FOMC Minutes Could Fail To Be A Big Market Mover

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Break-out traders who had hoped for larger fluctuations in the EUR/USD have been disappointed by yesterday’s inconsistent performance. In addition, we had a bit bad luck with our short-entry and had to give up some of our previous gains. Sterling traders, however, were able to take advantage of high volatility in the GBP/USD and gain profits in both directions.

All eyes will be on the FOMC minutes today, but it is doubtful whether the Fed meeting minutes will be a big market mover. Given the last monetary policy statement and Yellen’s latest remarks on the economy, the Fed’s stance is anticipated to be neutral to slightly dovish, which would be dollar-negative in the near-term. Looking back on the trading day of the last Federal Reserve meeting, we saw the EUR/USD trending upwards, while the GBP/USD was trending downwards. While we do not expect today’s FOMC minutes to have a major impact on the currencies, we expect the euro trade higher against the greenback ahead of the minutes, whereas the cable could be vulnerable to further losses.

For the British pound, the most important piece of data will be today’s U.K. labor market report scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT. While the unemployment rate is forecast to show a decline, the focus will be on wage growth, which is expected to expand at a slower pace. If Weekly Earnings fall short of expectations, we could see sterling tumbling towards 1.42 and 1.4150.

GBP/USD

The cable broke below its recent trading range and currently tests the lower trend line of its secondary uptrend channel. If the pair breaks below 1.4265 and further 1.4240 next lower targets are seen at 1.4208, 1.4150 and 1.4130. On the upside, the currency pair would need to break significantly above 1.4370 and further 1.4410 in order to rally towards 1.4475 and 1.4550.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot17.2.16

 

Important economic data for today:

9:30 UK Labor Market Report

13:30 USA Housing Data & PPI

19:00 USA Fed Minutes

(Time zone GMT)

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

Will Yellen Help Breathing New Life Into The U.S. Dollar?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The U.S. dollar has become more fragile following the global market turmoil. Until recently, the greenback was considered a safe haven currency but the roles have reversed. Since the Federal Reserve set up a policy tightening path amidst global economy slowing and other central banks turning to negative rates, the U.S. dollar lost a large part of its demand. Investors are sceptical whether the Fed can continue raising interest rates this year, making the long-dollar trade unattractive.

Fed chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to appear before the House Financial Services Committee today at 15:00 GMT and market participants will be scrutinizing her remarks for hints of whether the Fed may downplay chances of a March rate hike. Even though the U.S. job market has been surprisingly strong, many analysts believe the central bank could shift to a dovish tone, preparing the market for no changes next month. However if Yellen keeps the door open to possible tightening in March, we could see the dollar strengthening. We will wait and see and prepare for high volatility at the time of the testimony.

Before the main event risk, sterling traders should keep an eye on U.K. Industrial and Manufacturing Production, scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT. The cable traded between 1.4515 and 1.4378 providing no clear direction. While today’s price action will be determined by investor’s appetite for U.S. dollars, we will focus on the following important price levels:

  Resistances Supports
GBP/USD 1.4520

1.4545

1.46

1.4640

 1.4375

1.4350

1.4245

1.4150

 

  Resistances Supports
EUR/USD 1.1330

1.1380

1.1450

1.15

 

 1.1155

1.1105

1.1070

1.0980

 

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

Will U.S. Payrolls Trigger A Second Round Of Dollar Weakness?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Choppy fluctuations in the GBP/USD Thursday left much to be desired for traders. Any upward movements were oriented towards the rising trend-line, limiting further gains in the currency pair. The short-lived downward move during the release of the Bank of England’s inflation report also failed to show sustained momentum. In the light of the latest inflation forecast the outlook has become cloudy, at least until 2018. The Bank of England cut its inflation forecast once again, while the Monetary Policy Committee voted 9-0 to keep rates on hold. The MPC reflected the possibility of greater persistence of low inflation in the near-term, while the forecast shows inflation will rise in two years.

In a nutshell, the bearish bias is likely to continue into the second half of 2016 before a trend reversal.

The euro appeared to be unaffected by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who said on Thursday that policy makers must not surrender to low inflation and reiterated the ECB’s dovish monetary policy stance. On the contrary, the EUR/USD preferred the upward trend on speculations the Fed will delay tightening policy.

Going into today’s’ highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report, the current weakness of the U.S. dollar is dominating the markets and we are eager to see whether payrolls data will trigger another round of dollar weakness.

The odds are in favor of further dollar weakness as the January U.S. jobs report is forecast to show a smaller expansion, rising only by 190K last month. The focus will also be on Average Hourly Earnings and if payrolls and wage growth surprise to the downside, the USD is in trouble.

