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Ruhe vor dem Sturm?

Herzlich willkommen zu einer neuen Handelswoche.

Die letzte Woche war keine unserer bevorzugten Handelswochen, da beide Währungspaare eine Verschnaufpause einlegten und in engen Seitwärtsspannen verharrten. Der EUR/USD blieb zwischen 1,0620 und 1,0520 hängen, während der GBP/USD um 1,21 pendelte.

Mehr Volatilität war jedoch beim DAX zu beobachten, der in Richtung 14770 fiel und damit die untere absteigende Trendlinie seines jüngsten Abwärtstrendkanals traf. Auf der Grundlage dieses Kanals könnte es in den nächsten Tagen zu einem Pullback in Richtung 15150 kommen. Sollte jedoch die 14700 nach unten durchbrochen werden, könnte sich die Abwärtsdynamik in Richtung 14500 beschleunigen.

Was steht diese Woche an?

Während der große Elefant im Raum die eskalierenden Spannungen im Nahen Osten sein werden, liegt das Hauptaugenmerk auf der Zinsentscheidung der Europäischen Zentralbank am Donnerstag. Es wird erwartet, dass die EZB die Zinssätze unverändert belässt, sie könnte aber betonen, dass die Zinssätze für einen längeren Zeitraum hoch bleiben werden. Wenn EZB-Präsidentin Christine Lagarde signalisiert, dass diese Pause das Ende der aggressiven Straffungskampagne der Bank bedeuten könnte, wird der Euro gegenüber dem US-Dollar fallen. Lässt Lagarde hingegen die Tür für eine weitere Zinserhöhung zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt offen, könnte sich der EUR/USD in Richtung 1,07 erholen.

Darüber hinaus steht am Freitag die Veröffentlichung des US-PCE-Preisindex an.

 

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Wir wünschen gute Trades!

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

Copyright © 2023 MaiMarFX.

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Calm Before The Storm?

Welcome to a new trading week everyone.

Last week was none of our favorite trading weeks since both of our currency pairs have taken a breather and remained within tight sideways trading ranges. The EUR/USD remained stuck between 1.0620 and 1.0520 while the GBP/USD hovered around 1.21.

More volatility was however seen in the DAX which fell towards 14770 and thus hit the lower descending trendline of its recent downtrend channel. Based on that channel we may see some pullback towards 15150 in the next days but if 14700 breaks to the downside, bearish momentum could accelerate towards 14500.

What is in store this week?

While the big elephant in the room will be escalating tensions in the Middle East, the key focus is on the European Central Bank rate decision on Thursday. The ECB is expected to remain on hold and keep interest rates unchanged but could stress that rates will stay high for an extended period. If ECB President Christine Lagarde signals that this pause could mean the conclusion of the bank’s aggressive tightening campaign, the euro will fall against the U.S. dollar. If, on the other side, Lagarde leaves the door open for another rate hike at a later date, the EUR/USD could recover towards 1.07.

Furthermore, the U.S. PCE Price Index is scheduled for release on Friday.

 

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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Further Bearish Momentum?

The U.S. dollar roared back to life as safe haven demand increase due to concerns of escalation and spread in the Middle East.

As written in our last technical analysis, we prepared for renewed bearish momentum in both EUR/USD and GBP/USD which has proved to be key last Thursday and Friday.

Next targets to watch out for

EUR/USD: The euro retreated after hitting 1.0640 and thus the area around the upper descending trendline of the pair’s latest downtrend channel. It then fell back towards a test of 1.05. For accelerated bearish momentum we would need to see a break below 1.0480. A lower target is seen at 1.0350. Bulls on the other side, will wait for prices above 1.0620 in order to buy euros towards 1.07.

GBP/USD: The cable held above 1.2120 so far but it will depend on geopolitical tensions whether we will see a next leg down to 1.19. As for sterling bulls we recommend waiting for a renewed break above 1.23 in order to buy sterling towards 1.24.

DAX: The index is hovering the 15100 area but we prepare for further losses towards 14800. On the upside we see a strong resistance at around 15500 which could limit any bullish momentum for now.

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

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No Demand For Safe Havens?

Instead of benefitting from safe haven flows, the U.S. dollar paired losses this week. A reason for the dollar’s fall could be diminishing rate hike expectations since Federal Reserve commentary has had a more dovish feel when considering further rate hikes.

