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U.S. Dollar Is In A State Of Limbo On Trump’s Policies

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Dear Traders,

The euro ended the day virtually unchanged against the U.S. dollar after it fell to a low of 1.0620. German inflation came in slightly below forecast, easing pressure on the European Central Bank to unwind its stimulus program. The greenback is however in a state of limbo as Donald Trump’s order on immigration overshadowed his promises to pursue pro-growth policies. Instead, the focus has been recently on trade and immigration. The dollar however, outperformed the pound sterling which fell towards 1.2465, providing a good profit for short traders. As the 1.2470/60-level is considered a major support we shall wait for prices below that support zone in order to sell sterling towards 1.2420. Around 1.2420 we may see some pullback before a potential break below 1.24 could send the pound towards 1.2250. A current resistance is however seen at 1.26.

EUR/USD

Head-Shoulders pattern could still be in play. Based on that pattern we expect a current resistance to be at around 1.0750. Thus, it could be rewarding to buy euros following a sustained break above 1.0750 while on the downside, the 1.0580-level remains in focus. It should be noted, that this pattern becomes void as soon as the euro breaks above 1.0770. Below 1.0580 we expect bearish momentum to accelerate.

Euro traders will watch the Eurozone Consumer Price report scheduled for release at 10:00 UTC, which could have an impact on the euro, provided that it exceeds expectations. Before that report, the German Unemployment report due at 8:55 UTC and ECB president Mario Draghi‘s speech at 8:00 may have a minor impact on the EUR/USD.

From the U.S. we only have Consumer Confidence scheduled for release at 15:00 UTC. Moreover, any action or word from Mr. Trump will dominate the markets.

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Profitable Trading Week

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Dear Traders,

In brief, we got what we were looking for: The ECB delivered a surprise which was initially misinterpreted and we realized a good profit from trading both bullish and bearish breakouts in the EUR/USD.

Let’s quickly analyze what had happened: When the ECB announced that they will wind down quantitative easing from 80 billion euro to 60 billion euro in April 2017, market participants wrongly interpreted the reduced amount as a taper. The euro therefore soared beyond 1.0830 as a first response but quickly retreated from its high at 1.0874 after the market realized that the ultimate stock of ECB bonds instead will be higher. While economists had been looking for asset purchases to continue six months beyond the previous end date, ECB policy makers added another three months of purchasing, boosting its balance sheet to 540 billion euros instead of 480 billion euros. Moreover, ECB president Mario Draghi insisted “that there is no tapering in sight”. This was finally reason enough to sell the euro below 1.07.

In a nutshell, the ECB may have bought some time and nine months of keeping their options open, but looking at the future, cutting to 60 billion euro per month could be a staging post to further cuts and thus, effectively tapering.

Whatever the case, we are looking back at a very profitable trading week, specifically in the EUR/USD. On balance, this week alone we generated a profit of 166 pips by our daily signal alerts and a great gain of 250 pips by our swing signals for the euro. We will therefore not invest our weekly profits today.

Have a wonderful weekend and trade well!

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro And Cable: Sideways Movement Continues

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Dear Traders,

Despite better than-expected U.S. economic data the greenback refused to trade higher versus its major peers – this was at least the case in the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. Having already fully discounted a Federal Reserve rate hike in December, investors will now wait for fresh hints about the future rate hike path before entering new long-term positions.

The euro traded sideways and, as expected, the currency pair remained confined to a trading range of nearly 100 pips. While the support at 1.0560 is still intact the euro might tend to test the 1.0715-resistance level, before resuming its overall downtrend. However, if the euro is unable to trade above 1.0670 we will shift our focus to a renewed break below 1.0580.

The cable remained stuck between 1.2530 and 1.2385. A break above 1.2530 may send the pound slightly higher towards 1.2550 but for the pound to rise towards higher targets this resistance level must be significantly breached in order to ignite fresh bullish potential. On the downside we will keep an eye on a break below 1.24.

The Bank of England publishes the results of its annual bank stress tests alongside its Financial Stability Report at 7:00 UTC. Following the report, BoE Governor Mark Carney will hold a press conference, so sterling traders should keep an eye on the price development as the pound might be vulnerable to volatile swings.

From the Eurozone we have the German Unemployment Report scheduled for release at 8:55 UTC, followed by Eurozone CPI data at 10:00 UTC. Chances are that these reports will have a positive impact on the euro, pushing it towards 1.0715. Furthermore, ECB President Mario Draghi speaks in Madrid at 12:30 UTC.

Last but not least, it should be worth watching the release of upcoming U.S. data, such as the ADP report due at 13:15 UTC, PCE numbers at 13:30 UTC and the Fed’s Beige Book at 19:00 UTC.