As the expectations are very high, trading is very risky at the time when payrolls are due for release. Traders should therefore use a proper risk management in order to avoid disappointments.

Non-Farm Payrolls are scheduled for release at 13:30 GMT.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Upcoming Breakouts?

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Not much has happened yesterday. While the euro slightly extended its gains as far as 1.0940, the British pound fluctuated more or less sideways versus the U.S. dollar. The limited fluctuations in both currency pairs did not permit any sustained profit for traders on Tuesday.

Ahead of Bank of England’s Quarterly Inflation Report and monetary policy announcement on Thursday we expect GBP to trade nervous between 1.4470 and 1.4310/1.4290. The Bank of England is forecast to keep interest rates on hold until after Britain’s referendum on EU membership. In the medium term, investors are pessimistic and pushed back their expectations on the timing of a rate hike. The U.K. Services PMI is scheduled for release at 9:30 GMT and may spur the cable for a breakout of its narrow trading range.

GBP/USD

Prices narrowed and formatted a symmetrical triangle this morning. Traders should focus on a breakout above or below that pattern, which may ignite fresh momentum in any direction.

Chart_GBP_USD_Hourly_snapshot3.2.16

EUR/USD

The technical outlook remains unchanged. Based on a symmetrical triangle in the daily chart, we will focus on an upside break of 1.0960 for any bullish and, vice versa, on a downside break of 1.0835 for bearish engagements.

Chart_EUR_USD_Daily_snapshot3.2.16

All eyes will be on ADP numbers and the ISM Non-Manufacturing index. Both reports are expected to show a small pullback in comparison with the previous month but if numbers show a steeper decline, the USD could further weaken.

13:15 USA ADP Employment Change

15:00 USA ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite

(Timezone GMT) 

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro and Sterling Rose Against The Greenback

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The euro and British pound traded higher against the greenback Monday. The best performing currency pair was the cable, which experienced a short squeeze and broke through all recent resistance-levels. A next resistance is seen at 1.4470/75 and if sterling is able to break above that level, we may see a test of 1.45. However, given the uncertainty surrounding the U.K. referendum, which is possible as early as June, the risk is to the downside for GBP/USD. Current support levels are seen at 1.4350, 1.4310, 1.4240 and 1.4180.

The EUR/USD flirted with the 1.09-barrier  but as long as there is no sustained break above 1.0915/25, the euro may drop back towards 1.0840 and 1.0810. On the upper side, the 1.0955/60-level remains in focus and euro-bulls should wait for prices above that level.

Meanwhile, ECB President Draghi reiterated the ECB’s plan to review its stimulus program in March and thus confirmed its dovish tilt. The euro is therefore more vulnerable to losses going into the next monetary policy meeting in March.

The German Unemployment report is scheduled for release at 8:55 GMT which could have a short-term impact on the euro if numbers surprise to the upside.

Sterling traders should keep an eye on the U.K. Construction PMI, due for release at 9:30 GMT.

Daily Forex signals:

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Markets Have Been Shaken By BOJ Surprise

/in /by

Dear Traders,

Investors’ risk appetite has strongly increased leading to a sharp increase in volatility. The high volatility was exacerbated this morning after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly adopted negative interest rates, sending the yen sharply lower and the U.S. dollar higher in return. The market responded with a dramatic move due to the fact that only a few economists expected that the BoJ would expand its already-record stimulus. The greenback appreciated against its major peers as a result. The euro came under selling pressure but quickly recovered its losses.

EUR/USD

Traders should focus on a break below 1.09 and further 1.0870. Once the 1.0870 is significantly breached we expect the euro to decline toward 1.0820. On the topside, the 1.0970-level will be in focus. If the euro breaks above 1.0975, we may see an upward extension until 1.10 and 1.1045.

Chart_EUR_USD_Hourly_snapshot29.1.16

The British pound traded in a 160-pip trading range Thursday, rising from its support level near 1.4240 towards next resistance levels at 1.44 and 1.4470. The upward movement was accompanied by volatile swings which resulted in a nice profit for sterling bulls at the end of the day.

GBP/USD

Still room for further gains? We see sterling trading within a current upward channel ranging from 1.4440 to 1.4285. Based on that channel, GBP may extend its gains towards 1.4440 or even the next resistance at 1.4470. Bearish movements, however, could be limited until 1.4285 and 1.4240.

Chart_GBP_USD_4Hours_snapshot29.1.16

 

Given the rise in volatility traders should pay attention to important data releases as currency pairs may react strongly to any surprises.

Important data today:

10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Price Index

13:30 USA Gross Domestic Product

(Timezone GMT)

We wish you profitable trades and a wonderful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co