On Thursday the U.S. headline inflation is seen weakening to 3.6 percent y/y in September from 3.7 percent y/y in August. Lower core inflation in the coming months would support the recent cautious commentary from the Fed, which has been adding slight downward pressure to Treasury yields. This results in less demand for safe haven currencies.

EUR/USD

The euro rose towards 1.0620 – the upper descending trendline of the pair’s latest downtrend channel. If the pair is able to rise and stabilize above 1.0660, chances shift in favor of the bulls and we expect to see a recovery rally towards 1.0770. Bears on the other side will watch out for renewed price breaks below 1.0540 in order to anticipate further bearish momentum and thus, maybe a fresh break of 1.05.

GBP/USD

The cable climbed towards 1.23 and thus, a higher target at 1.2350 comes into play. However, we do not expect a straight-lined upward movement and prepare for corrections towards 1.2220 and maybe even 1.2110. Above 1.2360, however, the bias turns in favor of the bulls with a next target at 1.2420.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Middle East Crisis As Risk Factor

The news of violence erupting in the Middle East has roiled markets and despite the U.S. dollar’s haven status in times of trouble, the euro and British pound are (still) holding quite well against the greenback at the opening of this new week. The dollar even showed a reluctance to a further rally after Friday’s solid jobs report that saw 336k new jobs in September.

Following the shock of the Hamas attack in Israel over the weekend, the dollar opened only with a small upside gap.

However, the instability in the Middle East has the potential to reignite the greenback’s rally and may brings back the discussion about whether the euro may once again fall to parity.

Bob Savage, head of markets strategy at insights at BNY Mellon Capital Markets wrote in a note: The “dollar bid holds and the confusion over growth and inflation continues. We are more likely to see an escalation of conflict than a resolution both at home and abroad, in markets and in economics, in monetary and fiscal policy.”

Today is a holiday in the U.S. which may contribute to slipperier market conditions than usual on these days with less liquidity.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Weitere Dollarstärke?

Willkommen im Monat Oktober und zu einer neuen Handelswoche.

Nachdem sich der September als ein sehr guter und profitabler Handelsmonat herausgestellt hat (unsere Performance liegt bei +390 Pips im letzten Monat), sind wir zuversichtlich, dass wir auch im Oktober einige gute Trades erwischen werden.

Im vierten Quartal könnte sich die Stärke des US-Dollars weiter durchsetzen. Diese Annahme beruht nicht nur auf der Divergenz in der Geldpolitik zwischen der Europäischen Zentralbank und der Federal Reserve, sondern auch auf den Aussichten der Eurozone, dass sich die makroökonomischen Bedingungen in den kommenden Monaten erheblich verschlechtern könnten, wobei Deutschland, das oft als Wachstumsmotor der EU angesehen wird, nun der “kranke Mann Europas” ist. Mit anderen Worten: Da sich Deutschland in einer technischen Rezession befindet, liegt die Wirtschaft der EU am Boden.

Darüber hinaus werden die Risikoaversion und die verstärkte Nachfrage nach Fluchtmöglichkeiten den Euro und das Pfund Sterling zusätzlich unter Druck setzen.

EUR/USD: Solange der Euro unter 1,0615 bleibt, stellen wir uns auf weitere Verluste in Richtung 1,04 ein. Auf der Oberseite sehen wir einen kurzfristigen Widerstand bei etwa 1,0670.

GBP/USD: Unterhalb von 1,2230 erwarten wir weitere Abwärtsdynamik in Richtung 1,20. Für eine Beschleunigung des Bullendynamik hingegen, müssten wir einen Ausbruch über 1,23 sehen.

DAX: Unterhalb von 15600 bleibt die Tendenz bärisch, wobei der Fokus auf die 15000er-Unterstützung gerichtet ist.

 

Wir wünschen gute Trades!

Der Inhalt des Beitrags spiegelt die persönliche Meinung des Autors wider. Dieser übernimmt für die Richtigkeit und Vollständigkeit keine Verantwortung und schließt jegliche Regressansprüche aus. Dieser Beitrag stellt keine Kauf- oder Verkaufsempfehlung dar.

Copyright © 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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Further U.S. Dollar Strength?

Welcome to the month of October and a new trading week.