So it could be an interesting trading day with hopefully profitable trading chances.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Yellen Confirmed Rate Hike Expectations But Watch Out For Corrections Now

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Dear Traders,

And the winners were once again: Dollar bulls. However, it was no surprise that the dollar further strengthened after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled the likelihood of a December rate hike. She said that a rate increase “could well become appropriately relatively soon”, giving investors the green light to expect a move next month. Yellen cautioned that the Fed did not want to wait “too long”. Regarding the future economic outlook under Trump she said that policy makers “don’t know what’s going to happen” and that the Fed “will be watching the decisions that Congress makes and updating their economic outlook as the policy outlook becomes clearer”.

In a nutshell, the Fed remains on track to raise interest rates as Trump’s election has not altered the central bank’s short-term plans whereas in the future, “there’s a great deal of uncertainty”.

From a technical perspective, we all know that a rate increase is being well priced in BUT with more than three weeks to go before the FOMC rate decision in mid-December the dollar is clearly overbought, making corrections more likely in the near-term.

EUR/USD

The euro trades in a well-defined downward channel and based on that channel the euro might tend to drop towards 1.0525 before it corrects some losses. But be careful: The pair is oversold and we should now expect upcoming corrections towards 1.07 and 1.0750.

chart_eur_usd_4hours_snapshot18-11-16

The technical picture in the GBP/USD has not changed much. After dipping below 1.24 sterling bears will have to wait for a significant break below 1.2330 and further 1.23.

There are no economic reports scheduled for release today. The only interesting event for euro traders could be Draghi‘s speech at the Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt scheduled at 8:30 UTC.

We gained again a good profit this week and wish everyone a beautiful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Is The Cable Poised For A Breakout?

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Dear Traders,

Both of our major currency pairs ended the trading day virtually unchanged as there was not much consistency in the dollar’s performance Monday. The euro tested the 1.09-level on better than-expected Eurozone data. Manufacturing and Services PMI reports showed the fastest pace of economic momentum this year but this uptick was not sufficient to alter the sentiment in the EUR/USD. The euro trades on the increasing divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Europe and that is precisely the driver for the euro’s weakness. ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in Berlin today at 15:30 UTC and any comments on extending the QE program beyond March could put further pressure on the euro. Before his speech the German IFO index is due for release at 8:00 UTC but this report is not expected to have a significant impact on the currency pair. Technically, we wait for a significant break above 1.0910 in order to buy euros towards 1.0950. On the downside the 1.0860-level remains in focus whereas a break below that level may drive the euro as low as 1.0830.

The pound sterling remained within a tight trading range between 1.2250 and 1.2190. We see chances of an upcoming breakout of that narrow range provided that sterling breaks above 1.2235 on the upside or respectively below 1.2190 on the downside.

chart_gbp_usd_4hours_snapshot25-10-16

Bank of England Governor Carney appears at the House of Lords economic committee today at 14:35 UTC and any comments on future monetary policy changes could have an impact on the pound.

From the U.S. we Consumer Confidence scheduled for release at 14:00 UTC, a report which could influence the dollar’s performance.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

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We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

No Clarity On The ECB’s QE Program, Next Decision To Be Made In December

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Dear Traders,

Mario Draghi refused to provide any clear information on what the ECB plans to do in the coming months, leaving investors suitably disappointed. Neither did he refer to tapering nor to extending the ECB’s QE program. The only takeaway that we got from yesterday’s ECB meeting is to wait and to come back in December and see what the central bank thinks then. Nonetheless, Draghi’s stance could be described as somewhat more “dovish”, noting that there is no “convincing upward trend” in underlying inflation, suggesting that the ECB might announce an extension of its bond buying program, rather than a taper at their policy meeting December 8.

Market participants sent the euro on a roller coaster ride before it ended the trading day significantly lower against the greenback. During the Asian session the euro slightly broke below 1.09 and we now wait for a significant break below 1.0880 in order to sell euros towards the next support level at 1.0820/1.08. Current resistance levels are seen at 1.10 and 1.1050.

There was little consistency in the performance of the British pound yesterday. While the currency remains vulnerable to further losses given the troubled picture of the eventual Brexit negotiations at the EU summit, it remains a sell on rallies. We now focus on a downside break below 1.22 or on the other hand, an upside break above 1.23.

Apart from the EU summit there are no major economic reports scheduled for release today. We recommend not investing your weekly profits today and wish you a wonderful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

U.S. Dollar Back In Focus: Will U.S. Data Help Or Hurt?

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Dear Traders,

While both of our major currency pairs fluctuated more or less sideways yesterday, the U.S. dollar was gaining momentum as upbeat economic data boosted optimism on the world’s largest economy. A gauge of consumer confidence rose to its highest level in nine years, coming in as a positive surprise for the market.

The euro tested the 1.12-support but, for the time being, the currency was able to remain above that important price level. Once the 1.1190-level is significantly breached, we may see accelerated bearish momentum towards 1.1130. However, given the recent sideways trend in the EUR/USD we anticipate the price action to be confined to a range between 1.1285 and 1.1120.