After September has proved a very good and profitable trading month, our performance is at +390 pips last month, we are confident that we will catch some good trades also in October.

In the fourth quarter the U.S. dollar’s strength might prevail. This assumption is not only based on the divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve, but also on the Euro zone’s prospects that macro conditions may deteriorate substantially in the coming months with Germany, often viewed as the driving force of the EU’s growth, being now the “Sick man of Europe”. In other words, with Germany being in a technical recession, the EU’s economy is in the doldrums.

Furthermore, risk aversion and increased haven demand will put additional pressure on the euro and pound sterling.

EUR/USD: As long as the euro remains below 1.0615, we prepare for further losses towards 1.04. On the upside we see a short-term resistance at around 1.0670.

GBP/USD: Below 1.2230 we expect further bearish momentum towards 1.20. For bullish momentum to accelerate we would need to see a break above 1.23.

DAX: Below 15600 the bias remains bearish with the focus turning to the 15000-support.

 

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

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Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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Risk-Off Mode

Bearish momentum accelerated, sending our trading instruments towards lower targets.

The reason behind the steep sell-off is the bond sell-off and rising yields in the U.S., buoying the dollar while making risk assets unattractive.

The euro knew no other direction than south and hit the crucial 1.05-support area. A downside break below 1.0480 could spark fresh bearish momentum towards 1.0290 and further 1.01. A current resistance is however seen at around 1.07.

The pound sterling fell below 1.2170 and headed towards 1.21. Our next lower target is 1.20 now.

The DAX slid below 15400, heading towards 15100. Watch out for prices below 15070 now. On the topside, a current resistance comes in at 15400.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 28/9/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0535

Short @ 1.0485

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2210

Short @ 1.2125

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15310

Short @ 15210

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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After Hawkish Fed Focus Shifts To BoE

As expected, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% and left the door open for one more rate hike before the end of the year. The Summary of Economic Projections showed 50bp fewer rate cuts in 2024 than previously indicated. The Fed sees just two rate cuts next year which would put the funds rate around 5.1 percent.

The U.S. dollar rose in the aftermath of the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric and pushed both euro and pound sterling lower in turn.

This morning we see GBP/USD trading around 1.23. Below 1.2270 we expect further losses.

The focus today shifts to the Bank of England rate decision (due 13:00 UTC) while the BoE could go either way. Previous expectations were firmly in favor of another 25bp rate hike today but yesterday’s U.K. Consumer Price Index showed softening inflationary pressures which is why market pricing significantly shifts towards a rate pause now. However, according to a statement from UK Chancellor Hunt saying that “Inflation is still too high” and “It’s all the more important to stick to our plan to halve inflation”. In other words, a BoE 25bp rate hike is still well in the cards.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 21/9/23:

 

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2380

Short @ 1.2290

Settings for all trades today: Entries from 8:00 am UTC, SL 25, TP 40

 

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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All Eyes On The Fed

Very little movement was seen in both pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD in the beginning of the week and before the FOMC meeting. In the euro we currently focus on a trading range between 1.08 and 1.06 while in the cable it will be interesting whether the pound also drops below 1.2330 and further towards 1.23. On the upside, resistance is seen at around 1.2550.

Today is Federal Reserve decision day and it is widely expected that the central bank will pause rate hikes. Instead, the focus will be on fresh economic projections and the dot plot forecast and whether another 2023 hike is in the cards. Traders expect that the Fed’s tightening campaign has ended. Thus, the U.S. dollar will rise if there are signals for further tightening, triggering a hawkish repricing of rate expectations.

The Fed decision and release of economic projections is scheduled for 18:00 UTC followed by the press conference 30 minutes later.

Daily Forex and DAX Signals:

If you are keen to know where we put Take-Profit and Stop-Loss, if we trade on a specific day or not and how we manage open positions, subscribe to our signals.

Our trading ideas for today 20/9/23:

EUR/USD

Long @ 1.0715

Short @ 1.0660

GBP/USD

Long @ 1.2435

Short @ 1.2330

DAX® (GER40)

Long @ 15740

Short @ 15640

Disclaimer: All trading ideas and expressions of opinion made in the articles are the personal opinion and assumption of MaiMarFX traders. They are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell a specific financial instrument.

We wish you good trades!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2023 MaiMarFX.

www.maimar.co

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