GBP/USD

The pound sterling rebounded against the greenback Tuesday and rose to a high of 1.3026. While we expect any further gains in this pair to be limited until 1.3070, downward movements may also be limited towards the lower bound of the pounds recent trading range at 1.2920. Once the 1.29-mark is breached to the downside, we could see further losses towards 1.2820.

chart_gbp_usd_4hours_snapshot28-9-16

Today, we will watch U.S. Durable Goods Orders, scheduled for release at 12:30 UTC, which could have a major impact on the U.S. dollar. Furthermore, Fed chair Janet Yellen testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at 14:00 UTC. Market participants scrutinize her remarks, looking for clues regarding future monetary policy but Yellen is not expected to reveal anything new after last week’s news conference.

ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 14:30 UTC at a meeting of the German Parliament’s EU Committee, but his speech is not expected to have a significant impact on the euro.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

After The ECB Is Before The ECB

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Dear Traders,

As expected, the European Central Bank kept rates unchanged but it also refrained from making any changes to its asset-purchasing program for now. ECB President Mario Draghi merely reiterated that the ECB has the ‘full mandate’ to redesign QE, leaving the door open for additional stimulus. The market’s reaction to the announcement was thus rather subdued. The euro peaked at a high of 1.1327 but was not able to hold onto its gains. We see a resistance zone between 1.1350 and 1.14 and as long as the euro remains below that zone we maintain a neutral stance in the EUR/USD. If the euro drops below 1.1220 we see a higher likelihood of falling prices towards 1.1150.

The British pound tumbled below 1.33 but ended the day virtually unchanged against the U.S. dollar. In a nutshell, there was not much to be gained for daytraders. U.K. Trade Balance is scheduled for release at 8:30 UTC but we do not expect the report to have a major impact on the pound.

The market still lacks momentum and within that low-volatility environment we advise traders to take profits at smaller targets and secure weekly profits.

Have a wonderful weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

How To Trade The Current Market? Not At All!

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Dear Traders,

How one can trade in a market where even central bankers are unable to assess the economic situation and the need for further measures? The answer is simple: It is best to not trade at all. At least, this might be the motto of the financial markets at the moment. Traders who had hoped for some profitable fluctuations following the ECB announcement have been disappointed, once again.

The new trend among policy makers is to just admit that they are uncertain about how the big themes including Brexit and other political turmoil will affect the global economy. European Central Bank president Draghi refrained from providing new insights as the central bank has no clear picture of the impact of Brexit. He admitted on Thursday that nobody can see what the consequences might be as policy makers have not enough data to evaluate the situation right now. The mood therefore remains skeptical. The next ECB meeting is on September 8 and it remains to be seen whether the central bank has a clearer picture until then.

Looking at the technical chart we would actually assume that the euro might be primed for an upside correction but given the uncertain market sentiment all predictions of further movements could be useless. We are therefore not going to refer to the technical picture today, as there is no clear trend within a low volatile market environment.

German and Eurozone PMI reports are scheduled for release at 7:30 and 8:00 UTC but these reports are not expected to have a significant impact on the euro.

The cable’s price development ended in a narrow trading range, formatting a symmetrical triangle in the hourly chart which may predict upcoming price breakouts. With prices above 1.3245 bullish engagements could be rewarding whereas a break below 1.32 could reinvigorate bearish momentum in the short-term. Market participants will focus on the U.K.PMI report due for release at 8:30 UTC.

Although the market doesn’t offer profit opportunities at the moment, we will stay on the ball and try to make the best out of the current market conditions.

Have a nice weekend.

Daily Forex signals:

Additional daily and long-term entries are available for subscribers.

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co

 

 

 

Euro Struggles With 1.14 While Sterling Went Into A Tailspin

/in /by

Dear Traders,

The European Central Bank began buying corporate bonds on Wednesday and the euro climbed above the 1.14-mark. However, the slight appreciation of the euro can rather be attributed to the shift in expectations for Federal Reserve tightening. The U.S. dollar weakened as Investors see only a 58 percent chance that the Fed will raise rates by year-end. The greenback’s recent weakness contributed markedly to the increase in the euro but in general the dollar remains a buy on pullbacks as the Fed remains on track to raise interest rates in 2016.

The movements were, however, limited in the currency market. The euro rose merley 10 pips above the 1.14-barrier whereas it marked a current support at around 1.1350. ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak in Brussels at 7:00 UTC, which could impact on the euro.

From the U.S. we have Continuing and Initial Jobless Claims due for release at 12:30 UTC, but these reports are not expected to have a significant impact on the USD.

The British pound rebounded from a high at 1.46 as Brexit risks continue to put pressure on the currency. If sterling breaks again significantly below 1.4495, we see a greater chance of a renewed bearish move towards 1.4440 and 1.4385. However, above 1.4540 gains could be limited until 1.4580.

The only second-tier economic data from U.K. will be Trade Balance figures due for release at 8:30 UTC.

Daily Forex signals:

View our daily signal alerts https://www.maimar.co/category/daily-signals/

Subscribe to our daily signal service https://www.maimar.co/signals/

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

Copyright © All Rights Reserved 2016 Maimar-FX.

www.maimar.co